Pokemon Print Run Question

[KingPokemon]

@jonandek

Japanese no rarity base (i.e. first edition) set too. Look at the psa pop reports for that set.

That’s not the reason for the PSA discrepancy though. For 20 years, though we already acknowledged them, nobody cared about them. Then a couple years ago one very smart and relentless fellow marketed the crap out of them. He created the market and the buzz and I respect that. But…I never get requests for them and only own a bunch by accident.

[randox]

@KingPokemon

@jonandek

Japanese no rarity base (i.e. first edition) set too. Look at the psa pop reports for that set.

That’s not the reason for the PSA discrepancy though. For 20 years, though we already acknowledged them, nobody cared about them. Then a couple years ago one very smart and relentless fellow marketed the crap out of them. He created the market and the buzz and I respect that. But…I never get requests for them and only own a bunch by accident.

Pokémon syndicate?

[KingPokemon]

@randox, Yep, our boy Pokesyn.

[jkanly]

@KingPokemon

@jonandek

Japanese no rarity base (i.e. first edition) set too. Look at the psa pop reports for that set.

That’s not the reason for the PSA discrepancy though. For 20 years, though we already acknowledged them, nobody cared about them. Then a couple years ago one very smart and relentless fellow marketed the crap out of them. He created the market and the buzz and I respect that. But…I never get requests for them and only own a bunch by accident.

Don’t forget Glenn (Japanime) hyping them back in 2001 He helped.

[jonandek]

@KingPokemon

@jonandek

Japanese no rarity base (i.e. first edition) set too. Look at the psa pop reports for that set.

That’s not the reason for the PSA discrepancy though. For 20 years, though we already acknowledged them, nobody cared about them. Then a couple years ago one very smart and relentless fellow marketed the crap out of them. He created the market and the buzz and I respect that. But…I never get requests for them and only own a bunch by accident.

Thanks Gary. I have enjoyed collecting that set for its significance as the first printing of the original cards. In fact no rarity are the only japanese cards I collect. I’m surprised there’s not more organic demand for it among collectors. I can say that after several months it’s the only set I have not had the opportunity to complete in its entirety, and not for lack of trying. I’ve been aiming for PSA 9/10 condition where possible, but haven’t been able to find some of the cards in ANY reasonable condition. The holo and non-holo rares seem genuinely scarce in high grade.

[quuador]

I assume this thread is mostly about English print runs? Because if not, the unlimited edition E1, L1, WCP sets are all extremely short-printed and almost non-existent. In 5+ years of collecting, I’ve only seen about 10-15 different unlimited edition E1 cards (some like Pichu a couple of copies), all in some threads here on the forum; only two of the three starter Pokémon non-Holos for L1 (without those two I would have thought the unlimited edition L1 print run simply didn’t exist at all); and the amount of different unlimited edition WCP cards I’m not sure, although I’ve only seen the Battle Frontier trainer card once, which I’m glad to say is incoming for my collection; Seviper none (still looking for it to complete my Seviper collection, together with the Spanish Hidden Fates copy, last two I need); Pikachu four times (one in my possession, one in Tom’s, one in another fellow Pikachu collector’s collection, and one PSA-10 is currently on eBay).

Unlimited edition Japanese cards are in general rarer than the 1st edition ones, a few exceptions here and there. E2-E5 and L2-L3 are pretty hard to find as well, although they are more easily found than the earlier mentioned three sets.

Greetz,
Quuador

[pokecollectoramy]

@jonandek

Since EX TRR, Deoxys and Delta Species all have three gold stars and, according to the best data I could find, the same 1:72 pull rate for gold stars, the PSA pop report may be a decent approximation for relative scarcity. I’d like to include power keepers in this too since it has three gold stars but apparently the pull rate in that set is much higher so I’ve left it out. here’s the gold star data from PSA. this is for total submissions, it ignores the grade:

TRR:
Mudkip 245
Torchic 223
Treecko 236

Average pop for gold star: 235

Deoxys:
Latias 251
Latios 255
Rayquaza 348

Average pop for gold star (have to exclude our friend Ray for obvious reason): 253

