WOTC Hidden Supply?

I think WOTC cards are priced the way they are because of the sheer demand. It’s that simple. Crazy people like me will be buying them forever almost regardless of price, pop reports or print numbers.

At this point in my life with a stable income, the price of something is really just a measurement of how long it’s going to take me to acquire it. (Assuming it’s easily accessible like WOTC)

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The biggest point that I didn’t see mentioned yet is there are lots of cards that weren’t kept well by us kids and binders that were thrown away in the mid 2000s. I left my childhood cards with my cousin back in 2003 or so when I started losing interest. I asked for them back in 2007, but my aunt threw out all his and my cards.

That is supply that is gone forever and I kept my cards mint (so I think, ha)

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I actually disagree completely. The pop report is a better indicator of which cards are rare or at least more desirable rather than supply. For instance, the most abundant cards printed are probably energy or code cards but these are the least likely to be graded.

If you go by pop report, every set with a charizrord has at least 5x more charizords in the set than any other card

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Are there large hoards of sealed wotc products that haven’t seen the light of day in 20+ years? absolutely. Beyond that we can’t really determine anything. By “large hoards”, we again have no idea. Are we talking a few cases? dozens of boxes? hundreds? thousands, 10s of thousands? no clue. Anyone who says one thing or another is just guessing, albeit some people are probably more qualified to be making those guesses.

I guess I should add BOCTAOE to everything I post.

I would actually argue the rule is that high pop correlates with cards that have lower supply. In other words, a common card with a high pop is actually the exception

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This is such a good point! I know many try and rationalize all the factors for a cards price, but this is a big reason how & why people buy! I rarely check the pop for any card I am buying. Thats true for pretty much every collectible purchase; Its just a matter of is it within my monthly budget.

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It’s possible that there could be ‘hidden supply’ of certain WOTC era cards and sealed product out there for sure. Many sets were produced in large quantities and were definitely printed to demand or higher for the first couple years from the research I’ve done on it. However, with certain sets (like 1st Ed Base Set) it is unlikely someone is going to come across a metric ton of it at any point because it literally sold out very early on and in addition WOTC/Pokemon weren’t really sure how the reception for Pokemon was going to be, so from what I understand 1st Ed Base Set was unique in that it wasn’t produced nearly in the quantities as the other set printings were.

So I think if there is ‘hidden supply’ out there, it’s mainly going to be Base Unlimited and later sets that had a wider distribution and were produced during the heavier popularity/demand phase of early Pokemon releases. Conversely, some of the later sets where the popularity cooled were/are most likely produced in fewer numbers as well, but we can only speculate on all these ideas and theories at this time.

As far as to why WOTC is popular, it’s because in my view it has a huge amount of nostalgia for just about anyone under 40 who experienced the early Pokemon mania. Many of us want a piece of our childhood and for a lot of people Pokemon cards in some form is a way to experience those memories again, and it’s very hard to put a real price on that (hence people pay a ton for certain old WOTC cards). This is the same/similar experience for other older generations with Sports cards from the 1950s or 1980s, etc… or MTG cards from the early 90s and other nostalgic things that people have enjoyed & experienced over the years.

The last thing to mention on the WOTC cards is many of them also have seen a genuine attrition cycle. 20+ years old, many children did not handle or preserve them well, and many of them were played without sleeves. In addition, the manufacturing/QC on certain sets was pretty bad at times compared to many modern manufactured sets. So personally I’m in the belief that although there is a huge potential supply of WOTC out there, the stuff in NM+ condition is probably still nowhere near most modern sets and this is why PSA 10s and stuff can have a significant premium on some cards at this point to have survived in such condition after so many years and along with all the other attrition factors involved.

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You’re forgetting many things. When that moonbreon crashes it’s going to crash hard! It’s a great art but we’re currently over 1000 PSA 10s not to mention the 9s, the ungraded cards or the cards that haven’t been pulled from packs yet.

Now what happens when let’s say 100 of the 1000 plus Moonbreon owners want to sell all at the same time. Good luck is all I have to say

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In general, WotC cards aren’t really that expensive. In my opinion, when you look at the cards that are expensive, it’s fairly straight forward to understand why. 1st edition printings of the first appearances of some of the most popular species in the largest franchise in the world. WotC sets are historic and are naturally going to draw interest from most people who have meaningful connections with Pokemon. They have generations of inertia and among a growing sea of different cards being printed, the first is gonna stand out; if I say Snorlax, there’s probably a better chance your brain is going to Jungle, over some miscellaneous 2012 Snorlax card buried in a mid-era set, among varying rarities. They’re the original chase cards and they’re more simple/ easier to understand than say, a special art variant on a VMAX rarity that’s kinda technically a secret rare, but not really, and also shouldn’t be confused with the V special art, nor the V and VMAX CSRs. There’s also significantly less of them available in good condition, while simultaneously being less rare, so many people have memorable experiences with WotC cards.

Love 'em or hate 'em, WotC cards are the foundation of the hobby and drove the market for a long time. Millions of collectors had their first experiences with these cards. I’m sure there is probably a ton of product still out there, but relative to the demand, it’s just not gonna be enough to have any meaningful impact on anything imo.

The hobby actually has a pretty low price ceiling imo; $10-20k can buy you almost anything in this hobby, including some of the most desirable cards in pretty good condition.

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What does that mean?

I think that one cannot paint wotc in a wide brush. You would have to divide it, 1st or unlimited, from base set to jungle. Then gym heroes, then neo era (in which you could divide it even further before and after neo discovery) and finally the e reader era.

Each one of those gets more scarce as it comes closer to the e reader era, scarce within the wotc period of print runs.

I wouldnt say its actually expensive, throwing a wild number but the 90% unlimited cards in NM condition from wotc are still cheaper than a moonbreon and can compete with the giratina alt art from modern sets.

Now, 1st is more expensive of course even in lower grades or lower conditions but still in the broader scheme of things it puts into perspective how expensive some modern cards are if anything.

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I feel this exact way, my last set was neo destiny, although I’d never seen E-series until my re-entry into Pokémon I instantly felt connected to these sets.

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As someone who collects old commons that nobody cares about (see Oddish :frowning:) I actually run into the inverse inverse problem. The cards were so common that everyone threw them away and didn’t keep them in good condition. Children are more likely to sleeve and protect their Charizard than their Oddish. 37 out of the 70 Oddish cards I’m after have never even been graded by CGC. I live in a constant state of pain, put me out of my misery.

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Holy hell this went from 0 to 100 so fast.

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The cards you’re buying are so high end there’s no need to look at the pop report :slight_smile: they are rare.