Fair enough. I think it’s wise to evaluate risk but for the purposes of this discussion it’s tangential to the main topic.
But there are situations where lower grades are just undervalued relative to the PSA 10. When I bought my PSA 9 1st ed zard back in August, I paid just under 3k. A few months later, they were going for over $6k with relatively no growth in the PSA 10s. I wasn’t paying close attention to the lower grades, but I think you saw a similar pattern to 9s. You can say the charizard is a weird exception or that 10s would be the correct choice in the long term, but for that period of time speculating on lower grades would have been the optimal action.
It doesn’t matter how many times you have failed, you only have to be right once. - Mark Cuban
Of course you can find individual examples, but again we’re talking about grades in general. If you can find a good deal you’ll find more growth vs something your buying into at market, which would be the best way to go.
I’m the one guy who says doesn’t force the stupid people to be quiet. I want to know who the morons are. -Mark Cuban
“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take” -Wayne Gretsky
-Michael Scott
Clearly we were doing Cuban quotes…
Edit for Cuban quote:
‘Follow your passion’ is easily the worst advice you could ever give or get, - Mark Cuban
I think PSA 9’s have the best growth potential. Some potential can be unlocked simply be regrading to a BGS 9.5 or even reviewing to a PSA 10. I’ve always kept the strongest 9’s I can find and have never been a big fan of 10’s value wise.
“Sweat equity is the most valuable equity there is. Know your business and industry better than anyone else in the world. Love what you do or don’t do it.” -Mark Cuban
This.
The OP did state they were looking for Base through Destiny, so I’d advise them to go for 9s. Most cards are still sub $50 and as you pointed out there’s just not much price difference between a 7, 8, 9.
There are very few cards I expect to see much growth on PSA 5-7, except the higher end PSA 10 multi thousand dollar cards(1st Edition Shinings, 1st Ed Base, maybe Shadowless…?)
I don’t see average WOTC holos in low grade ever earn much more than $20. There’s gazillions out there.
“Hey everyone, this is S M Pratte” - Scott Pratte
PSA 7-8 for 1st edition base set, psa 9 for the rest up to Skyridge. I’m not familiar with Nintendo era prices.
i think 7 and up has a good potential growth at least within base set, i also think charizard will have decent growth across all grades espeacially 1st ed and shadowless as the 10s i think have so much potential to grow so far it can only casue the other grades to shift and being so damn popular people will pay for psa 1s at a decent price more than any other set card. you have seen this happen already the psa 10 zard breaking records and all other grades shifting in price quite dramatically because the demand is so big, just to own that card in any condtion will probally see decent growth in the future. Im thinking 10 years down the line more people will have deeper pockets zards are already going for crazy prices when a big chunk of the market have only really started careers, wait 10 years and see everyone being promoted and being more successful in there careers as long as the market is still very strong i can imagine prices will still be crazy on reflection to the markets earning capital just like prices are crazy to most at this point in there life in terms of what people can afford
Interesting question, so I parsed some data thanks to @pierce 's pokemonprice.com:
Here’s a look at price increases (and decreases) comparing sales from 9 months or later ago (and >6 months if there are none older than 9 months) to sales within the previous 3 months for base set 1st edition holos:
Disclaimer: Obviously, you should place less trust in results based on smaller data sets. Validity of data depends on the accuracy of Pierce’s website. 1st Edition Machamp results should be disregarded altogether due to PSA’s confusing categorization.
