People tend to look at ex PSA pop to help determine rarity of ex sets. This is a problem since pull rates differ wildly between sets. Early sets have high pull rates and later sets is just 2-3.
ex ruby and sapphire pop report varies from 146-274 total submissions per ex.
ex deoxys pop report varies from 74-114
This gives the impression that ex deoxys is much rarer since it has around half as many submissions. But the pull rate for ex’s in that set is 2-3 per box.
Here is a video of a girl recapping a box were she pulled 12 ex’s from one box. This is the only video I could find of someone opening a sealed ex ruby and sapphire booster box and not loose packs. I also heard before seeing this video that the ex pull rate could be that high.
Also compared to pull rates and the price of the unweighted packs times 3 for 1 in 3 hollow chance. Or ex era even worse. All the bulk is worth hardly anything. So taking all this into account pretty much every card in the hobby is still too cheap
Sacari if that’s the case, then the math would clearly imply that Ruby is a scarcer set. There are also 9 EX cards for Deoxys and only 8 for Ruby, so a comparison would have to distribute the copies of that 9th EX card back to the other 8. As I’ve never pulled a gold star, I’m also not sure if they occupy a slot where an EX card would otherwise be pulled. If so that would skew the argument even more in Ruby’s favor. Very interesting. In doesn’t change the fact that Deoxys EX cards appear to be quite scarce, but I had never thought of Ruby/Sandstorm/Dragon as scarcer sets than TRR and Deoxys. Mainly because I would have thought Nintendo would have really pushed the cards out in the beginning. But perhaps they played it more cautiously.
Is it certain that she pulled all those exs from one box? (She may have, but seems to say only she pulled them from the “set”—might’ve been multiple boxes)
Yea I was uncertain as well because I have opened two Ruby & Sapphire boxes and gotten 6 ex’s both times so I scrubbed through all of her opening videos and it seems she just got an insane box.
In terms of the amount of EX Deoxys exs graded, the pop actually reflects a larger print run of EX Deoxys than the e-Reader sets. There are 9 different exs in that set, and the pull-rate is roughly 2.5 (roughly every other box one ex pull is supplanted by a gold star; the median amount of exs is 3, though). So, on average, each ex appears roughly once every 3.6 boxes (.28 copies per box). Compare that to, for instance, Sandstorm, which (print runs aside) has the least ‘rare’ exs (individually). 7 different exs, and you pull, on average, 6 per box. So you pull a given ex roughly once every 1.2 boxes (.86 copies per box). So, ignoring print run sizes, there are 1/3rd as many of any given EX Deoxys ex as there are of any EX Sandstorm ex.
In my opinion, the best way to extrapolate print runs from PSA pops, in this instance, is to consider the avg. amount of each ex submitted, excluding outliers (since popular/unpopular Pokemon are submitted more/less frequently, of course). One would expect, of course, that if the print runs of EX Deoxys and Sandstorm were equal, that there would be three times as many EX Sandstorm exs in the pop. Ignoring the most frequently and infrequently submitted exs for both EX Deoxys and Sandstorm, respectively, though, the average number of exs submitted from each set actually reflects EX Deoxys having a print run of 1.5x that of Sandstorm. By this metric, FWIW, the lowest print run set is TMTA and the high print run set is FRLG, which very closely reflects popular opinion (as well as a variety of other metrics I’ve employed).
And on a separate note – I love seeing your appreciation for the EX era even more given your lack of sentimental attachment. Your perspectives on cards are not blinded by nostalgia in the same way as most collectors’. Putting personal nostalgia aside as much as I can, I also find the EX-era to be exceptionally interesting in terms of collectability. Reverse holo patterns, art styles, holo patterns, and so much more differ vastly between the sets – to the extent that each set has developed a unique identity. And the relatively low print runs of the era and how fragile the cards are (especially, as you know better than anyone, TRR and Deoxys cards), make it challenging enough to collect for it to be fun. I’ve collected complete sets of every MTG set from Unlimited through Scourge, and the collecting itself was kind of lame. Not only is there a general lack of art diversity (with the exception of sets like P3K and Mirage), the cards are very durable and are, nearly without exception, exceedingly easy to find in pack fresh, mint condition. The fact that EX-era cards are extremely tough to find in mint condition, coupled with how fragile the many of the reverses/exs are and how rare/expensive sealed product is, makes collecting it satisfying to collect in a way that I simply haven’t experienced in any other collecting pursuit. It makes me very happy to see others enjoying collecting it, too.
I don’t have any videos or a collection thread just yet . My sets are not yet complete (with the exception of the sets from Ruby through FRLG). But what I’m doing is working on NM/M raw master sets of every Pokemon set up through the EX-era. I’m also working on WotC right now (only 1st edition sets, though – except for e-Reader obviously). The issue is that I have a finite amount of money lol (as do most of us, I assume). So I’ve sold off (and continue to sell off) much of my MTG collection to fund this (which is/was nothing in the way of jonandek’s collection, but still solidly low six-figures). Point is: I’ll be done soon enough haha. And once I’m done with at least TRR (which I’m pretty close to completing – just need the gold stars and one more ex), then I’ll definitely make a collection thread.