Delta Species:
Groudon 275
Kyogre 282
Metagross 304

Average gold star pop: 287

That’s pretty rough math and it’s certainly flawed, but it does support that TRR is scarcer than Deoxys which is in turn scarcer than delta species. hard to compare to anything WOTC except maybe Dark Raichu 1st edition. the pull rates are not known but are estimated to at least be within 50% of the gold stars, higher or lower. 1395 1st edition dark raichus have been submitted to PSA. even within the margin of error, it would appear each of these three EX sets are far scarcer than team rocket 1st edition. wish there was a comparison to something later WOTC though as that was clearly a very heavily printed set. ah just thought of aquapolis. three crystal rares with a pull rate of 1:36. here’s the pop for those (divide by two to compare with EX series above):

Kingdra 387 (divided by two 194)
Lugia 548 (274)
Nidoking 441 (221)

This is skewed by the relative desirability of the cards, but the average crystal pop excluding lugia is 414, or 207 on an apples-to-apples basis with the EX series above. This would suggest aquapolis is scarcer than all three of the EX series. If skyridge is scarcer than aquapolis, that would likely give it the title for scarcest set but I don’t have the data to back up the skyridge assertion that’s just what everyone seems to state as fact. Of course none of this analysis is perfect. but it’s some of the only data we have. and I think the data for the cards I used is pretty good, even with the outliers of Lugia and Rayquaza in there. If someone has more accurate data for pull rates or a better methodology for accounting for Lugia and Rayquaza this could be refined further. would be great if there was a way to include power keepers but the estimated pull rates seem to be a wide range and to me don’t match with the pops in a way that makes those pull rates seem correct.

So using extremely simple basic math, if average is 235 for the trr GS pops, x3 = 705 x 72 = 50,760. Is it possible that there was under 100,000 boxes for the run? That would seem extremely small. I am expecting there could be 700 gold stars out there ungraded (they aren’t that hard to find on eBay) and certainly still sealed boxes (which seems much more scarce) but maybe not? Now that prices have increased perhaps we will see more come on to the market

[jonandek]

@pokecollectoramy

@jonandek

So using extremely simple basic math, if average is 235 for the trr GS pops, x3 = 705 x 72 = 50,760. Is it possible that there was under 100,000 boxes for the run? That would seem extremely small. I am expecting there could be 700 gold stars out there ungraded (they aren’t that hard to find on eBay) and certainly still sealed boxes (which seems much more scarce) but maybe not? Now that prices have increased perhaps we will see more come on to the market

the ungraded pop is definitely an unknown. but I think 1000 gold stars (PER gold star) is a decent estimate. take rayquaza as an example because more of the copies have presumably been graded than any other gold star. of the 349 (graded pop moved by one since last night!), 277 of them are PSA 7,8,9,10. That means 79% are in the upper part of the range. If you believe that in reality, the distribution of grades should look more like a bell curve with the fat part in the middle (PSA 4, 5, 6) range, and the “tails” are 25% each. then you can take 277/.25 which yields 1108 gold stars. because pokemon cards are more durable, even when people play with them, then maybe the fat part of the bell curve is more in the 5,6,7 range or even the 6,7,8 range. those would suggest 984 and 728 copies, respectively. While it’s not precise, a few interesting conclusions can be drawn. First, it’s not unreasonable to think that certain gold stars may have rarity in line, or probably even less, than Alpha rare cards from magic the gathering (print run of 1100). That’s one way to put their rarity in perspective. Second, a reasonable guess as to print runs of some of these EX series sets (this one would be for deoxys) could be:

1108x3x72: 239,000
984x3x72: 212,000
728x3x72: 157,000

It’s a wide range and again based on a lot of assumptions. But what I like about this type of analysis is that it gives a “directional” sense. You can rule some things out as being very unlikely even with a wide margin of error on the above math. one thing we didn’t account for doing the math with Ray is that while more have been submitted than any other card, there are probably a lot of re-submissions. taking that into account would only bring the numbers down further. but to me, the balancing factor to that is that there are probably still some higher grade, ungraded ray copies that have not been submitted. so maybe the two of those factors balance each other out. welcome others thoughts.

