The English Pokémon card rarity guide

Crimson Invasion

There aren’t many mysteries regarding the pull rates for this set. The number of “regular” Pokémon-GX appears to be reduced to 3.0 per box, and I am modelling the set to include 1.2 full art Pokémon and 1.2 full art Trainers/secret rares per box on average. On the latter sheet, I am assuming each of the 13 secret rares is printed 5 times, which fits the raw data well and leads to 0.78 secret rares per box on average. The only artificial rarity differences I think are likely are for the non-holo rares, where I would guess Hydreigon and Kommo-o, those ones featured as theme deck exclusive holos, are prnted 4 times each on the sheet, the other ones 6 or 7 times. The rarity table looks as follows:

The raw data for the holos, rares, Pokémon-GX, full art Pokémon and full art Trainers/secret rares looks as follows:

image




The uncommons sheet looks as follows:

† Psychic Memory, Staravia, Piloswine, Lusamine, Hakamo-o, Haunter, Devoured Field, Zweilous, Gastrodon, Sea of Nothingness, Miltank, Cinccino, Gladion, Lairon, Alolan Graveler, Emolga, Mawile, Grumpig, Peeking Red Card, Diggersby, Hakamo-o, Counter Catcher, Fighting Memory, Counter Energy, Accelgor, Lusamine, Staravia, Kakuna, Dashing Pouch, Psychic Memory, Piloswine, Devoured Field, Zweilous, Miltank, Sea of Nothingness, Counter Energy, Gladion, Cinccino, Lairon, Emolga, Alolan Graveler, Fighting Memory, Gastrodon, Counter Energy, Mawile, Grumpig, Staravia, Counter Catcher, Diggersby, Accelgor, Kakuna, Lusamine, Haunter, Dashing Pouch, Hakamo-o, Miltank, Peeking Red Card, Piloswine, Zweilous, Cinccino, Grumpig, Emolga, Gladion, Staravia, Alolan Graveler, Mawile, Psychic Memory, Lairon, Fighting Memory, Devoured Field, Gastrodon, Kakuna, Accelgor, Sea of Nothingness, Haunter, Counter Catcher, Hakamo-o, Diggersby, Piloswine, Counter Energy, Miltank, Zweilous, Gastrodon, Peeking Red Card, Cinccino, Alolan Graveler, Devoured Field, Emolga, Grumpig, Lusamine, Lairon, Mawile, Dashing Pouch, Gladion, Staravia, Accelgor, Kakuna, Miltank, Psychic Memory, Haunter, Fighting Memory, Hakamo-o, Sea of Nothingness, Diggersby, Alolan Graveler, Piloswine, Peeking Red Card, Gastrodon, Zweilous, Haunter, Cinccino, Grumpig, Emolga, Counter Catcher, Mawile, Diggersby, Fighting Memory, Dashing Pouch, Lairon, Kakuna, Accelgor †

Edit 2024/03/24: Changed sequence length from 180 to 360; this has no impact on pull rates.
Edit 2024/04/06: Added reconstruction of uncommons sheet.