I collect Gen I and Gen II cards and I started collecting in 2008. Back then I could buy anything at any time. If I looked up a card there was always something to buy and the only concern was condition. Graded cards were not a majority presence like you see now. It actually took me a couple of years to even learn what graded cards were (at the time I thought they were proofs of some kind, I didn’t pay them much attention). That’s the thing I miss the most: just being able to find what I wanted any time I wanted it. Now I have a dozen saved searches I check several times a day just hoping a suitable option comes up for a handful of cards. Things changed slow at first.
Prices definitely were gradually rising year over year, but prices were still super low. I remember paying $60 each for Fossil and Jungle sets. I paid $80 for Rocket. 1st Edition Base Set Charizard was $300. This is the time period I assembled most of my Gen I First Editions. Sealed product was also much more common and not something people opened. They were collectible as their own thing. People often had a few sealed boosters or decks as prestige pieces in their collection, but they were low value add ons. A novelty.
I first became conscious things were changing in 2016. Prior to that it was slower. You noticed prices were going up but it was never enough to stop you from buying anything you wanted. But when Pokémon Go came out I think it was the beginning of what we see today — at least as far as vintage is concerned. Pokémon Go brought a ton lapsed fans back into the hobby who were uniquely interested in early Pokémon specifically. A lot of people started collections and demand for the WotC sets really rose sharply. I sold off a bunch of tertiary stuff at this time and put the money back in to my collection to buy different things. I am really glad I did this because it enabled me to lock down certain things before it became unfeasible. But I also regret letting certain things go, especially sealed stuff, because now that stuff barely exists. It’s bittersweet but I accept it now.
This was also when graded cards really began to take off. I don’t think there is any one thing that spurred this other than the more competitive market. I liked graded cards a lot at this point because it assured me a certain condition. I bought most of my holos as PSA 8s and 9s and cracked open the slabs and put them in my binder. Graded cards were more expensive, but it was a worthwhile premium for the certainty and security it afforded a collector like me who was picky about condition.
But every year after Pokémon Go, things got more and more extreme. Chasing easy money people sent more and more of their cards in for grading. The market now revolved entirely around graded cards. A lot of ungradeable cards were removed from circulation because people just threw them out. But anything that looked good got sent to PSA. By 2018 you were already at the point where ungraded cards were predominantly trash quality and all the cards in collectible condition were graded and commanding higher and higher premiums. I made a point to finish my Gen I sets and told myself I was done forever. I finished — I was out.
But the fervor over Generation II cards was still at a simmer. I always admired the Neo sets and thought maybe I would start that collection. I researched pricing and saw the most expensive card was still within my longterm means and decided to commit. I bought the four 1st edition sets without holos with the intention to collect the holos over the next few years. This was in 2019. This was… a bad time to begin these sets.
Generation II cards were still a bit insulated from the frenzy but in March 2020 lockdown lit the fuse and changed everything almost overnight. Cards increased 3x, 4x, 5x what they were just a couple months before. I am doing my best to finish these sets still, but I am praying for a crash to bring the costs down. I am too close to finishing to quit. I am closer than ever to finishing. But financially I am the furthest away I have ever been. It sucks.
Being a vintage collector in 2021 is both elating and depressing. The is why I quoted this post of yours specifically. On one hand, it is incredible that the cards I bought for very little money pre-2016 are worth 10x or even 20x what I spent on them. That kind of good fortune is jaw dropping and I am thankful for it. But it also makes acquiring new cards very difficult and costly. I can afford maybe one card every other month and every month that goes by increases the price. It is sad that it is this difficult to finish what I started and it is a downer to consider once I finish my current sets I will likely not collect cards anymore. I’ve been priced out.
Because of the modern market being what it is I have started to branch out in to TCG-adjacent stuff which is not usually considered collectible (flip coins, league books, advertisements, etc). There is still some joy in this. But I can tell I am in the twilight of my time with the hobby. My big hope is that after a few more years prices will moderate and stabilize lower than where they are now. Maybe then I can find something new to collect.