You make some very valid deductions but the thing is, with only opening 3 packs and a lack of rapport with the seller, it would be incredibly difficult for you to determine whether or not the packs are weighted.
It’s a lose lose situation with loose packs especially when you’re expecting a holo inside, because there is only a few scenarios that can happen:
- You open the pack and there is a holo in one of the packs. Either the seller missed one through weighting or they really do sell unweighted stuff. You still won’t know if the seller is legit or not.
- You open the packs and there is no holo inside. The seller weighs the pack and you feel scammed.
- You open the packs and there is no holo inside. The seller does not weigh the pack but you still feel scammed.
Unless you personally know the seller, you still won’t know their logic behind selling loose packs/booster mint rares.
You’re just going to have a bad time if you’re specifically expecting a holo. Honest sellers like gottaketchumall mentioned before how sometimes even honest, repeat customers who bought loose packs from him still thought they got weighted packs when they had a streak of getting nothing but non-holos in a bunch of packs, but in reality, they just got very unlucky. This is from the customer buying 36 loose packs from him and get only 1 full art. Source: www.elitefourum.com/t/roaring-skies-reprint/15408/65
With your odds, you basically have a 33% genuine chance of pulling a holo, which is already not looking great.