Fates Collide
After Generations, back to a set that is relatively unremarkable. The box ratios based on my sample and the data provided by Danny Phantump (see introductory poast on the XY BREAK Series) are estimated to be 5.2 holos, 4.4 “regular” Pokémon-EX and 2.4 full arts/secret rares, as well as 2.4 BREAK cards. I am assuming the odds of pulling a secret rare are the same as in the other sets going back to Primal Clash, and the sole secret rare (Alakazam EX) is thus printed 12 times on the full art sheet, making it less rare than the full arts. The rarity table looks as follows:
Lugia and Zygarde, the two rares which are featured as theme deck exclusive holos, account for 49 / 693 = 8.56 / 121 of the rares in the sample (see raw data below). I am assuming them to be R5 cards according to my tendency of being cautious when assuming artificial rarity differences, though R4 would also be a possibility. Given the fact that the entire set has only 5 holos, this makes these two cards rarer than any of those. Another noteworthy thing about the set is the large number of uncommons compared to that of commons.
The raw data for the holos, rares, Pokémon-EX and full arts/secret rares is given below, the dashed line indicating where the transition from H25 to H24, etc., would occur (the BREAK cards are assumed to all have the same rarity):
Edit 2024/03/24: Changed sequence length from 180 to 360. This has no impact on pull rates.