With w t h has been going on just in the past 2 weeks, what’s going to happen with PSA subs and declared value moving forward!!! We know they are going to be increasing prices in the New Year justifiably so, but I’m very concerned with this? Certain raw cards went from 500$ to 2500$ in a week and might end up going to 5,000$ before we know it… + all the shills and potential fake and unpaid / market manipulated sold listings on public marketplaces?!
Heck, TT and TCG Player who notoriously have been more cautious or just “slower” at adjusting pricing on singles before several established and confirmed transactions help identify the real bid prices by the demand have been adjusting WOTC prices by the hour!
Title asks the question. With how crazy and by crazy we’re talking 10-50x on certain things that are showing up as “sold” on eBay and inducing everyone and their mother to then make sell posts off eBay or on commanding a higher price, what will the new declared value be?
If a raw 1st edition common card was going for 5-50$ for the longest time dependant on condition, and is now going for 500-1000$? Is this the NEW declared value?
If a PSA 10 Charizard unlimited was a 2-3k card and by your next submission becomes a 50k card because of recent market movement, is this the new declared value? And what if the market collapses and you ended up paying 1000$s to have something graded that was artificially pumped up in price?
Isn’t there going to be a long term effect down the line that will likely bite everyone in the ass with all these new “record” prices on both raw and graded cards that seem to be breaking by the hour?!
OP is concerned about subbing something like a base zard that, at the time of submitting was worth $200 raw and maybe $1k graded but by the time PSA finally grades it, is now $10k graded. He’s thinking that due to the dramatic price increase, PSA will upcharge based on the current value and not the value that it was when it was originally submitted. I guess that’s a pretty decent concern
I thought about this too and I think it should only be a concern if the prices peak, we are upcharged, then we get our cards back and the prices retrace significantly. That would suck.
Fortunately, the up charge happens days before our cards are shipped back so the chances are low that the retrace will happen right when cards are being shipped back, but it is possible.
Yes, but also with this new “gold rush” of people chasing to submit all their bulk or cards they felt were meh less desirable or condition wasn’t great. Will everyone be forced to use all this recent sales data that we don’t know to be either
(1) legitimate and paid for in the first place
(2) even if it seems people are paying these prices, but the most educated and unbiased/transparent opinion and valuation points towards the fact this *is not* reflective of a healthy current market valuation… we still need to go by this?
^^ this paints a very scary picture and looks like it’s a potential NON calculated risk people are taking long term.
The tiers are (without special deals or middle man deals etc. )
10$ —> 199$ max declared value
20$ —> 499$ max declared value
50$ —> 999$ max declared value
75$ —> 2,499$ max declared value
200$ —> 4,999$ max declared value
500$ —> 9,999$ max declared value
*if we compare to the eBay Garbage thread and the crap that’s actually starting to appear sold that just isn’t making sense, my pack fresh 5$ raw single that was worth 200$ in a 10, or 50$ in a 9 is now 1000$ in a 9 and 3000$ in a 10? So I’m going to pay 75$ for a card that sold for 30-50$ in a 9 for the longest time, but now certain market movements and market manipulators are making it look like my card will be worth 1000$+🤔 I’d feel like a THIEF if I suckered anyone into paying that for a card that falls into this context, so NO, it wouldn’t be a “pleasant” surprise to be bumped to that tier for something as ridiculous as this. And this will be applicable to 100s of cards that have no business falling into the express and beyond categories!!*
Pokemon just won the World Cup. People are celebrating and wanna take part in the celebration and therefore buy cards because it makes them feel part of the event and their childhood/appreciate the art work, and unfortunately the only practical answer unless you are able to get a direct line with PSA is to send your stuff to express to get it back face the upcharge and sell at a record price. If a retrace happens its good for this but that’s also an uncertainty.
Does Beckett charge based on declared value as well? Because if not as harshly it may be a better option.
You are right and this is why I’m saying this because as we speak there are 10s of thousands of pack fresh-DMG condition cards being submitted express and higher where they would have never thought to send those in let alone pay that much for them to be graded… at some point when the demand dries up at certain price points, it just won’t justify sending in certain cards to get graded anymore IF the actual demand price is much lower than what peaked at some point.
Long term, if this keeps up, it will have successfully accomplished ruining certain parts of the collecting spirit entirely. So what the new Vivid Voltage Zard is going to come out and the classic rush to have it graded will happen and then the raw card will be at 2500$? If the Shiny V STARTED at 500$, we can only assume if everything has 5-50x in just the last few weeks, it’s fair to assume these new Vmax will be 2500$ raw right? And then the first record setting 10s to be 10k+ so we will need to be paying for the 10k+ tier 750$ to grade what will end up being an extremely high pop report card that will not be worth 10k+ at least not for a LONG time?
In economics they call this what I think positive/negative externalities? Like the consequences on health and the environment for a town or city that ends up being a manufacturing hub for X product or industry. Sure it creates 1000s of jobs BUT ___ bla-bla-bla.
