15 Likes
Thatās my point. Collecting expensive and rare objects isnāt about any functional advantage anyways, itās just chasing some feeling of satisfaction in āI have a thing that other people donāt/canāt haveā. Trying to make a rational case for how much a label should objectively cost just seems irrelevant. Itās worth near $0 to me, personally, but plenty of people disagree. If there are 5 copies of a label but 6 people want it, then itās worth whatever those people are willing to pay.
1 Like
Some of the disparity between PSA 10ās and PSA 9ās is likely the result of Pokemon attracting more main stream collectors, particularly those with more capital to the hobby. We see the same phenomenon with other high end luxury markets like real estate, handbags or first class airline seats. The newly constructed 14th floor luxury condo may be the exact same condition as the 15th floor penthouse unit, just slightly smaller and without such a large balcony. Yet the penthouse unit can sell for many multiples of what the floor below it would because it has the stamp āPHā on it, or itās perceived to be the ābest in the buildingā or the ābest in the neighborhoodā. Both units have the same address, and both units are in the same neighborhood.
Another thought that donāt think getās talked about enough in Pokemon is we live in an unregulated art/collectable market. You donāt have regulations from the SEC or other government entities oversee acquisitions. The reason I bring this up is because we donāt always have clear information on who is buying or selling the cards. For example if the population of Milotic PSA 10 cards is 19, itās possible that there is one collector/buyer that owns 15 of those 19 cards (instead of 19 individual owners). Valuations of cards tend to be highly correlated to the last sales comp of the card, so if that collector who owns 15 of the 19 cards āoverpaysā for a PSA 10 copy for $7,200. The value of all their other 15 cards is now worth $7,200 each. As a result they can take on leverage/debt against those higher valuations to acquire more assets. As control over a limited supply increases, the buyer can afford to pay more for the individual units, the valuation of their existing holdings increases with each purchase, AND they control more of the buying/selling for that market. As long as they are not put in a position where they need to sell assets, this can go on into perpetuity. I realize this may seem like a āfarfetchādā idea to some, however this happens regularly in the art market where particularly large buyers focus on buying and controlling a single market. There is a columbian/jewish family āThe Mugrabisā that have done this particularly well with works from Andy Warhol. Debeers is another famous example, whereby they have controlled 80-85% of the diamond market for over 135 years since 1888.
11 Likes
After reading this I have decided to downgrade my Masaki 10 gengar to a 9.
Also, I would rather have a PSA 9 illustrator and a few million bucks than a 10 illustrator, but if you have Logan Paul Money, why not?
1 Like
Exactly what I did with the 1st Ed Base Charizard I bought recently. I trust grading as much as I can, but you can definitely find some real value in lower grades at times when you focus more on the card and less on the grade/label, subjective to ones own conditional preferences of course.
2 Likes
This is something Iāve been thinking about for the past while. Conditional rarity initially formed the cornerstone of my collecting focus and Iāve chased numerous low pop PSA 10 set cards as a result. However, Iām starting to find that the high cost of 10s makes it hard to make progress on my overall collection. In the past, if I felt a card was popular or hard to grade, it was probably worth picking up in a 10, even if I wasnāt entirely fond of the card. Recently, Iāve felt more at odds with that point of view because I was spending a lot on cards that didnāt really make me happy.
Picking up some older JP promos for cheap and making significant progress on a couple WOTC sets by opting to pick up PSA 9s instead of 10s has certainly changed my perception on conditional rarity being the apex of a collection. I still want perfect copies of my favourite cards - that much hasnāt changed - but Iām just as happy (if not more) by picking up a 9 for a good price rather than paying a 5x - 10x premium for a copy that is just marginally (maybe not even) better.
The conclusion Iāve come to is a 10 should be reserved for cards I love and want to treasure or cherish for a long time. For everything else, a 9 is more than fine for having the card.
8 Likes
I think that the main issue with conditional rarity is the inconsistency of grading. If PSA 10s were reliably better-condition cards than PSA 9s, then I could absolutely stomach a humungous price difference.
The problem is that thereās too much overlap between PSA 9 and 10 quality cards. Sure, PSA 10s are on average nicer than PSA 9s. But there are a significant portion of 9s that are stronger than a significant portion of 10s, which troubles me. Itās why I ādowngradedā my PSA 10 sets into CGC 9.5s. The psychology of 10s is strong, and mostly irrational, IMO.
9 Likes
My attitude when it comes to individual PSA 10s is that if I think the condition of the card warrants the grade (not just what the label says) and I really want the card in the highest condition grade, then Iāll consider shelling out for it over the PSA 9. Otherwise, Iāll just get a nice-looking PSA 9 copy or just wait until I find a PSA 10 that deserves the grade. If I were to buy a weak PSA 10 just for the label, Iād just be disappointed and want to replace it down the road anyways.
That said, itās easy for this logic to fall by the wayside a bit when youāre close to completing a set and missing that last low pop PSA 10. At that point, do you just let it pass by and wait for a stronger copy for who knows how long, or do you bite the bullet then and there and just hope to replace it later? Add to that the competition from other buyers potentially thinking the same thing, and itās easy to see why a PSA 10 might warrant an exorbitant price compared to the PSA 9. At that point itās not about owning the card in peak condition vs feeling fulfilled at having completed a set as defined by an inconsistent grading company (which may be irrational but is a thing people do). I think this distinction is important to make though because itās two completely different collecting perspectives/goals that end up driving the price of a card down a particular trajectory.
3 Likes
Condition premium is one thing, I cringe when I see sequential certs premium. So dumb.
8 Likes
My main goal is a 10 set of my favourite species. There is just something about the completionism of a PSA 10 set that is really appealing to me. Itās also a way of making the challenge harder, as I will have to find, and in many cases grade myself, cards that are quite low pop. By going for 10s Iām making the challenge take years instead of months, and Iām okay with that. The journey is part of the fun, even if it makes no sense financially.
