A comparison between WATA and PSA grading scales

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Here is my analysis of the conversion of wata sealed grading to PSA based on current pops.

*Disclaimer, this is my opinion and has not been presented or discussed by anyone prior to posting this here. This is entirely an evolving analysis, and is not representative of anyone other than my own. Video game grading is in its infancy, and pops are small, so things are subject to change as pops flush out.
*Disclaimer 2) this entire analysis is for cardboard games only. Hardcase games have an entirely separate set of nuisances which is out of the scope of this analysis. Please please please do not try and apply the below to Gamecube / Wii / DS / 3DS or any other game that is not cardboard
*Disclaimer 3) these are generalizations and will not hold on all specific games. There have been tweets and changes to the way that games have been graded over the years, especially when the seal is concerned.

To normalize the numbers and give a larger sample, I am going to run the analysis based on the following groupings :

GB : Red / Blue / yellow
GBC : Gold / Silver / Crystal
GBA : Ruby / Sapphire / Emerald / Leafgreen / FireRed

I am going to be looking at the top end, and I will be analyzing the results and attempting to convert the wata scale to PSA.

Mint : 10A++ / 9.8A++
NM/Mint : 9.8A+ / 9.6A++
NM+ : 9.8A / 9.6A+ / 9.4A++
NM : 9.4A+ / 9.2A++ / 9.0A++
NM- : 9.4A / 9.2A+ / 9.2A / 9.0A+ / 9.0A

Total wata pop (June 2023):
GB : 630
Mint : 24 (3.8%)
NM/Mint : 34 (5.4%)
NM+ : 50 (7.9%)
Total (NM+ to Mint): 108 (17.1%) :
NM : 81 (12.9%)
NM- : 139 (22.1%)
Total : 328 (52%)

GBC : 353
Mint : 8 (2.3%)
NM/Mint : 15 (4.2%)
NM+ : 41 (11.6%)
Total (NM+ to Mint) : 80 (18.1%)
NM : 46 (13.0%)
NM- : 68 (19.3%)
Total : 194 (55.0%)

GBA : 435
Mint : 23 (5.1%)
NM/Mint : 29 (6.7%)
NM+ : 43 (9.9%)
Total (NM+ to Mint) : 95 (21.8%)
NM : 51 (11.7%)
NM- : 94 (21.6%)
Total : 220 (55.2%)

This is where I will get a bit fuzzy, and I am open to amending this part of the analysis, and welcome your comments on how this compares to TCG grading, but I am going to give it a first attempt.

I acknowledge that there is historically an incentive to crack out cards and the pops are not a true indication of what is out there for cards that are not 10. So I’d expect the denominator to be incorrect as well numerator, but here we go anyways.

Alakazam 1st ed:
Total pop : 1837
PSA 10 : 91 (5.0%)
PSA 9 : 484 (26.3%)
PSA 8 : 354 (19.3%)
PSA 8-10 : 929 (50.5%)

Comparing these results:
Mint 9.8A++ :
GB/GBC is more rare than a PSA 10
GBA is about equivalent to PSA 10

NM/Mint + NM+:
It would appear that all of these grades would fall within the PSA 9 grouping with room for additional grades to be within the % of total pops. I’d bet that adding 9.4A+ and 9.2A++ pops would likely still fall in these % *(subsequently added data to cover this thought)

PSA 8 : I wasn’t expecting PSA 8/9/10 to make up 50% of the pop. If we look at where this falls for these games we get the following :
GB : 318 ~9.0A
GBC : 178 ~ 9.0A
GBA : 220 ~ 9.2A+

Conclusion :
PSA 10 = Mint : 9.8A++
PSA 9 = NM to NM/Mint : 9.0A++/9.2A+ to 9.8A+
PSA 8 = NM- : 9.0A to 9.2A+/9.4A

Or potentially:

PSA 10 = NM/Mint to Mint : 9.6A++ / 9.8A+ / 9.8A++
PSA 9 = NM to NM+ : 9.0A++/9.2A+ to 9.4A++/9.6A+
PSA 8 = NM- : 9.0A to 9.2A+/9.4A

*Additional disclaimer: please take this with a grain of salt and use this as a launching pad for discussions. This is probably the most detailed analysis I’ve seen published comparing the wata scale to the PSA scale, so please add your comments

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I’d like to add that based on how wide the range is for the conclusions above, it might be worth considering breaking it down and having a 0.5 scale added :

10: Mint : 10A++ / 9.8A++
9.5: NM+/Mint : 9.8A+ / 9.6A++
9.0: NM+ : 9.8A/9.6A+/9.4A++/9.4A+/9.2A++/9.0A++
8.0: NM- : 9.4A / 9.2A+ / 9.2A / 9.0A+ / 9.0A

Looking at this, I feel that this is actually a pretty fair assessment in my opinion. And this is probably pretty close to where I’d probably slot them. I’d love for someone who has solid experience in both cards and games to add their comments. I am weaker on the TCG side, so I’d love to hear how others feel about this.

I am a bit up in the air about including the 9.6A+ and 9.4A++ with a 9.2A++ and 9.0A++, maybe consider dropping that down to 8.0, or possibly break it out to 8.5. Not sure how the % grades will fall compared to PSA with this change. Also excluded from the entire groupings is 9.6A, also anything below an A seal probably would be below an 8.0, I think that is fair.

10: Mint : 10A++ / 9.8A++
9.5: NM+/Mint : 9.8A+ / 9.6A++
9.0: NM+ : 9.8A/9.6A+/9.4A++/9.4A+
8.5 : NM : 9.6A/9.2A++/9.0A++
8.0: NM- : 9.4A / 9.2A+ / 9.2A / 9.0A+ / 9.0A

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This is such a great resource, thank you! So to clarify

The 10, 9.5, 9.0 etc is where you think they would be on the psa scale? So a psa 9 is equivalent to a wata 9.8A/9.6A+/9.4A++/9.4A+?

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Based on populations compared to PSA, the damage might not be similar to the damage on a PSA, but it would possibly fall in the same relative scale. If that makes sense

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Ahh okay so it’s moreso based on pop then condition?

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I guess the analysis is based on a relativity basis. Where 50% of the PSA scale looks to be PSA8-10 and the above listed grades account for 50% of the wata grades.

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Ahhh gotcha. Thank you!