[randox]

@jonandek

@pokecollectoramy

So using extremely simple basic math, if average is 235 for the trr GS pops, x3 = 705 x 72 = 50,760. Is it possible that there was under 100,000 boxes for the run? That would seem extremely small. I am expecting there could be 700 gold stars out there ungraded (they aren’t that hard to find on eBay) and certainly still sealed boxes (which seems much more scarce) but maybe not? Now that prices have increased perhaps we will see more come on to the market

the ungraded pop is definitely an unknown. but I think 1000 gold stars (PER gold star) is a decent estimate. take rayquaza as an example because more of the copies have presumably been graded than any other gold star. of the 349 (graded pop moved by one since last night!), 277 of them are PSA 7,8,9,10. That means 79% are in the upper part of the range. If you believe that in reality, the distribution of grades should look more like a bell curve with the fat part in the middle (PSA 4, 5, 6) range, and the “tails” are 25% each. then you can take 277/.25 which yields 1108 gold stars. because pokemon cards are more durable, even when people play with them, then maybe the fat part of the bell curve is more in the 5,6,7 range or even the 6,7,8 range. those would suggest 984 and 728 copies, respectively. While it’s not precise, a few interesting conclusions can be drawn. First, it’s not unreasonable to think that certain gold stars may have rarity in line, or probably even less, than Alpha rare cards from magic the gathering (print run of 1100). That’s one way to put their rarity in perspective. Second, a reasonable guess as to print runs of some of these EX series sets (this one would be for deoxys) could be:

1108x3x72: 239,000
984x3x72: 212,000
728x3x72: 157,000

It’s a wide range and again based on a lot of assumptions. But what I like about this type of analysis is that it gives a “directional” sense. You can rule some things out as being very unlikely even with a wide margin of error on the above math. one thing we didn’t account for doing the math with Ray is that while more have been submitted than any other card, there are probably a lot of re-submissions. taking that into account would only bring the numbers down further. but to me, the balancing factor to that is that there are probably still some higher grade, ungraded ray copies that have not been submitted. so maybe the two of those factors balance each other out. welcome others thoughts.

Great analysis again! Are you thinking about entering the ex era yourself Jonandek? They are amazing cards imo with a lot of unique attributes!

[jonandek]

thanks. I am definitely into the EX era. I have put together a PSA graded 9/10 set of gold stars that I am slowly moving all to 10s. At least that’s the plan. I find the total number of EX sets to be a bit overwhelming though. I would love to eventually have binder sets of all of the reverse holos and EX cards from the EX series. But I have a very OCD style of collecting and am super picky about binder condition (“pack fresh” PSA 9 average feel). So it would probably take me years even if all I did every day was just buy and organize pokemon cards. It’s a lot of scouring ebay, cataloguing, PSA cracking, package opening, sleeving, bindering etc. makes me tired just thinking about it for all of those sets. So I am focusing on just a few sets for now. Only about 5-6 of the sets, then I plan to slowly move through them.

[nostalgiaoldbird]

@jonandek

Since EX TRR, Deoxys and Delta Species all have three gold stars and, according to the best data I could find, the same 1:72 pull rate for gold stars, the PSA pop report may be a decent approximation for relative scarcity. I’d like to include power keepers in this too since it has three gold stars but apparently the pull rate in that set is much higher so I’ve left it out. here’s the gold star data from PSA. this is for total submissions, it ignores the grade:

TRR:
Mudkip 245
Torchic 223
Treecko 236

Average pop for gold star: 235

Deoxys:
Latias 251
Latios 255
Rayquaza 348

Average pop for gold star (have to exclude our friend Ray for obvious reason): 253

Delta Species:
Groudon 275
Kyogre 282
Metagross 304

Average gold star pop: 287

That’s pretty rough math and it’s certainly flawed, but it does support that TRR is scarcer than Deoxys which is in turn scarcer than delta species. hard to compare to anything WOTC except maybe Dark Raichu 1st edition. the pull rates are not known but are estimated to at least be within 50% of the gold stars, higher or lower. 1395 1st edition dark raichus have been submitted to PSA. even within the margin of error, it would appear each of these three EX sets are far scarcer than team rocket 1st edition. wish there was a comparison to something later WOTC though as that was clearly a very heavily printed set. ah just thought of aquapolis. three crystal rares with a pull rate of 1:36. here’s the pop for those (divide by two to compare with EX series above):

Kingdra 387 (divided by two 194)
Lugia 548 (274)
Nidoking 441 (221)