Not only are people now rushing to buy raw cards for ridiculous prices because of what seems to be record prices being sold for them graded, but you will be overpaying to acquire the single, overpay to have it graded, for it to grade poorly and not be so attractive to anyone down the line at those prices?
Not everyone is looking to just capitalize on the momentum and get out as quickly as you got in and keep repeating this process. I’m going to end up paying 1000$ for a card I paid at market value 12 months ago 10$ but that gets shilled to 10,000$? (I’m exaggerating but this is how things are looking for now) but that in reality isn’t a card anyone who isn’t being conned into believing the rarity would pay more or value said card at 500$? Lmao good joke.
You’re dreaming if you don’t believe demand at certain prices will dry up for certain cards and grades. This isn’t the classic bubble fear talk and whatever, we’ve moved entirely past bubble territory and into 100% manipulated market territory. The only thing is the collectibles and art trade space isn’t regulated the same way other markets are. In fact, surprising to the many in the art trade, as of the last 12 months there’s been genuine concern and serious discussions on market manipulation, money laundering and tax shielding at an international government / watchdog level.
I’m sorry but an unlimited PSA 10 Charizard is not worth 50k. Not to mention, the individuals who are HEAVILY invested at the higher end of the hobby who likely “overlooked” certain areas of the hobby will be the first, if they haven’t already, that just because your X Prize pieced card was worth Y when unlimited base Zard was worth whatever, you can’t assume you will be able to multiply this return to determine the new value of your card since the demand won’t exist there.
But the collector who could NEVER afford the 1st edition grailed Zard, spent the last few years picking up the unlimited 10 for a few grand here and there and ended up with a collection of 20-30 of them that let’s say end up being worth 100k! Just because people are being conned into thinking and investing into certain markets.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a fu$king boiler room preparing to start soliciting people to not miss the boat on the new PokeMania gold rush and move money out of secured and stable investment vehicles to buy into these new syndicated pseudo style pooled collectible funds that the conmen are brewing.
The same people who pumped silver this way in 2004-06 and scammed hundreds of millions from poor old people are the same people who pumped unsecured asset backed loans and wiped people out of their retirement in 08-10 who are the same people who pumped crypto 2016-18 as well as their own ICOs and binary option trading schemes. People need to take a serious look at who the CURRENT individuals influencing and manipulating the market are and look deep into their backgrounds. It’s not hard, trust me.
But at the end of the day, everyone is happy now and taking advantage of the current situation, but don’t be fooled, there will come a time where even they will be priced out or completely dried up or actually need to face the expensive consequences of it all (like my PSA up charge/declared value concern).
There’s a reason regulated markets have circuit breakers.
Because your card is actually not worth 1000$ and you would know this deep down because you know you would never nor anyone you know pay that price, but because of the current volatility that exists and the manipulation in the market, on paper your card is worth 1000$ so we’re charging you 75$. But you don’t know a single person willing to pay you more than 100$ for it.
Psa already has a history of missing cards that shouldve been upcharged. For a very long time with pokemon. I can’t imagine they place an upcharge fee so carelessly. That seems like an extreme reach that can be fought sincerely with linking the price of raws.
No one is shilling $50 cards to that extent when you can shill $5,000 cards
Company financials were doing horrible, during this lockdown stock has soared accordingly which is fair, announcement for increased rates (fair as well, to what extent we will have to wait and see, but yes inflation is a serious thing as I mentioned somewhere else when the USA has printed 25% of ALL their currency in circulation in 2020 alone… you can only imagine the consequences. My tell tale sign of the inflation rate in US and Canada is the price of a Big Mac trio. So it will be interesting to see where their new prices will be in 2021… anyways there are definite negative externalities and byproducts that will surface eventually.
When your Japanese promos in 10 that are newly released end up costing you 1000$+ to buy them upon release compared to the 50-100$ you’re used to you will see how affected many many many people are going to be. And yes I’m giving a broad example, but I’ve identified at least a handful of cards where current raw price pack fresh vs. Sales of 9s and 10s are 150x and 500x the raw price… with zero concern for how many of them are just pack fresh sitting in boxes because demand wasn’t there or the card isn’t necessarily too appealing to the casual collector… but the shilling and manipulation in anticipation of the “soon to come pump” is blatantly obvious OR just the full out scamming by using buzzwords and fomo inducing unsophisticated and completely irrational individuals into overspending which yes is their fault.
But how would you feel if your card now equals it’s raw price + your new grading fee up charges and tiers and NEVER appreciated. You can never resell that card for more than your total cost basis. Because the bid and the ask will meet there eventually… just some food for thought and some genuine concern.