And yes, I entirely agree with that sentiment! Once I’m done with WotC through EX-era, I very well might move onto D&P and beyond, which are sets that I’m more or less entirely unfamiliar with. But that’s a long ways (and probably at least $150k+) off lol.
@7l7l, 12 exs is lucky for sure(I think). I think the norm is 6, but 6-12 seems to be completely possible. But even at it’s absolute floor of 6, that is still 2x-3x more than the 2-3 ex pulls for most other ex series sets.
And yes she did pull 12, she has videos of all her pulls on youtube, but the videos are hard to digest because she breaks them up so much.
Yeah, I’ve never seen below 6 in a box. It’s almost always between 6 and 8. The pull rate is identical, or very nearly, as normal holo rares. Which honestly is just bizarre; unsure what Nintendo was thinking – making ‘ultra rares’ individually nearly twice as common as ‘holo rares.’ More involved collectors (the sort you encounter on this forum) generally know this info, of course, but I would imagine that most casual collectors and/or people just dipping their feet into the EX-era aren’t aware of this. The prices of the Nintendo e-Reader holos have been, IMO, artificially depressed for a long time because of this. It just doesn’t ‘feel’ right to pay more for a holo rare than an ultra rare – especially given how snazzy the exs look relative to the holos. So the price ceiling of the most expensive holo has been (and still is kind of – the prices are indeterminate at the moment) the price of least expensive ex. Of course, now things are starting to shift and we’re finally seeing some of the raw holo Nintendo e-Reader rares approaching the $50 mark (i.e., Jolteon, Salamence). Though many are still in the $5-$10 range (if you can find them), which is hilariously cheap.
@zorloth, It was nintendo’s first set so I just assume they had no idea what they were doing lmao.
I absolutely agree with the cheapness of the holo rares. I find it baffling and just don’t see the price holding much longer, especially with the current market.
@sacari Ah yes, that’s indeed true. I hadn’t thought about it like that when I read your comment. Sorry for the late response, I was asleep, haha. Your first comment was already clarity enough for what you meant. Since I collect Pikachu and Seviper in all languages and variations I’m indeed aware the foreign cards lack the E-reader symbols for the Nintendo sets, and lack the barcode for the WotC era e-series set. But your second comment with pictures is helpful for others reading this who didn’t knew about that.
I remember Ruby & Sapphire first run had 12 EX in box, this was corrected shortly after release and the first run sold out fast. Later runs had 6 average a box.
For Sandstorm nothing special happened.
Dragon had 2 different runs at the start. USA en EU boxes. European boxes could have the reverse TV Reporter from the start.
Re: Ruby & Sapphire – interesting! I didn’t know that. Were there 4 or 8 holo rares in those boxes? The relevance of all of this would mostly just come down to what portion of the total print run was with error box. Would also be interesting if there were an external way to tell if a box was early print run or not – such as can be done with original Zendikar in MTG.
I don’t remember how many holo rares. We were so suprised to see all those EX cards. I will ask a friend who helped me that time to open those boxes if he remembers.
Sorry to rez this thread as a lurker but i love this era and have been doing some homework.
One point I would make which i think isn’t nearly as loudly discussed as it should be is the ratio of the print run given over to theme decks as opposed to the booster boxes. A lot of my friends and I remember getting ruby & sapphire cards when we were younger along with the video games but i remember it was almost always the Ruby or Sapphire theme deck or the Armaldo/ Cradily Sandstorm ones. I think this also fed the sentiment that has since been dispelled that the ex era had boring art as the theme decks were stacked with the generic Sugimori art, whilst if you look at the sets as a whole most the arts are amazing for R&S - Dragon.
That i believe that the Pokemon Company logically would engage a bit of “synergy” between the TCG and the video games. I.e. there are generally larger print runs for sets that come out contemporaneously to a new pokemon game release. This is conjecture though.
Anyhow facts as I am aware are:
12bn cards were produced up to Neo Destiny
13bn Were made before april 2004 so I’d assume thats up to March as the pokemon company publishes a new number every March
14bn were printed up to December 2006 (this could be a March figure static, regurgitated by the news in December)
For whatever reason Diamond and Pearl’s release game wise was severely staggered from region to region and it is my recollection that the TCG had quite a bit of cross over where alot of the TCG boosters available during the launch of Diamond and Pearl were still Ex Era.
. My sets are not yet complete (with the exception of the sets from Ruby through FRLG). But what I’m doing is working on NM/M raw master sets of every Pokemon set up through the EX-era. I’m also working on WotC right now (only 1st edition sets, though – except for e-Reader obviously). The issue is that I have a finite amount of money lol (as do most of us, I assume). So I’ve sold off (and continue to sell off) much of my MTG collection to fund this (which is/was nothing in the way of jonandek’s collection, but still solidly low six-figures). Point is: I’ll be done soon enough haha. And once I’m done with at least TRR (which I’m pretty close to completing – just need the gold stars and one more ex), then I’ll definitely make a collection thread.