`Alakazam 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 71% increase (10 data points, 5 old 5 new)
Blastoise 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 68% increase (11 data points, 7 old 4 new)
Chansey 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 98% increase (11 data points, 4 old 7 new)
Charizard 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 70% increase (22 data points, 15 old 7 new)
Clefairy 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 90% increase (9 data points, 5 old 4 new)
Gyarados 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 128% increase (7 data points, 3 old 4 new)
Hitmonchan 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 62% increase (6 data points, 4 old 2 new)
Machamp 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 145% increase (24 data points, 15 old 9 new)
Magneton 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 92% increase (5 data points, 2 old 3 new)
Mewtwo 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 52% increase (6 data points, 2 old 4 new)
Nidoking 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 134% increase (7 data points, 2 old 5 new)
Ninetales 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 43% increase (5 data points, 2 old 3 new)
Poliwrath 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 103% increase (6 data points, 4 old 2 new)
Raichu 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 75% increase (11 data points, 4 old 7 new)
Venusaur 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 58% increase (6 data points, 2 old 4 new)
Zapdos 1st Edition Holo (PSA 7): 104% increase (5 data points, 3 old 2 new)
PSA 7 Average Change: 87% increase
Alakazam 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 68% increase (9 data points, 7 old 2 new)
Blastoise 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 53% increase (36 data points, 19 old 17 new)
Chansey 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 111% increase (15 data points, 10 old 5 new)
Charizard 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 130% increase (32 data points, 20 old 12 new)
Clefairy 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 76% increase (23 data points, 12 old 11 new)
Gyarados 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 74% increase (18 data points, 8 old 10 new)
Hitmonchan 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 79% increase (13 data points, 9 old 4 new)
Machamp 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 58% increase (49 data points, 30 old 19 new)
Magneton 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 67% increase (25 data points, 15 old 10 new)
Mewtwo 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 71% increase (12 data points, 8 old 4 new)
Nidoking 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 39% increase (16 data points, 9 old 7 new)
Ninetales 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 70% increase (17 data points, 14 old 3 new)
Poliwrath 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 63% increase (11 data points, 8 old 3 new)
Raichu 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 83% increase (15 data points, 7 old 8 new)
Venusaur 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 41% increase (13 data points, 7 old 6 new)
Zapdos 1st Edition Holo (PSA 8): 89% increase (14 data points, 8 old 6 new)
PSA 8 Average Change: 73% increase
Alakazam 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 49% increase (23 data points, 14 old 9 new)
Blastoise 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 72% increase (26 data points, 16 old 10 new)
Chansey 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 87% increase (19 data points, 11 old 8 new)
Charizard 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 76% increase (48 data points, 31 old 17 new)
Clefairy 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 79% increase (25 data points, 16 old 9 new)
Gyarados 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 52% increase (24 data points, 14 old 10 new)
Hitmonchan 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 59% increase (19 data points, 9 old 10 new)
Machamp 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 77% increase (114 data points, 56 old 58 new)
Magneton 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 57% increase (27 data points, 17 old 10 new)
Mewtwo 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 62% increase (14 data points, 5 old 9 new)
Nidoking 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 39% increase (18 data points, 11 old 7 new)
Ninetales 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 43% increase (17 data points, 12 old 5 new)
Poliwrath 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 44% increase (29 data points, 13 old 16 new)
Raichu 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 99% increase (29 data points, 21 old 8 new)
Venusaur 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 69% increase (32 data points, 21 old 11 new)
Zapdos 1st Edition Holo (PSA 9): 96% increase (24 data points, 17 old 7 new)
PSA 9 Average Change: 66% increase
Alakazam 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 88% increase (7 data points, 6 old 1 new)
Blastoise 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 58% increase (13 data points, 8 old 5 new)
Chansey 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): Not enough sales information available
Charizard 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 32% increase (17 data points, 11 old 6 new)
Clefairy 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 49% increase (4 data points, 3 old 1 new)
Gyarados 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 37% increase (4 data points, 3 old 1 new)
Hitmonchan 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 37% decrease (3 data points, 2 old 1 new)
Machamp 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 72% decrease (17 data points, 12 old 5 new)
Magneton 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 4% decrease (5 data points, 3 old 2 new)
Mewtwo 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 23% increase (4 data points, 1 old 3 new)
Nidoking 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 28% increase (8 data points, 3 old 5 new)
Ninetales 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 3% decrease (3 data points, 1 old 2 new)
Poliwrath 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 20% decrease (6 data points, 4 old 2 new)
Raichu 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 83% increase (3 data points, 1 old 2 new)
Venusaur 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 10% increase (10 data points, 5 old 5 new)
Zapdos 1st Edition Holo (PSA 10): 40% increase (9 data points, 5 old 4 new)
PSA 10 Average Change: 21% increase
--------------------------------------------------------------------`
If you want to play with this on your own, I’ve attached the code that you can enter into your browser console. You would enter this code in the Set List page that you’re interested in (e.g., I entered the above on the Base Set page).
You have control over the following three parameters:
variantName
If a set has variants, this is where you can set that variant. If a set has no variants, set this to
variantName = '';
To find the specific data-variant string related to a set’s variant right click the name of a card in that variant
Click inspect, then look for the nearest ‘data-variant’ attribute above what’s selected. In this case, we can see it’s ‘Shadowless’
So we’d set the variable variantName to
variantName = 'Shadowless';
The next (technically, 2 parameters) parameter you can control is the starting and ending numbers of the cards you want to grab. For example, to grab the first 16 cards of 1st Edition Base, we have
var setListStartingIndex = 0; var setListEndingIndex = 16;
If you wanted to grab just cards 150 - 165, you’d do something like
var setListStartingIndex = 150; var setListEndingIndex = 165;
The last parameter you have control over is
gradesToCheck
Where you can set which grades you’re interested in having parsed.
