??? a level that appears to be missing, and I’ll explain after.
Speculative collectibles are filled with instability, pushed by FoMO and rampant speculative moves leading to bubbles, uninformed collectors/investors, and quick swings in value and popularity.
Established collectibles have gone through enough crap that people in the hobby are not phased by more BS, and a large number of wannabe collectors have been burned when entering ignorantly. The hobby has developed a thick skin toward new collectors and events.
Mature collectibles have made it through the chaotic times. The market has learned to resist bubbles driven by whims of speculation, misinformation (influencers/word of mouth), and emotional impulse. Nearly everyone knows about the hobby and accepts it as part of society, being ignorant or not, to the true size of its collector-base. Movement in the hobby tends to be slow and insignificant in the short-term.
I actually asked Scott, this MMR, what PkMn might look like as an established collectible. Nice timing.
??? would be a time before “speculative”, when a collectible is naturally collected, but has a collector base satisfied almost entirely by retail production levels. Perhaps this would be called a “Fad collectible”.
People who want it can easily go to the store and buy it, but those buying it are collectors as much as anyone else. The secondary market is relatively weak, or only has significance for practical purposes, such as buying a specific card to play a game, or facilitating parts for something like a relatively common car. There is little speculation at this level though, with collectors simply enjoying the hobby and reveling in the more desirable parts, but not really working to acquire those things.
Perhaps this is unique to a children’s collectible, and maybe even to Pokemon because of how it was released - a franchise with market presence in so many different media forms.
I do wonder if the internet skews these phases a bit. For pokemon, either accelerating the entrance into the established phase, or elongating it’s stay in the speculative phase… Only time will tell, but with so many people easily manipulated by the internet and “social” media influences, and YES ‘manipulated’ is the right word, speculation could continue for a longer period than we’ve seen in other collectibles. Who knows? I don’t.
I think it’s easy to say that we are certainly still in the speculative phase. But maybe we’ll move through the established phase more quickly than 50 years because of the larger amount of burns and faster entry of ignorant collectors into the market, due to the internet hype and social media FoMO…
Would you say that organic collectively has to be almost exclusively bought to collect? For example, beanie babies, funkos, NFT chimpanzees, And NOT trading card game cards, nintendo amiibo, and classic cars. Something that has an alternative use?
Perhaps this is that missing level I outlined in my response earlier. Something that comes before speculative, but not always, as in the case of beanie babies, where they were a “fad” right away.
No… this is just what organic collectivity doesn’t mean. Organic collectivity arises from the collection of items (through time of existence) that were not meant to be collected in the first place (they were created for other purposes).
Examples are early sets of Magic The Gathering and Pokemon TCG, that were manufactured to play with (not to collect); vintage comics, that were manufactured to read; and early video games, that were created to play with.
Beanie babies are an excellent example of mass produced scarcity. Items that have not “won by their own rights” to be desired as collectibles. They were just created to be so.
In the UK it used to be all about collecting football stickers and completing the sticker books rather than football cards, especially in a World Cup year. I’m not sure if they still do it for the Premier League.
Football shirt collecting on the other hand is serious business!
Great topic, and interesting thought experiment. In my eyes Pokémon is approaching the mature phase. The hobby has grown so much over the years, but definitely still has room to grow to reach the maturity of other art and collectibles. Will be a fun and interesting ride for us.
I think collectors interest will change and stay the same at the same time. My 6 year old nephew loves Pokémon, and I suspect his generation’s interest will ebb and flow in the hobby depending on their age. As a result we will continue to see a mixing of generations from young kids to mature adults, collecting across a spectrum of products.
I think the next boom will unfortunately come via social media again. Our short attention spans, connection to social media, and algorithms create a pattern whereby there are booms and busts in attention via clicks/views etc. Something that is relatively unknown one day, can be widely known in a week. Likewise, the speed at which news and information hits us is occurring faster and faster, so presumable those swings in attention will occur more frequently. Given the genuine interest and growth in the hobby, I think this will be largely positive in the long run.
I agree that it is vital for collectibles to have cross-generational appeal. However, I would disagree that it is the key factor for rising prices. The key factor here is maintaining appeal among the old collectors who (at least very few) become so affluent over the decades that they outbid each other on the most desirable items, We see the same in comics: No 6-year old buys the CGC 9.8 comics (or will in the foreseeable decades) but old collectors.
So is it really necessary to have cross-generational appeal? yes, but only if we look at big time horizons.
Generational replacement is key for the hobby to survive over the decades. Said nothing about cross-generational appeal being the key factor for rising prices.
With no entry of new generations, all hobbies and franchises end up dying, and that’s a fact. Main goal of The Pokemon Company should be to maintain kids engaged… for ever!
That is what will make Pokemon TCG something that lasts for decades. Independently of fluctuation on prices.
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we are only theorizing.
