The English Pokémon card rarity guide

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Dragon Majesty

For this special set, I can rely on my own compiled data (1) as well as that provided by @burpies (2) in order to model the “box ratios” (the set was not sold in booster boxes, but they are practical for comparing with other sets). (Derium did not make a large opening video for this one.) Here is the data:

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The two samples are relatively consistent between each other (of course they may be partially relying on the same Youtube videos); at least they are more consistent than those for Shining Legends. The only big difference is the ratio between full art Trainers (FAT) and secret rares, which are assumed to be printed on the same sheet; interestingly, it is wildly different in the two samples. My model is based on the following three assumptions:

  • A “hit” (Pokémon-GX, full art or secret rare) in every fourth pack
  • A Prism Star card in every tenth pack
  • Reasonably similar pull rates between full art Pokémon and full art Trainers. This (and the fact that it is a “rounder” number, double that of the full art Pokémon) led me to modelling 2.4 full art Trainers/secret rares per “box” and not 2.6; if I assume 36 of 100 slots on this sheet taken up by full art Trainers (which my own sample would suggest), they still have higher pull rates than the full art Pokémon.

The rarity table is given below. Note that this set contains reverse Basic Energy cards, assumed to be printed on the same sheet as the other reverses, for a total of 65 reverses:

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The raw data for the holos, Pokémon-GX, full art Trainers/secret rares and Prism Star cards is given below (the full art Pokémon are assumed to have identical pull rates):

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Two concluding remarks:

  • The difference in observed pulls for the two Prism Star cards is noteworthy, but I am assuming no artificial rarity differences as I can’t say whether or not it is statistically significant.
  • I did not look at the reverses, so I don’t know if the reverse Basic Energy cards are RE1 or RE2 cards.

Edit 2024/03/24: Changed sequence length from 180 to 360, which has no impact on pull rates.
Edit 2024/05/05: Fixed error in rarity table (total number of reverses in 65, not 69)