This is skewed by the relative desirability of the cards, but the average crystal pop excluding lugia is 414, or 207 on an apples-to-apples basis with the EX series above. This would suggest aquapolis is scarcer than all three of the EX series. If skyridge is scarcer than aquapolis, that would likely give it the title for scarcest set but I don’t have the data to back up the skyridge assertion that’s just what everyone seems to state as fact. Of course none of this analysis is perfect. but it’s some of the only data we have. and I think the data for the cards I used is pretty good, even with the outliers of Lugia and Rayquaza in there. If someone has more accurate data for pull rates or a better methodology for accounting for Lugia and Rayquaza this could be refined further. would be great if there was a way to include power keepers but the estimated pull rates seem to be a wide range and to me don’t match with the pops in a way that makes those pull rates seem correct.

One of the most convincing methodology! One quick question, assuming the gold star pull rate is 1 out of 2 boxes / 72 packs, then it shouldn’t matter how many gold stars that set has, right? We can always compare the total pop of gold stars across EX sets that have 2 or 3 gold stars to get a sense of their print runs? (Still need to exclude some clear outliers like ray).

[jonandek]

@nostalgiaoldbird

@jonandek

Since EX TRR, Deoxys and Delta Species all have three gold stars and, according to the best data I could find, the same 1:72 pull rate for gold stars, the PSA pop report may be a decent approximation for relative scarcity. I’d like to include power keepers in this too since it has three gold stars but apparently the pull rate in that set is much higher so I’ve left it out. here’s the gold star data from PSA. this is for total submissions, it ignores the grade:

TRR:
Mudkip 245
Torchic 223
Treecko 236

Average pop for gold star: 235

Deoxys:
Latias 251
Latios 255
Rayquaza 348

Average pop for gold star (have to exclude our friend Ray for obvious reason): 253

Delta Species:
Groudon 275
Kyogre 282
Metagross 304

Average gold star pop: 287

That’s pretty rough math and it’s certainly flawed, but it does support that TRR is scarcer than Deoxys which is in turn scarcer than delta species. hard to compare to anything WOTC except maybe Dark Raichu 1st edition. the pull rates are not known but are estimated to at least be within 50% of the gold stars, higher or lower. 1395 1st edition dark raichus have been submitted to PSA. even within the margin of error, it would appear each of these three EX sets are far scarcer than team rocket 1st edition. wish there was a comparison to something later WOTC though as that was clearly a very heavily printed set. ah just thought of aquapolis. three crystal rares with a pull rate of 1:36. here’s the pop for those (divide by two to compare with EX series above):

Kingdra 387 (divided by two 194)
Lugia 548 (274)
Nidoking 441 (221)

This is skewed by the relative desirability of the cards, but the average crystal pop excluding lugia is 414, or 207 on an apples-to-apples basis with the EX series above. This would suggest aquapolis is scarcer than all three of the EX series. If skyridge is scarcer than aquapolis, that would likely give it the title for scarcest set but I don’t have the data to back up the skyridge assertion that’s just what everyone seems to state as fact. Of course none of this analysis is perfect. but it’s some of the only data we have. and I think the data for the cards I used is pretty good, even with the outliers of Lugia and Rayquaza in there. If someone has more accurate data for pull rates or a better methodology for accounting for Lugia and Rayquaza this could be refined further. would be great if there was a way to include power keepers but the estimated pull rates seem to be a wide range and to me don’t match with the pops in a way that makes those pull rates seem correct.

One of the most convincing methodology! One quick question, assuming the gold star pull rate is 1 out of 2 boxes / 72 packs, then it shouldn’t matter how many gold stars that set has, right? We can always compare the total pop of gold stars across EX sets that have 2 or 3 gold stars to get a sense of their print runs? (Still need to exclude some clear outliers like ray).

Yes great point. it would be great to have this same math for each EX series to have a directional sense. Maybe a weekend or rainy day project sometime.

