I realize those were overestimates now. Those estimates were based on the availability of 1st Edition Base Set sealed product vs ABU sealed product (for which we know had a combined print run of 45 million). 1st Edition Base Set sealed product appears much more plentiful than ABU sealed product (at least as far as what’s on the market). But I think I ignored a key factor --that 1st Edition Base Set was released 6 years after ABU. So perhaps the more apt comparison would be the availability of ABU sealed product in 2014 vs. the current availability of 1st Edition Base Set sealed product. ABU sealed product was way more available in 2014 than it is now, potentially as much as 1st Edition Base Set sealed product is now. Either way, it appears from the info that u/cosrob posted that the 1st Edition Base Set print run was probably of comparable or smaller size than Unlimited (which had a print run of 35 million cards and, like 1st Edition Base Set, sold out extremely quickly).
Based on the wording, it pretty clearly is referring to cards. But I suppose it’s possible it’s not. I think the biggest question is whether the 125 million cards sold to retail stores comprised the entirety of the first three Base Set print runs.
www.newsweek.com/its-pokemon-planet-169270
This source from 1999 claims that Wizards of the Coast sold 50 million cards by the end of February 1999, which presumably includes at least a couple of the print runs.
I might try to do more digging on this later.
1st Edition Base set having 100 million card print run means close to 300,000 1st ed base boxes were printed, which is a hilarious statement to make lol.
It’s closer to 250k, but I take your point. From what I’ve read/looked at so far, though, the print run does seem to be likely between 25 and 40 million, which could mean as much as the equivalent of 100,000 boxes worth of product having been printed. I would honestly be a bit surprised if the print run was below 30 million given the relative availability of 1st Edition Base Set and MTG’s Unlimited, which had a 35 million card print run and is much, much tougher to find sealed product of (card availability is tough to compare because Unlimited had nearly 3x the set size of Base Set, and there were 15 rather than 11 cards per pack, no foils, basic lands were more common than commons, etc.).
I don’t think perceived availability of sealed product between MTG and Pokemon is a reliable way to estimate print runs.
Reliable? Of course not. But if 1st Edition Base Set had a print run lower than ~25 million cards, the current availability of both sealed product and cards is astonishing. And I do think my perception of availability has solid empirical grounding. I don’t know of a single Unlimited booster box currently for sale, and I’m party to just about every channel where one would be posted. From ~13 years of collecting, I’ve seen (IIRC) 3 come up for sale, only one of which was after 2015. I’m much, much less enfranchised as a Pokemon collector than as a Magic collector (and so likely do not have access to certain sales channels), yet it’s apparent to me that someone with the right amount of money could very easily find and purchase an English 1st Edition Base Set booster box (there’s even one on eBay). And booster packs are even more common. And this is all despite the fact that the availability of 1st Edition Base Set boxes has precipitously declined in recent years. When I was purchasing Pokemon boxes back in ~2014, I recall there being several on eBay. I understand that my perception of availability does not correspond exactly with whatever the reality of the supply is, but how available English 1st Edition Base Set sealed product is does make think that the print run was no smaller than MTG’s Unlimited. And if it was, I’m clearly missing something.
www.kotaku.com.au/2011/11/when-pokmon-and-magic-cards-went-to-war/
“Yet few could have predicted just how big a hit they’d turn out to be: over 400,000 packs of Pokémon cards were sold in just the property’s first six weeks on sale in the US, which was 10x what Wizards had been expecting”
www.thestranger.com/seattle/pok233mon-possessed/Content?oid=2422
“Fact: Since January 9 of this year, Wizards has sold 2.5 million of the Pokémon two-player starter kits alone.”
That’s good info, we know 1st edition was exclusive to a certain area, and was sold out very quickly as well. 400k packs is ~11k boxes, lets say 1st ed base sold out within a week, that means less than 2k boxes were ever available.
I’m a little skeptical on the figure of 2k.
2000 boxes x 36 packs = 72000
72000 packs / 3 (1 holo per 3) = 24000 holo cards
24000 / 15 different holos = 1600 holos per card
Seems a little low tbh.
Yeah I done the math and agree that does sound low, but that’s what we’re working with at the moment!
Also the pokemon bubble lol
I have heard of rumors of a 2nd print run for 1st ed base as well which can explain a couple things.
Either way, 1st Edition Base Set (according to all the numbers cited) is definitely more scarce than I previously thought. Interesting. I really do wonder why 1st Edition Base Set sealed product appears to only be marginally less available (if at all) than the sealed product of many EX-era sets. It’s less even an oddity of 1st Edition Base Set than it is with EX-era sealed product. The availability is just so, so low now. It was easy find boxes of any EX-Series set just 5-6 years ago (for affordable prices, too). Now it’s like boxes are nearly extinct of some of these sets (obviously overstating it, but it is legitimately tougher to find sealed boxes of some EX sets than a sealed 1st Edition Base Set box). I just don’t understand how it’s possible…
It was articles like this in once reputable publications like the New York Times that put me and Eddie Brennesholtz into overdrive. We knew better but also knew how bad publicity could hurt our efforts.
We beat those doomsayer sonsofbitches;)
Go on Instagram and you´ll find dozens of these EX boxes within minutes, there´s people who have multiple TRR, Deoxys, Dragon whatever. Same people probably have never even touched a first ed base.
There’s no question that there are more boxes out there of any given EX set than 1st edition base. What is odd is the lack of marketplace presence. Basically every WotC set, in both Unlimited and 1st Edition, have been and continue to be (or at least up until recently) very available. It just is confusing to me why so few EX boxes hit the market. Perhaps it’s because they sell so quickly once they do? I sold my EX Ruby box this past fall within 15 minutes of listing it on eBay, likely because no other ones were available elsewhere online.
I don’t really use Instagram, so I didn’t realize that. Taking a cursory look, it doesn’t look like people are selling them, but more just using them as props to display wealth and status. Kind of bizarre and unfortunate. It’s clear that there’s no set market value for an expansion like EX Dragon at this point. I’m sure if one put out of a $5k+ offer, it could be acquired. But the value is so much more nebulous than anything WotC. The dry supply and lack of recent sales data is still just weird to me.
It´s a combination of scarcity and demand. A lot of the people holding these boxes have no intention of selling, as they are collectors. There is also a more limited buyer pool compared to WOTC. EX boxes sell regardless, but not that often publicly. I won´t name names but there is certain rafflers on instagram that raffle ex boxes very regularly.