Thank you for taking the time to add to the discussion.
The two key questions I have,
Is there any knowledge of the approximate total supply?
Were they mounted to card originally in the 1990’s or recently?
Just watching a recent Rudy video on various mtg playtest cards and early material at 15:05 you can see where there are printed uncut paper sheets of concept cards that they used for presentation to investors. https://youtu.be/y46KoMvwE_s?t=905
A person with a cancer diagnosis (I send my heart out to him) is selling a certain quantity of the cards available on the market, but as you state that does not account for all of them (inc the ones on ebay/Mercari). It would be good to know the amounts being sold by different sellers, but I fully understand this is private information and not something that needs to be public. Is the statement that every ever prototype/playtest card being sold on the various platforms (goldin/fanatics,alt etc) are from this source? The implication that all the cards being sold are from this source is that this is an unusual circumstance/opportunity, disarming some of the buyers concerns about being dumped on (perhaps into the future, depending on the supply and choice of the holders). The other factor is that this provides a plausible explanation for why they would be being sold of course. People have asked the question, if these are so rare and special why would you be so eager to sell them quickly in vast quantities. These are the reasons why it would be good to clear up the ambiguity of who exactly is selling what here, though of course this is private information that nobody is owed. As buyers we are trying to gauge the supply and what is driving the sellers, to avoid the possibility of buying at initial high prices before they collapse due to more supply hitting the market.
It seems that the CGC pop report has been growing even within the last few days and there are some loose cards being listed. Any details on how widely Akabane sold would be interesting. The Mercari sellers based in Japan seems to indicate he has also sold a certain amount domestically. Details on how many existed initially and how they have been distributed subsequently would of course be cool to know, also if Akabane still holds some supply.
As a prospective buyer, what holds me back from buying at this moment is the idea that over the next year a steady supply of the cards will come out of the woodwork with the initial prices decreasing with time. This is not a complaint from me.
Meeting Akabane and discovering the cards must have been a special experience! The origins of it all!
Just like in a good top secret spy movie, I’m afraid this is where I have to leave it for now. Perhaps, with time, I can reveal more. But for the moment, that’s all I’m at liberty to say.
Thank you for posting in this thread, I think we have some more certainty around how they came from Akabane. I think we are still left in the dark on supply (without knowledge of the supply, it is impossible for the market to accurately value them. But people are bidding now with this uncertainty, what will be revealed later?) and when they were mounted on card, but I understand it might take some more time for these things to become more widely known. We now know a certain amount of the cards on the market are from someone with the diagnosis, but we do not know if it accounts for the majority or minority.
After my last thread, I swore I would never make another long post in the future. The future is here, and I am sad because of time constraints.
Edit - what I wrote below still feels long. Here’s a super TL;DR:
prototypes exist; don’t be too bothered by method of release; questions on authenticity; try to enjoy the hobby regardless; be open minded but don’t blindly accept new information without verifying and having a deeper understanding
I will try bullet form to keep my thoughts TL;DR:
At this point, hopefully people do not have doubts as to the existence of these prototypes. The reality is that proof of concepts and subsequent prototype iterations are mandatory for any robust project regardless of industry.
The way these were released to the public should not hinder the significance of the prototypes. The only things that were hindered by the method of release are the realized sold prices for these items because people do not have much information about the prototypes when they were made available publicly. Although not exactly similar, there have been many instances within the short history of Pokemon cards when early public perceptions of the card were not fully aligned with the fundamentals of the card (accepted significance of no rarities; impact of additional copies of trophies, snap cards, illustrators, and gold stars; etc.).
These prototypes did not just pop up overnight, just like how the multiple Illustrators did not just pop up overnight. Everything we have seen recently in the public eye have been in the making for at least two years now. Unironically, there were several key individuals who were involved in the release of both of these assets to the public market.
Healthy levels of skepticism are absolutely important, but do not muddy your skepticism as a justification to downplay the historical significance of the prototypes, as referenced in this thread.
The main skepticism that should be considered is understanding the authenticity of the cards themselves. Which of these (if not all) were actually created by the Pokemon Company, and which of these (if any) were created with some glue, matching cardstock, and an inkjet printer outside the Company? I saw some recent posts that said Akabane authenticated the current prototypes on the public market, and the verbiage needs to be clarified - From my understanding, Akabane only confirmed that these prototypes exist. It is unrealistic to assume that Akabane authenticated every single card that is currently on the market. If my understanding is flawed, someone please correct me, and let me know how Akabane authenticated “all” of the prototypes when not every card directly came from him. We have already seen pictures of cards that came from him directly, but unless it is made indisputably clear that every prototype came directly from him, I would caution people from blanketing authenticity by Akabane for all of the prototypes we are currently seeing.
The other skepticism that should be worth noting to fellow collectors is that without formal documentation from the Pokemon Company, the narrative of the prototypes have not been consistent. When the black and white “alpha protos” were first introduced to me earlier this year, they were pitched as one of one proof of concept cards created by Ishihara to present to the Pokemon Company. Since then, multiple copies of the set have surfaced and now the narrative is that these were the first prototypes of the cards and not the original proof of concept. Based on what I have seen, it is highly possible that the “proof of concept” verbiage could have been miscommunicated, as it would make sense that these black and white prototypes are in fact the first iteration of creating prototypes, resulting in duplicates. But originally stating to me that these were one of one still feels disingenuous.