[pokecollectoramy]

@jonandek

@pokecollectoramy

So using extremely simple basic math, if average is 235 for the trr GS pops, x3 = 705 x 72 = 50,760. Is it possible that there was under 100,000 boxes for the run? That would seem extremely small. I am expecting there could be 700 gold stars out there ungraded (they aren’t that hard to find on eBay) and certainly still sealed boxes (which seems much more scarce) but maybe not? Now that prices have increased perhaps we will see more come on to the market

the ungraded pop is definitely an unknown. but I think 1000 gold stars (PER gold star) is a decent estimate. take rayquaza as an example because more of the copies have presumably been graded than any other gold star. of the 349 (graded pop moved by one since last night!), 277 of them are PSA 7,8,9,10. That means 79% are in the upper part of the range. If you believe that in reality, the distribution of grades should look more like a bell curve with the fat part in the middle (PSA 4, 5, 6) range, and the “tails” are 25% each. then you can take 277/.25 which yields 1108 gold stars. because pokemon cards are more durable, even when people play with them, then maybe the fat part of the bell curve is more in the 5,6,7 range or even the 6,7,8 range. those would suggest 984 and 728 copies, respectively. While it’s not precise, a few interesting conclusions can be drawn. First, it’s not unreasonable to think that certain gold stars may have rarity in line, or probably even less, than Alpha rare cards from magic the gathering (print run of 1100). That’s one way to put their rarity in perspective. Second, a reasonable guess as to print runs of some of these EX series sets (this one would be for deoxys) could be:

1108x3x72: 239,000
984x3x72: 212,000
728x3x72: 157,000

It’s a wide range and again based on a lot of assumptions. But what I like about this type of analysis is that it gives a “directional” sense. You can rule some things out as being very unlikely even with a wide margin of error on the above math. one thing we didn’t account for doing the math with Ray is that while more have been submitted than any other card, there are probably a lot of re-submissions. taking that into account would only bring the numbers down further. but to me, the balancing factor to that is that there are probably still some higher grade, ungraded ray copies that have not been submitted. so maybe the two of those factors balance each other out. welcome others thoughts.

Like this. I’d say without question for rare cards like gold stars, the “fat” part of the curve is 6-7-8. Kids knew they were rare even back then and would have tried to protect them.

[drazirahc]

I have been collecting sealed boxes from the ex era since 2008. The by far most difficult boxes to find have been Deoxys and Dragon. You still see Deoxys surface now and then due to its high value I guess. In the last twelve months I have at least seen a handfull of transactions, and a few breaks. Dragon I rearly see anymore. Dragon is in my view also the most beautiful box to look at of them all, same goes for the Japanese version. Two weeks ago I sold my second Dragon box to a high end collector for 10k usd. So I guess this box has been highly underrated due to its lack of Goldstars.

[zorloth]

@drazirahc

I have been collecting sealed boxes from the ex era since 2008. The by far most difficult boxes to find have been Deoxys and Dragon. You still see Deoxys surface now and then due to its high value I guess. In the last twelve months I have at least seen a handfull of transactions, and a few breaks. Dragon I rearly see anymore. Dragon is in my view also the most beautiful box to look at of them all, same goes for the Japanese version. Two weeks ago I sold my second Dragon box to a high end collector for 10k usd. So I guess this box has been highly underrated due to its lack of Goldstars.

First of all: I’m VERY jealous of those boxes lol. I opened a Delta Species box ~6 years ago and hugely regret it, though it was only like $400 so it wasn’t too crazy at the time. Also $10k for a Dragon box??? That’s insane. I would’ve expected somewhere in the vicinity of $5-6k. But that’s awesome to hear. EX Dragon is in my top 3 EX-series sets; the Dragonite ex is the most beautiful ex ever printed, IMO, and the Latias/Latios box (and pack) art is stunning. I have many EX-era blisters, packs, and some tins, and I would love to re-acquire some boxes, too…they’re just so tough to come across these days.

[jawsh98]

@jonandek

Since EX TRR, Deoxys and Delta Species all have three gold stars and, according to the best data I could find, the same 1:72 pull rate for gold stars, the PSA pop report may be a decent approximation for relative scarcity. I’d like to include power keepers in this too since it has three gold stars but apparently the pull rate in that set is much higher so I’ve left it out. here’s the gold star data from PSA. this is for total submissions, it ignores the grade:

TRR:
Mudkip 245
Torchic 223
Treecko 236

Average pop for gold star: 235

Deoxys:
Latias 251
Latios 255
Rayquaza 348

Average pop for gold star (have to exclude our friend Ray for obvious reason): 253

