Phantom Forces
This set is generally similar to the last two, except that it contains two “Team Flare Hyper Gear” holos with a red border, which will have required a separate sheet to print them, and that of the three secret rares, one of them, Dialga EX, is textured and was printed on the same sheet as the full arts, as can be seen from the miscuts below. The other two, Mega Gengar EX and Mega Manectric EX, are assumed to be printed on the same sheet as the “regular” Pokémon-EX.
The observed box ratios from 28 boxes opened on Youtube were 6.14 “normal” holos, 0.86 Team Flare Hyper Gear holos, 3.50 Pokémon-EX/secret rares and 1.57 full arts/secret rares.
I will model them as follows: 6.1 “normal” holos, 0.9 Team Flare Hyper Gear holos, 3.5 Pokémon-EX/secret rares and 1.5 full arts/secret rares. This is similar to the last two sets, except:
- The number of cards from the full art sheet increases by 0.1 per box. This is reasonable as the sheet now not only includes full arts, but a secret rare as well. The increase seems to come at the expense of the holos.
- There are two holo sheets (yellow borders and red borders). I assigned them ratios 6.1 and 0.9 per box based on the raw data. The boxes contain either 0, 1 or 2 “Team Flare Hyper Gear” cards. A ratio of 6.0 and 1.0 per box would make more sense as it would give all holos basically the same rarity, and the sample size isn’t large enough to rule this out by any means in my opinion, but 6.1 and 0.9 just fits the observed data better.
That leaves it to be determined how many times the secret rares were printed on the sheets. I chose to model Mega Gengar EX and Mega Manectric EX as EX3 cards (printed 3 times each on the Pokémon-EX sheet) and Dialga-EX as a FA7 card (printed 7 times on the full art sheet). This gives all of them the exact same rarity, and all secret rares together a ratio of about 1 in 3 boxes. (The sample data yielded 1 Gengar, 1 Manectric and 4 Dialga, but that is not statistically relevant in my opinion.)
The rarity table looks as follows:
As in XY base set and Furious Fists (but not Flashfire), the two rares featured as theme deck exclusive holos, Galvantula and Talonflame, appear to have lower pull rates than the others, so I am modelling them as R4 cards, which best fits the raw data.
Here is the raw data for the holos, rares, Pokémon-EX and full arts (the latter two including secret rares):
As to the Team Flare Hyper Gear cards, Head Ringer appeared 13 times and Jamming Net 11 times.
The reverse sheet looks as follows:
† Bunnelby, Hand Scope, Goodra, Mystery Energy, Robo Substitute, Crobat, Purrloin, Finneon, Pyroar, VS Seeker, Gulpin, Zubat, Lysandre’s Trump Card, Regigigas, Chansey, Roller Skates, Swalot, Karrablast, Spearow, Feraligatr, Xerosic, Whismur, Goomy, Manectric Spirit Link, Roggenrola, Murkrow, Shauna, Musharna, Fletchling, Yanma, Heliolisk, Double Colorless Energy, Totodile, Alomomola, Professor Sycamore, Munna, Dedenne, Steel Shelter, Gliscor, Poochyena, Exploud, Chandelure, Gligar, Klefki, Joltik, Venonat, Venomoth, Helioptile (Quick Attack), Bronzor, Honchkrow, Frillish, Diggersby, Gourgeist, Roggenrola, Zweilous, Bunnelby, Target Whistle, Yanmega, Karrablast, Krabby, Mightyena, Litwick, Swadloon, Gigalith, Sewaddle, Sliggoo, Totodile, Tierno, Leavanny, Munna, Purrloin, Spiritomb, Litleo, Fletchinder, Heatran, Murkrow, Fearow, Wobbuffet, Trick Coin, Talonflame, Chansey, Kingler, Bronzong, Dimension Valley, Yanma, Slurpuff, Venonat, Girafarig, Lampent, Gulpin, Jellicent, Helioptile (Tail Rap), Croconaw, Dedenne, Enhanced Hammer, Furfrou, Diancie, Gligar, Loudred, Boldore, Goomy, Pachirisu, Skarmory, Lumineon, Frillish, Gengar Spirit Link, AZ, Hydreigon, Deino, Litwick, Liepard, Swirlix, Galvantula, Bronzor, Golbat, Pumpkaboo, Sewaddle, Battle Compressor, Litleo, Escavalier, Blissey †
The RE2 cards are 19 reverse commons.
Edit 2024/03/24: Changed the sequence length from 216 to 360. this affects the pull rates of the holos (both yellow border and “Team Flare Hyper Gear” red border)