The absurdity of conditional rarity

Saw a guy on IG selling one privately today

As much as I liked the luxury car and designer brand name analogies, the direct parallels to the valuation of condition are not there. Hence, I present to you all the $2,000-4,000 mango:

The Taiyo no Tamago (Egg of the Sun) mango is a specific, premium classification with an A and AA grade, comparable to BGS 10 Pristine and Black Label:

Spending thousands of dollars for a fruit that will either need to be eaten or tossed out by the end of the week may seem
curious. In addition, the exact variety of this mango is pretty common and can be purchased in a lot of grocery stores for a few dollars (I actually had this mango tree grown from seed, purchased from a local grocery store for a few dollars, in my backyard as a kid). The taste of the mango is quite superb for any mango lovers out there, but the premium is absolutely in the valuation of the “professional third party,” very comparable to any graded slab in the card space because the company became an established authenticator with parameters accepted by the community.

Before grading was so mainstream in Pokemon, the two Milotic ex’s would have been priced at the exact same if sold as raw cards given their condition. I do not believe anyone is disputing that graded cards should have a premium the higher the grade. There are obviously multiple reasons besides the label that can help justify purchasing at such a premium (even for fruit that will last only a week).

The general sentiment of these recurring threads, I believe, has been understanding “how much is actually too much?”

As I’ve always said before, the final determining factor for someone paying a premium is what the buyer is willing to pay, and not some inherent “market value.” I think what would definitely be interesting to see, however, is identifying the average multiplier the premium from a 9 to 10 would fetch in different archetypes of Pokemon - set cards, set eras, trophies, etc. and cross referencing that data with existing pop differences, era of sale (post pandemic, post Go, etc.), and discrepancies in grading quality by the grading companies.

cpbog1

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Curious if this one is going to sell for $7,200 as well.

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/items/3778886

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These types of items tend to fall off quickly with repeated sales. But we will see :woman_shrugging:

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Exactly my thoughts too. :upside_down_face:

I’ve found myself beginning to appreciate higher end vintage set cards like the Neo shinings in PSA 8 grades. Especially if I graded the card myself. As a collector with increasing financial responsibilites (kids/house/etc), the bang for your buck can’t be beat.

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Great example of people paying for the label
 this PSA 10 is so rough but it fetched $7,200 in auction.

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/premier-auction/8136


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As long as it has a 10 on the front the actual condition doesn’t matter lol. Thanks for another data point.

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I agree

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lol

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And another sold on May 16th for $5,400 :melting_face:

https://sales-history.pwccmarketplace.com/items/WEEKLY3778886

Holy Moly how would this even get a 9?

:person_shrugging:

Imagine buying the card condition, grade is all that matters if you’re buying a graded card

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Looks like a strong candidate for a bgs black label imo.

I’m pretty surprised it’s still selling for >$3k, tbh. The pop on it has increased massively – from 5/21 to 5/22 it went from 8 to 12. And then from 5/22 to 5/23, it went from 12 to 24. It went from being the lowest pop ex in the set to being one the higher pop exs from the set. The fact that it’s still holding a 10x premium relative to the PSA 9 value is pretty crazy.

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Whoah I didn’t know that the PSA 10 pop grew that much, but it doesn’t surprise me too much. Lots of incentive to grade cards that are fetching 10x premiums. Thanks for providing this useful information!

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When the grader put in their two weeks notice and just bangs out all the cards


It’s a strange one. I picked up a 9.5 CGC 1st Edition Raichu and it’s beautiful. Everything about it is a great condition and then you flick it in the light and the one scratch down the holo makes it show why it’s not a 10. That’s fine, that’s how it should work IMO.

But then one sold on ebay a few weeks back, same grade but look at those corners. CGC aren’t generally that loose in the case so how did that make a 9.5?

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/bbUAAOSwcbZkEMHI/s-l1600.jpg

That’s just how grading works. It’s not perfectly consistent. You’ll find 10’s that look worse than that and 9’s (or 5.5’s, even) that look better. The card in question being a 9.5 seems fine. Lenient, sure, but doesn’t hang at all in the grand scheme of blatant misgrades.

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