I have plenty of 9s in my collection, but setting a very lofty challenge of collecting a master set of 10s will keep me deeply engaged in this hobby for years.
10 sets make no sense from a financial / value standpoint, and iām alright with that
7 Likes
Condition rarity is a thing in almost every collectible hobby. Books, comics, coins, and biggest of all jewelry. For some jewels you need a loupe and canāt see with the naked eye the quality of the stone. This thread kinda reads as a weird un-necessary public flex that youāre above irrational collectors for collecting 9s.
That said it does annoy me when people assume PSA 10 must be everyoneās ultimate goal / are shocked and sad for me that I donāt own a 1st Ed PSA 10 Base Chansey or collect PSA 10 Chanseys at all. I have no interest in paying a trophy card price for a card that will probably have holo scratches.
14 Likes
A flex? Iām not sure where youāre getting that from. I never said a single thing about my own collection - of which I have many 10s for the record. I didnāt even mention PSA 9s in the OP, I used a CGC 8.5 as an example.
I purposely went out of my way to say people are free to collect whatever they want. Collecting is a personal thing, thereās no right or wrong way to do it. Even if I think a purchase is irrational, thatās not condemnation - everything about collecting PokĆ©mon cards is based in emotion. Iām sure many things that Iāve bought would also appear irrational to many people.
Iām just here for a discussion. If I wanted to flex or cared how I stack up against other people Iād spend my time on Instagram instead
13 Likes
Yeah, that is a pretty steep price to pay for a 10. Iāll take this 8.5 any day over paying that sort of premiumā¦
Condition rarity is definitely a legitimate thing ā the question is whether PSA (or BGS or CGC, for that matter) are capable of reliably differentiating āmintā and āgem mintā cards. I donāt think the difference is arbitrary, but I do doubt grading companiesā abilities to distinguish between mint and gem mint cards.
But maybe this is not quite the same problem that PFM has with conditional rarity. Because I could totally understand the price difference between those two Milotics if we knew for a fact that the PSA 10 was legitimately gem mint.
Now Iām actually curious, @pfm ā if PSA was capable of reliably differentiating mint and gem mint condition cards, would you still view the price difference of those Milotics as unreasonable?
I feel like if grades were consistent and obvious, there would be little point to cross grading unless you just want to keep your slab company preferences uniform across your collection.
I think the absurdity of conditional rarity lies in the minuscule difference in what are already minty cards, being valued (imo)so much higher if they have one companyās opinion and different color label on it. In many cases converting the value of a card to thousands instead of hundreds.
Black labels are a status symbol at this point. I think people crave that. People want to feel like they have something others donāt. Is that fulfilling long term? No, but thatās the human condition.
Also, I believe Becketts only leg they have left to stand on is that black label. They have consistently been lagging behind the past few years in terms of quantity of cards graded overall and in customer service (seen many examples from friends who have subbed through them) as well. Sad to watch it happen but anyways. Tangent over
From my perspective weāve had this discussion a million times before about PSA 10s and idk what more can be said at this point.
Regarding putting down PSA 10 collectors, it may not have been your intention, but you are insinuating they only collect these cards to be able to show off they own PSA 10s. Plenty of people have private PSA 10 collections and enjoy collecting them flex or no flex.
" What the actual product here is the ability to say you have a Milotic ex PSA 10"
4 Likes
Thereās definitely a ātime and placeā for PSA 10s in my collection. My experiences may be anecdotal, but Iāve found that many Vintage Japanese PSA 9s have quite a bit of damage compared to PSA 10s. So I will occasionally seek out a PSA 10 for my Vintage Japanese cards because the improvement in condition is actually noticeable.
For Vintage English, the difference (to me) is often much less pronounced.
4 Likes
For me 10ās are a luxury, thatās not a reality for everybody but hey these are also luxury products haha. We donāt neeeed these but if I find a 10 that deserves its grade and itās priced right, Iāll snag it.
But yeah 10ās are mostly for me not worth it or I can find a 9 that looks just as nice in my budget. Iām a condition snob at heart so the foil must be clean. That I cannot compromise on lol
1 Like
I think this is a large piece of the puzzle. I like topics like this because I havenāt 100% made up my mind on a lot pf this and Iām happy to be challenged.
I think in a hypothetical world where a PSA N was always better condition than a PSA N-1 this would make a lot more sense. It still would be absurd that a corner ding is worth -$7000 but i would get it more. Then you could absolutely say that people are genuinely paying for condition.
It really comes down to the case-swapping thing I brought up in the OP. If the cardās price is correlated more with the case than the actual condition, then you arenāt paying for condition. I think thatās really the main point Iām trying to get to here. If someone is genuinely ok with paying that much extra just for the label then they get it too. They should just continue to do their thing. Ultimately no one should care what I think about how they collect.
On a side note I also understand there are people with bank accounts magnitudes higher than me in this hobby so an āabsurdā amount of money is completely subjective. My position here only applies if you have a limited amount of money you can dedicate to this hobby
4 Likes
We are old souls in this hobby QWA so there are many people for which this topic is new.
What I meant with that statement you quoted and the thread as a whole is that we can break down what people are actually paying for when they buy a card. Some % goes to the card, some % goes to the true condition, some % goes to the label. Breaking it down this way, the label premium has nothing to do with the actual card youāre buying
When you buy something thatās 98% label premium, the āproductā is an abstract thing. To say you own something, I donāt mean that people are just buying 10s to show off. It could be just to saying to yourself that you own it or checked off a personal checkbox with no requirement to share it.
Though I understand how my words could be interpreted that way and I apologize for wording it poorly
9 Likes