Delta Species:
Groudon 275
Kyogre 282
Metagross 304

Average gold star pop: 287

That’s pretty rough math and it’s certainly flawed, but it does support that TRR is scarcer than Deoxys which is in turn scarcer than delta species. hard to compare to anything WOTC except maybe Dark Raichu 1st edition. the pull rates are not known but are estimated to at least be within 50% of the gold stars, higher or lower. 1395 1st edition dark raichus have been submitted to PSA. even within the margin of error, it would appear each of these three EX sets are far scarcer than team rocket 1st edition. wish there was a comparison to something later WOTC though as that was clearly a very heavily printed set. ah just thought of aquapolis. three crystal rares with a pull rate of 1:36. here’s the pop for those (divide by two to compare with EX series above):

Kingdra 387 (divided by two 194)
Lugia 548 (274)
Nidoking 441 (221)

This is skewed by the relative desirability of the cards, but the average crystal pop excluding lugia is 414, or 207 on an apples-to-apples basis with the EX series above. This would suggest aquapolis is scarcer than all three of the EX series. If skyridge is scarcer than aquapolis, that would likely give it the title for scarcest set but I don’t have the data to back up the skyridge assertion that’s just what everyone seems to state as fact. Of course none of this analysis is perfect. but it’s some of the only data we have. and I think the data for the cards I used is pretty good, even with the outliers of Lugia and Rayquaza in there. If someone has more accurate data for pull rates or a better methodology for accounting for Lugia and Rayquaza this could be refined further. would be great if there was a way to include power keepers but the estimated pull rates seem to be a wide range and to me don’t match with the pops in a way that makes those pull rates seem correct.

Thank you for doing all of the above! This is the stuff that helps me understand everything!

[sacari]

@drazirahc Really cool collection and great information! Thanks for sharing! How difficult would you say EX team rocket returns boxes have been to find? My rough guess would be that EX dragon, EX deoxys, and EX team rocket returns are the 3 rarest of the EX series sets. And how have you found EX ruby and sapphire and EX sandstrom? I always felt like they are more common than EX dragon but I wasn’t sure if it only appeared that way because EX dragon is more popular.

Very excited to see so many people showing so much love and genuine interest in 3rd gen sets!

[drazirahc]

@sacari

@drazirahc Really cool collection and great information! Thanks for sharing! How difficult would you say EX team rocket returns boxes have been to find? My rough guess would be that EX dragon, EX deoxys, and EX team rocket returns are the 3 rarest of the EX series sets. And how have you found EX ruby and sapphire and EX sandstrom? I always felt like they are more common than EX dragon but I wasn’t sure if it only appeared that way because EX dragon is more popular.

Very excited to see so many people showing so much love and genuine interest in 3rd gen sets!

Ruby and Sandstorm are easier to find. If you look on Ebay, there are probably a few there, and I know both are currently available on Insta. There is also an ongoing auction on Ebay for TRR, currently at 10.6k usd, with 2 days to go, wouldnt be suprised if it went higher! Here is my whole collection of ex boxes, I think Dragon is the most sexy!!!

[hisoka107]

While ex TRR is highly sought after it wasn’t very hard to find back in the day. There were multiple sellers selling FRLG case fresh boxes and lots of TRR. Ex doexys was harder to find than TRR and I don’t think gold stars would be the best metric. It’s hard to say which one was more produced because certain sets were really playable.

For myself these were hardest to find sealed boxes.

1. Delta species
2. Ex dragon
3. Dragon frontiers
4. Deoxys

You have to compare a lot of metrics which is very confusing. some sets had harder sealed boxes to find but easier sealed packs. for a lot of the ex-series it seems like the singles were readily available.

[jonandek]

@hisoka107

While ex TRR is highly sought after it wasn’t very hard to find back in the day. There were multiple sellers selling FRLG case fresh boxes and lots of TRR. Ex doexys was harder to find than TRR and I don’t think gold stars would be the best metric. It’s hard to say which one was more produced because certain sets were really playable.

For myself these were hardest to find sealed boxes.

1. Delta species
2. Ex dragon
3. Dragon frontiers
4. Deoxys

You have to compare a lot of metrics which is very confusing. some sets had harder sealed boxes to find but easier sealed packs. for a lot of the ex-series it seems like the singles were readily available.

I have never played the game… out of curiosity what do you think were the most playable gold stars?