The English Pokémon card rarity guide

Lost Thunder

For this set, as mentioned in my introductory post on the Sun & Moon series, I am assuming 3.6 “regular” Pokémon-GX, 1.1 full art Pokémon-GX and 1.3 full art Trainers/secret rares; on this last sheet, I am assuming each of the 22 secret rares to be printed 3 times, taking up 66 of the 100 slots on the 10x10 sheet, or 66.0%.

Interestingly, while this agrees well with the samples from @burpies and Derium (see the introductory post for their raw data), which show 65.2% and 63.2% secret rares respectively, my own sample is kind of an outlier with only 56.1% of the cards from that sheet being secret rares. Again, this shows it is necessary to be very carefull even with comparatively large samples.

The rarity table looks as follows:

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The two rares which appear as theme deck exclusive holos, Entei and Raikou, appear to be short-printed (R2).

The raw data for the holos. rares, Prism Star cards, Pokémon-GX, full art Pokémon and full art Trainers/secret rares is as follows:

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I also reconstructed the uncommons sheet, which I figured out is actually not that difficult if you take into account the sequence in which the pack are inserted in a box. It looks as follows:

† Vespiquen, Mina, Alolan Dugtrio, Pinsir, Choice Helmet, Morty, Stantler, Quilava, Girafarig, Carbink, Shiinotic, Kecleon (Unit Color 1), Aether Foundation Employee, Kirlia, Mantine, Ariados, Fairy Charm P, Professor Elm’s Lecture, Trumbeak, Pupitar, Lampent, Grovyle, Adventure Bag, Xatu, Sableye, Brionne, Electropower, Delibird, Bayleef, Sudowoodo, Counter Gain, Gogoat, Moomoo Milk, Fairy Charm G, Ninjask, Magearna, Lost Blender, Silcoon, Kahili, Dedenne, Heracross, Fairy Charm F, Skiploom, Pinsir, Grovyle, Custom Catcher, Fairy Charm Dr, Hitmontop, Faba, Electabuzz, Spell Tag, Cascoon, Wait and See Hammer, Net Ball, Kecleon (Unit Color 3), Sightseer, Whitney, Flaaffy, Kahili, Sudowoodo, Choice Helmet, Mantine, Girafarig, Mixed Herbs, Stantler, Morty, Carbink, Shiinotic, Fairy Charm P, Gogoat, Shuckle, Alolan Dugtrio, Professor Elm’s Lecture, Mina, Kirlia, Aether Foundation Employee, Quilava, Pupitar, Counter Gain, Ariados, Moomoo Milk, Vespiquen, Heracross, Pinsir, Memory Energy, Kecleon (Unit Color 1), Lampent, Sableye, Electropower, Xatu, Bayleef, Dedenne, Adventure Bag, Skiploom, Grovyle, Brionne, Trumbeak, Ninjask, Fairy Charm Dr, Mantine, Wait and See Hammer, Fairy Charm G, Silcoon, Faba, Sightseer, Delibird, Cascoon, Lost Blender, Custom Catcher, Hitmontop, Magearna, Fairy Charm F, Mixed Herbs, Flaaffy, Electabuzz, Kecleon (Unit Color 3), Net Ball, Whitney, Shuckle, Spell Tag, Memory Energy †

Edit 2024/03/24: Changed sequence length from 180 to 360, and slightly edited pull rates for full art Pokémon-GX as well as full art Trainers/secret rares.
Edit 2024/03/27: Added reconstruction for uncommons sheet

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