The English Pokémon card rarity guide

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Base Set 2

Base Set 2, as mentioned in my last post, is the first set for which not all sheets are known. Images exist for the rares, uncommons (a cyan-only error sheet) and Basic Energies sheets, though some of the cards on the uncommons sheet are undecipherable.

I was able to reconstruct the commons sheet from Youtube videos (I plan to make a post on how I go about this later on) and also determine the undecipherable cards on the uncommons sheet. There is not enough information to give exact estimates for the holo pull rates.

The rarity table for Base Set 2 is give below:

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The uncommons sheet (including the obscured cards) is as follows:

Dodrio, Butterfree, Machoke, Defender, Arcanine, Dratini, Exeggutor, Dewgong, Energy Retrieval, Haunter, Farfetch’d, Ivysaur, Marowak, Full Heal, Fearow, Kakuna, Magikarp, Maintenance, Charmeleon, Lickitung, Nidorina, Rhydon, PlusPower, Growlithe, Persian, Nidorino, Poliwhirl, Pokémon Center, Growlithe, Raticate, Parasect, Machoke, Pokédex, Pokémon Center, Tauros, Weepinbell, Seaking, Professor Oak, Jynx, Double Colorless Energy, Butterfree, Marowak, Super Potion, Magikarp, Magmar, Haunter, Exeggutor, Dodrio, Seel, Defender, Arcanine, Seaking, Kadabra, Weepinbell, Energy Retrieval, Jynx, Dewgong, Farfetch’d, Ivysaur, Rhydon, Full Heal, Haunter, Fearow, Kakuna, Wartortle, Maintenance, Charmeleon, Lickitung, Nidorina, Machoke, PlusPower, Magikarp, Persian, Nidorino, Dewgong, Pokémon Center, Growlithe, Raticate, Parasect, Poliwhirl, Double Colorless Energy, Marowak, Tauros, Weepinbell, Charmeleon, Pokédex, Magmar, Double Colorless Energy, Seel, Professor Oak, Arcanine, Dratini, Butterfree, Super Potion, Rhydon, Defender, Farfetch’d, Parasect, Poliwhirl, Kadabra, Fearow, Exeggutor, Seaking, Energy Retrieval, Lickitung, Ivysaur, Full Heal, Professor Oak, Dratini, Kakuna, Super Potion, Wartortle, Maintenance, Raticate, Nidorina, Seel, PlusPower, Persian, Nidorino, Wartortle, Kadabra

The commons sheet has the card sequence shown below. It is not possible to say where the sequence begins and ends, thus the dagger marks:

† Abra, Switch, Staryu, Nidoran m, Spearow, Gastly, Voltorb, Paras, Bellsprout, Goldeen, Venonat, Bill, Bulbasaur, Cubone, Doduo, Magnemite, Caterpie, Poliwag, Jigglypuff, Energy Removal, Rhyhorn, Diglett, Drowzee, Charmander, Exeggcute, Sandshrew, Meowth, Bellsprout, Nidoran f, Machop, Pidgey, Potion, Nidoran m, Gust of Wind, Gastly, Goldeen, Paras, Onix, Rattata, Gust of Wind, Diglett, Tangela, Pikachu, Doduo, Starmie, Rhyhorn, Venonat, Abra, Poké Ball, Pikachu, Weedle, Doduo, Staryu, Sandshrew, Poliwag, Vulpix, Bellsprout, Voltorb, Energy Removal, Pidgey, Potion, Cubone, Venonat, Drowzee, Magnemite, Bill, Bulbasaur, Jigglypuff, Switch, Spearow, Caterpie, Staryu, Magnemite, Bill, Exeggcute, Abra, Meowth, Squirtle, Machop, Metapod, Gastly, Starmie, Exeggcute, Nidoran f, Vulpix, Energy Removal, Onix, Nidoran m, Pidgey, Poliwag, Rattata, Paras, Rhyhorn, Meowth, Gust of Wind, Squirtle, Tangela, Switch, Poké Ball, Weedle, Sandshrew, Vulpix, Jigglypuff, Goldeen, Bulbasaur, Weedle, Rattata, Metapod, Charmander, Spearow, Starmie, Potion, Squirtle, Diglett, Pikachu, Charmander, Metapod, Cubone, Drowzee, Voltorb, Nidoran f †

For the holos, the raw Youtube data from 10 boxes (121 holos in total) is as follows (the dashed line marking where the transition from H7 to H6 would occur):

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A few general observations can be made:

  • The energy sheet is the same as for Base Set, even though the rarity distribution only partially makes sense. Psychic and Lightning Energies, the most common, still feature in only one theme deck, but so does Fire Energy, one of the two rarest. Grass, which is moderately common, still features in two theme decks. Fighting Energy, the other of the two rarest, still features in the starter deck and in one theme deck. Water is still one of the moderately common energies despite featuring in the starter deck and two theme decks. This means Fire Energy is kind of hard to come by, despite Fire decks requiring a lot of it.

  • The rares sheet shows a lot of instances where the same card appears in close proximity, which leads to lots of double rares appearing in booster boxes. If the holos sheet looks similar, this may partially explain the high variance in the observed pull rates (a random run of 12 holos from the sheet is more likely to contain duplicates and thus impact the observed statistics more).

  • I would not be surprised if Charizard, Blastoise and Venusaur are all among the rarer (H6) holos just like in Base Set unlimited.