Final thoughts: be completely honest with yourselves about whether you are collecting or investing. Can you still appreciate your collection if your Pokemon cards went to zero, or are you primarily enjoying the cards because of their current and expected monetary value? It is perfectly fine to enjoy Pokemon cards for both reasons, but try not to let your emotions dictate your perspectives when new information emerges. Stay open minded, but also be vigilant in asking the right questions, verifying the information you see.
It is these little slights of hand that keep me on edge, what else will change later? How much more supply is there?
Having said this. Yes, the only reason I am interested in the topic is because I would like to acquire one for my personal collection. But if I pay $10k today, in one year is the same card available for $600?
The biggest part of collecting is emotion. It’s very difficult to enjoy cards that raise more question than answers. Even some of the sellers of these cards have asked, “why are there so many”, “why are they all mint”. Even in your post you mentioned how the narrative changed on some of the prototypes you were offered. These prototypes are clearly a means to an end from Akabane, to the people selling for him, to the people buying from him. They aren’t concerned with their history, providence, or significance. They aren’t cherished at all in that process. It’s like if a random person off the street broke into pokemon HQ and was tasked with selling the goods.
What should be “whoa I can’t believe these are for sale”, is mostly, “whoa what”, because of how they are handled. I don’t doubt the physical authenticity, but there are so many unanswered questions it makes these difficult to enjoy. If I ask myself as the collector who got into japanese promos because they have such cool release stories, these and the sheet cut scraps feel like if team rocket were factory leaking pokemon cards. I feel like I’m trying to convince myself to like these cards, which is something I’ve never had to do in my almost 20 years of collecting.
What is CGC using other than the word of Akabane to authenticate these? Genuine question. I have not heard of any other method or source used to authenticate these outside from his explanation.
Following up on that, I also have not seen any evidence or reason to believe a single copy came from a source that doesn’t lead back to Akabane.
Akabane being the source of the card, the proof of authenticity and the primary financial benefactor of all this is, frankly, unsettling to me. Of course, I’m working with grossly incomplete information so maybe there’s more to it. But I can only work with and build an opinion from the information I have.
The rose-coloured glasses post you make about this seems a bit odd to me given you indirectly say in the quoted part that you really don’t know how all these copies were authenticated or even where they all are coming from. I think for most people reading this, that is the major unaddressed concern that is the through-line of this thread.
To gain a bit of trust I would like for them to be forthcoming with what they know about the supply, even if it is counterintuitive to their immediate profits. None of this 'oh there is only one…(sells it) ‘Oh there is only a few’…(sells them)… ‘oh woopsie here are some more’…(sells them) and so on… From the outside, the only interpretation I can make from this is that they are downplaying the supply as much as possible to achieve prices based on a perception that they are more rare than they are.
This being said, I do not think they owe us this information. But as you say, the feeling it gives is that the information they are giving us is one that is financially beneficial to them rather than one that gives us accurate information. Once we know there are say 300-500 of each card with certainty (hypothetically), then perhaps the waters will feel less murky.
There is definitely a lot of private sales and advertising on ig lately. I see many giveaways as well to show them and likely increase eyes on the auctions.
How have the ones on goldin done? Are they getting the crazy prices we saw listed BIN?
They went for quite a lot, there were not many available for sale at the time. From the next day onward a large supply has been hitting the various platforms. I actually underbid some of the high priced ones at goldin, having got wrapped up in the initial excitement. I felt some relief losing the bid, and then the next day when around 100 more were listed I felt like I had dodged a bullet. Now I am reassessing my approach…
The ig sales is a whole other factor. The transactions are obscured from the wider market so we have no idea of the sales volume or prices. Any large volumes wouldn’t spook the market in the same way. The buyers are probably using things like the goldin auction results as a loose price guide too. It all feels a bit like a race to sell.
There is allegedly going to be a pikachu prototype going up for sale at sothebys too, a lot of people will feel this gives them more credibility. For me, I am chiefly interested in supply numbers. Apart from concerns about when they were mounted on card, the context of their existence etc all the rest is peripheral to me.
Forgive me for injecting some positivity into this topic, but I love the alpha prototypes. I think they are just about the coolest thing ever. I’ve always been a fan of the videogames first and trading cards came second for me. These prototypes bridge the gap between the games and the TCG and capture such a specific and interesting point in history which is just so cool to me.
The way they are being treated and sold is a shame, I agree. I completely understand folks’ apprehension regarding unanswered questions, but among all the uncertainty, one of the things that seems to be at least somewhat agreed-upon is their authenticity. Enough individuals whom I consider trustworthy have said something along the lines of “yeah I don’t doubt their authenticity”. That is enough for me, regardless of how many copies there are. It may not be enough for you, and that’s okay, that’s exactly why we have places like this to discuss, but it’s enough for me to love them. I’m optimistic and excited to see how this plays out and I do hope people’s apprehensions get put to rest.