If you choose to use this script, please be respectful and don’t overdo it. If your starting and ending indexes include 20 cards, that’s 20 separate requests that will hit Pierce’s servers. Obviously, there’s potential for abuse if you’re either careless or malicious. @pierce , if you’d prefer that I take down this script, let me know 
Here it is:
`var variantName = ‘1st Edition’; //if data-variant is not populated for a set, e.g., base set unlimited, leave variantName = ‘’;
var setListStartingIndex = 0;
var setListEndingIndex = 16;
var gradesToCheck = [‘7’, ‘8’, ‘9’, ‘10’];
var pricePromiseArray = [];
$(‘tr[data-variant="’ + variantName + ‘"]’).slice(setListStartingIndex,setListEndingIndex).each(function() {
pricePromiseArray.push(getPriceInformation($(this).find(‘a’).attr(‘href’), gradesToCheck));
});
Promise.all(pricePromiseArray).then(function(returnValues) {
for(var i = 0; i < gradesToCheck.length; i++) {
var gradeSum = 0;
var validMetrics = 0;
var summaryText = ‘’;
for(var j = 0; j < returnValues.length; j++) {
var returnValueArray = returnValues[j][i].split(’|’);
var returnValuePercent = returnValueArray[0];
var returnValueText = returnValueArray[1];
if(returnValuePercent !== ‘XXX’) {
gradeSum += parseInt(returnValuePercent, 10);
validMetrics++;
}
console.log(returnValueText);
}
var averagePercent = (validMetrics > 0) ? (gradeSum / validMetrics).toFixed(0) : undefined;
if(averagePercent) {
var summaryText = (averagePercent >= 0) ? averagePercent + ‘% increase’ : (-1 * averagePercent) + ‘% decrease’;
}
console.log(’--------------------------------------------------------------------’);
console.log(‘PSA ’ + gradesToCheck[i] + ’ Average Change: ’ + summaryText);
console.log(’--------------------------------------------------------------------’);
}
});
function getPriceInformation(url, gradesToCheck) {
return new Promise(function(resolve) {
$.get(url, function(res) {
var cardName = $(res).find(‘h3’).text();
var auctionsOlderThan9Months = {};
var auctionsOlderThan6Months = {};
var auctionsSoldWithinPast3Months = {};
var returnArray = {};
var datetime9MonthsAgo = addMonths(new Date(), -9);
var datetime6MonthsAgo = addMonths(new Date(), -6);
var datetime3MonthsAgo = addMonths(new Date(), -3);
for(var i = 0; i < gradesToCheck.length; i++) {
auctionsOlderThan9Months[gradesToCheck[i]] = [];
auctionsOlderThan6Months[gradesToCheck[i]] = [];
auctionsSoldWithinPast3Months[gradesToCheck[i]] = [];
}
$(res).find('tbody > tr').each(function() {
var grade = $(this).find('td').eq(1).text().trim();
if(gradesToCheck.indexOf(grade) > -1) {
var datetimeAuctionEnded = new Date($(this).find('td').eq(0).text().trim());
if(datetimeAuctionEnded < datetime9MonthsAgo) {
auctionsOlderThan9Months[grade].push(parseFloat($(this).find('td').eq(2).text().substr(1).replace(/,/g, '')));
} else if(datetimeAuctionEnded < datetime6MonthsAgo) {
auctionsOlderThan6Months[grade].push(parseFloat($(this).find('td').eq(2).text().substr(1).replace(/,/g, '')));
} else if(datetimeAuctionEnded >= datetime3MonthsAgo) {
auctionsSoldWithinPast3Months[grade].push(parseFloat($(this).find('td').eq(2).text().substr(1).replace(/,/g, '')));
}
}
});
for(var i = 0; i < gradesToCheck.length; i++) {
var olderThan9MonthsAverage = arrayAverage(auctionsOlderThan9Months[gradesToCheck[i]]);
var olderThan6MonthsAverage = arrayAverage(auctionsOlderThan6Months[gradesToCheck[i]]);
var withinPast3MonthsAverage = arrayAverage(auctionsSoldWithinPast3Months[gradesToCheck[i]]);
var comparisonAverage = (olderThan9MonthsAverage) ? olderThan9MonthsAverage : olderThan6MonthsAverage;
var comparisonDataPoints = (olderThan9MonthsAverage) ? auctionsOlderThan9Months[gradesToCheck[i]].length : auctionsOlderThan6Months[gradesToCheck[i]].length;
if(withinPast3MonthsAverage && comparisonDataPoints > 0) {
var numDataPoints = comparisonDataPoints + auctionsSoldWithinPast3Months[gradesToCheck[i]].length;
var percentIncrease = (((withinPast3MonthsAverage - comparisonAverage) / comparisonAverage) * 100).toFixed(0);
if(percentIncrease > 0) {
returnArray[i] = percentIncrease + '|' + cardName + ' (PSA ' + gradesToCheck[i] + '): ' + percentIncrease + '% increase (' + numDataPoints +' data points, ' + comparisonDataPoints + ' old ' + auctionsSoldWithinPast3Months[gradesToCheck[i]].length + ' new)';
} else {
returnArray[i] = percentIncrease + '|' + cardName + ' (PSA ' + gradesToCheck[i] + '): ' + (-1 * percentIncrease) + '% decrease (' + numDataPoints +' data points, ' + comparisonDataPoints + ' old ' + auctionsSoldWithinPast3Months[gradesToCheck[i]].length + ' new)';