I agree with what you’re saying pokebowl, but in the end, it’s all to one’s own decision based on the current status of the masses and their perceptions of what they’re participating in. The main focus of frustration I would feel is shared among most collectors right now is the influx of naive spenders in the hobby as of late. It is a buying hibernation for a lot of long time collectors that are feeling out the market and it’s progression into the 25yr anniversary. This is a short term issue for sure, so I am choosing to wait out a big PSA submission until things flatten out a little. Whether it be at it’s current high altitude or a lower retraced one. Doesn’t really change much for long term collectors.
If the market deems it to be a 400 dollar card then yea, it’s going for 400.
I haven’t seen prices come down since I’ve started collecting last year, they have only gone up, so the idea of a bubble bursting isn’t going to happen.
It has nothing to do with bubble, I wasn’t going there. I’m foreshadowing certain indirect causalities of what is going on long term. It’s actually my job to apply predictive and behavioural analysis and I’ve always been that guy that has been and been able to see multiple steps ahead as they say. Wether we are in a bubble or not or prices will drop or not is irrelevant. Here’s a few examples:
(1) card savers just announced a restock and pre orders. The price increase % does NOT reflect *actual* inflation + the new costs of goods on their part from a manufacturing and operating standpoint. The stupidly increased demand over the last few months that dried up whatever wholesale supply was left in between their own personal orders from the manufacturer pushed the costs to the end user (businesses, consumers and hobbyists, etc. ) astronomically. The molds aren’t disappearing or breaking any time soon, these card savers can be produced in unimaginable quantities now that factories and transatlantic/pacific transport operations have resumed.
(2) here’s an example of a card I posted in the eBay garbage thread. A cracked ice Mewtwo from XY EVO (comes from Mewtwo theme deck which is still readily available by the case and restocked with the Raichu version as well for what 9.99$ in the States and 14.99$ hère in Canada?). Anyways, you can buy the PACK FRESH cracked ice Mewtwo holo for 5-10$. But in the last 90 days, there’s been a 9 sell like last week for about 1,000$ CAD and the same seller has relisted the 9, for the same price + a 10 popped up for almost 3k CAD. The pop report is tiny like 50 total graded, 8 10s and like 30+ 9s etc. I personally have a few cases of the display boxes. I’ve ripped through a few and sleeved that Mewtwo variant and put into a “to grade eventually” pile. Now if that 10 sells. And another few sales push the prices up just a bit more so my CAD numbers = USD numbers. I’m going to risk having to pay 100$ USD to grade this pack fresh card that is by no means rare (forget the pop report because that pop report could easily turn into 1000 graded in a week if people hopped onto it). Where I would have normally included in BULK and sold my 9s for 50$ and the 10s for 150$ ish let’s say? Meanwhile a Mewtwo collector would have gladly picked these up at the 10 price fine maybe 2-250$ cause of the crappy print run blabla but at 2500$+ he’s better off buying 25 theme decks @10$. Paying 50-75$ per sub + shipping blabla. So he’s in for 250$ + 75$ x 25 = 1875$ // 2,075$ all in. He gets back 10 9s and 10 10s you’re not going to sit here and tell me he just took 2085$, invested it into readily available retail modern, and converted it into 2,500$ x 10 = 25k and 1000$ x 10 = 10k so 35k for a 2085$ investment.
Get out of here. Hey ASSUMING that sale of the 9 is legit, then you better believe the price will drop if all of a sudden 1000 9s hit the market come on.
Now picture this with someone who’s been hoarding the team up cracked ice zard from theme deck or the Blastoise (I own a stupid amount of these theme decks FYI full disclosure and I knew at some point the holo variant for the big boys would be desired but shit like this will be horrible in the long run.
Like I mentioned in an earlier post, it’s all fun and games now and everyone is enjoying being able to dump items at stupid prices, but the market is HIGHLY INEFFICIENT right now and entirely broken this isn’t up for debate and everyone knows it. But what happens when the market starts becoming more efficient and stable again? Your distributor connections so many took the time to lowkey build up and bypass owning or running a brick and mortar and even an ecommerce. What happens when bigger boys come to play and price you out entirely out of your allocation lol? Or Pokemon TPCi gets fed up and blocks all distribution to anyone that isn’t sponsoring tournaments and owns a physical brick and mortar except for MJH and other distributors who deal directly with big box retail.
Or everyone thinking Japanese is going to rise but it’s moving at a slower pace. That tide is changing quickly. And moving forward every Pokémon Center promo starts costing you 250$ raw and the first 10s that start being graded start costing 5k instead of the 75-100$ that has been the standard for years now?
Or what happens at the next Worlds? When the new guy with the deepest pockets buys out every single awarded trophy card?
So the people who are saying stop thinking there’s a retrace stock thinking there’s a bubble lmao I must have seen this week 10,000 total pack fresh base unlimited and 1st edition cards put into card savers and own their way to PSA express between IG, FB and YT. By all means I hope the starters unlimited raw reach 1000$! I’ll be able to retire off BULK.