Expedition
After looking at the reverses from this set in detail, it is time to look at the whole set. The first thing that needs to be mentioned is that for this set, card rarities change with respect to earlier sets:
- Every pack now contains a regular rare. Holos are still one in every three packs, and they take the place of a common.
- The number of cards per pack is reduced from 11 to 9, the cost of the licence for the e-reader technology being given as the reason back then.
Thus, each pack contains on average 4 2/3 commons, 2 uncommons, 1 rare, 1/3 holos and 1 reverse.
As far as the sheets go, I wrote about the reverse sheet above. I was able to reconstruct the commons sheet, and determine the number of times each card appears on the uncommons sheet - which is kind of surprising as there are only two uncommons per pack, but the fact that this is a large set makes it easier. Raw data confirms the results. As usual, there is not enough data to say anything conclusive about the rarity of individual rares and holos.
The rarity table looks as follows (“O” for “other” denoting the six Basic Energy cards which are contained only in the Theme Decks of the Expedition, Aquapolis and Skyridge sets):
The RE3 reverses marked with a question mark are RE3 if my theory about the sheet composition described in the last instalment of this guide is correct.
The reconstructed commons sheet looks as follows:
† Koffing, Squirtle (Headbutt), Geodude, Tauros, Cyndaquil (Singe), Full Heal, Diglett, Qwilfish, Pikachu, Shellder, Cyndaquil (Tackle), Squirtle (Wave Splash), Spearow, Cubone, Magikarp, Vulpix, Krabby, Ponyta, Switch, Caterpie, Machop, Hoppip, Houndour, Poliwag, Rattata, Goldeen, Charmander (Tail Rap), Bulbasaur (Sleep Seed), Totodile (Paralyzing Gaze), Ekans, Abra, Gastly, Totodile (Surf), Moo-Moo Milk, Mareep, Caterpie, Cubone, Dratini, Abra, Tauros, Moo-Moo Milk, Goldeen, Full Heal, Clefairy, Oddish, Ponyta, Potion, Vulpix, Moo-Moo Milk, Geodude, Marill, Squirtle (Headbutt), Mareep, Totodile (Surf), Poliwag, Chikorita (Hypnotic Gaze), Switch, Bulbasaur (Sleep Seed), Diglett, Machop, Rattata, Chikorita (Razor Leaf), Charmander (Tail Rap), Hoppip, Pikachu, Gastly, Koffing, Bulbasaur (Tackle), Cyndaquil (Singe), Meowth, Krabby, Geodude, Ekans, Cyndaquil (Tackle), Shellder, Corsola, Houndour, Larvitar, Charmander (Gnaw), Magikarp, Bulbasaur (Tackle), Pidgey, Energy Search, Ponyta, Pikachu, Shellder, Hoppip, Ekans, Magikarp, Clefairy, Meowth, Goldeen, Cyndaquil (Tackle), Charmander (Tail Rap), Abra, Corsola, Gastly, Energy Search, Squirtle (Headbutt), Diglett, Machop, Rattata, Qwilfish, Squirtle (Wave Splash), Spearow, Totodile (Paralyzing Gaze), Krabby, Marill, Pidgey, Bulbasaur (Tackle), Energy Search, Clefairy, Oddish, Potion, Corsola, Chikorita (Hypnotic Gaze), Chikorita (Razor Leaf), Meowth, Larvitar, Dratini, Charmander (Gnaw) †
The raw data for the holos and rares looks as follows (dashed lines denoting where the transitions from H4 to H3 and from R4 to R3 would occur):
The following observations can be made:
- The RE2 reverses set a new record for “rarest card so far” with a pull rate of 1:165.
- All 10 known or likely RE3 reverses are reverses of C3 commons, so maybe the other 2 are, as well.
- While there are likely no artificial rarity differences, the size of the set and in consequence the fact that cards appear at most 4 times on any sheet leads to larger differences in individual card rarity than in older sets. (This phenomenon can be extrapolated to some modern sets with very large numbers of ultra-rare cards; the rarity differences between these will likely also be non-negligible even when no artificial differences exist.)
- Despite the large sample of 10 boxes, no holo Charizard (or holo Fearow) was observed pulled. This is almost certainly not statistically relevant.