}
} else {
returnArray[i] = 'XXX|' + cardName + ' (PSA ' + gradesToCheck[i] + '): Not enough sales information available';
}
}
resolve(returnArray);
});
});
}
function addMonths(date, months) {
date.setMonth(date.getMonth() + months);
return date;
}
function arrayAverage(arr) {
var sum = 0;
for(var i = 0; i < arr.length; i++) {
sum += arr[i];
}
return (arr.length === 0) ? undefined : ( sum / arr.length ).toFixed(2);
}`
@hypernova cool information That’s fine you can keep the script up mate, I made the site so we could do better analysis on price data after all so I’m glad it’s getting used like this. If you have any ideas on data you’d like me to build into the analysis section feel free to PM me.
Great work @hypernova ! Even comes with appropriate documentation on how to use it.
I wonder what @cullers and Mark Cuban think of this data
I don’t think you can predict the market with past data. It also makes sense that that’s what you would see. last year the 10 and 9 grades were selling at very high for 1st ed base. Now they aren’t as high in price, so naturally if you add them to your data you’re going to have lower numbers. In fact if I was going to use that data and make a decision the better piece of information would be trends over time. Whichever one had a bigger dip would be my assumption to make the biggest jump back. Overall I stand by my first statement in this post, you can’t predict trends with past data.
If you don’t follow the stock market, you’re missing some amazing drama. -Mark Cuban
Correct me if I’m wrong, but your initial point was that you just can’t see 9s, 8s, 7s, etc growing faster than 10s since the price of lower grades is intrinsically tied with the price of the higher grades? At the very least, that’s the position I’ve taken a stance against in this thread. I certainly think there are periods of time where lower grades have much more room for growth than 10s and hypernova has provided quantifiable evidence of this. I still agree 10s are the safest choice investment-wise (at least in the long term) but clearly there are situations where sub-10 grades are the better choice for a return. I would never try to predict with full confidence which cards/grades this applies to, but I think there are indicators you can look to that suggest a card at a certain grade is undervalued.
Other than that, I don’t think I really disagree with much you’ve said here. I think your comment about getting a good price on a card is one of the most important investment factors is particularly pertinent and true, which I think is especially when it comes to short-term investment (read: flipping). I don’t have any real background in economics so anything I say on this topic is mostly from intuition very well could be wrong. It’s nice to hear a perspective from someone with clearly a stronger background and that has had obvious success, at least in the ‘Pokemon market’.
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” -Mark Cuban
Fair enough, yes if you’re only position is to prove than in some cases lower grades will outperform higher grades you’ll win. You could easily cherry pick data to prove that.
However, I that’s not my position, my position is based upon the question asked. What grades will increase the most in the current market. last year, I probably would have said the same as I am now, and clearly I would have been wrong. The question would then be why. My best guess is last year the 7/8 grades had a gap in the price vs the 9/10 grades. Where the 9/10s were soaring, and the 7/8s were playing catch up. I haven’t taken the time to look at the current market to see if there’s any obvious gaps, but I don’t suspect there’s many between general grades.
In the end, if I had $10,000 and I can only invest in in Pokemon, I don’t get to choose the cards but only the grades, and my goal is to make the most money, there’s zero chance I’m choosing anything but 10s, short term or long. Could I be wrong in my choice, absolutly. I’m just not going to bet against the odds and guess that a bunch of people are going to be seeking out the less desirable more available grades.
“I can’t tell you how many times people have tried to scam me, and, unfortunately, they have pulled it off a few times. But I have learned that usually the easier someone says something will be, the more likely my scam alert goes off. Nothing is ever guaranteed. The people who are full of shit tend to try and make you think they have a sure thing. When you hear that, run away.” – Mark Cuban