I noticed someone on the patreon asking why the Japanese 1996 Base Set cards and sealed product are still so cheap, mentioning that boosters can go for as “low” as $30 and boxes as low as $3000. smpratte replied that this is mostly because of demand, since the english set has much more demand than the japanese one.
Even so, I would expect the cards, the packs, and the boxes to be bid up significantly more in the future, since these are likely the first items to end up in museums. And certainly to an extent, the more interest comes to the english side and bids up prices, the more interest will tend to “overflow” to this older and original set, even if english is still the most sought after.
Or is this analysis wrong and this set will forever be relegated to obscurity, even though it was literally the first print 3 years before the english one?
Would be good to hear your opinions on why or why not this set might ever become relevant, both as a piece of history or just in terms of prices.
I always think that this is one of the defining sets for pokemon tcg because it is the first and as the franchise grows this becomes the set that ‘started it all’ - everyone will always be able to relate to that regardless of whether it is japanese or english.
Strictly comparing the base set of the two different languages, as smpratte noted, the demand is higher for english cards (as with almost all sets that have an english counterpart) the japanese cards are also more ‘straightforward’ as there really isn’t any variations like 1st/shadowless/base/UK prints so collecting them is easier (not counting no rarity) For an old set it also seems like there is a lot of supply on ebay and on yahoo japan etc.
I think at some point when the supply runs out and if the desire to collect the OG japanese base set is still going strong prices will definitely go up but beyond that, I am happy that this set is still affordable and within reach so whoever likes pokemon cards will always have a chance to have this in their collection
There are 125 million people in the world that speak Japanese.
There are 1.5 billion people in the world that speak English.
That alone will consistently keep English values for products with relatively equal cross-language print runs higher. What came first doesn’t matter for high-volume products. A premium for early products only follows if the circumstances of the demand drive it upward. There has to be some type of scarcity involved.
The set is highly relevant. It’s the base set. English Unlimited packs, the most similar English equivalent, were under $25 for almost 15 years, which is incredibly high! Name a product in this hobby with the same quantity for the price point. You’ll struggle.
Regarding the museum remark, if a museum ever did become a thing, it would likely only be one exhibit within a larger museum. As an entity, this will never have a large effect on the broader market for anything other than high-end cards for which one copy represents a relatively large percentage of the available population (available being the number that appears for sale within a 10 or 20 year period). It’s also worth noting that only a limited number of museums purchases and possess items. A larger portion of museum displays are loaners from private collections.
But the museum remark is more of a tangential conversation. What you seem to be implying is that there should be an immediate and obvious connection between prices and a product that is older. But this is a correlative association. I believe if Scott were to elaborate on his response he would agree that what he is really getting at is that supply/demand is the simplified causative trend that underlies the correlation you’re identifying. Older products tend to earn more because they have a diminished supply. They don’t earn more because they are old, necessarily. Most old singles are of limited value. 1st Edition Base Set lightly played uncommons and commons are available en masse for bulk rates. It’s the effect that age has on the supply that trends toward giving products a price boost.
As a piece of history, the price has no bearing on how cool it is. They’re rad. I’ve got a stack of them and I don’t even collect Japanese sealed product.
As a price? There could be a breaking point in the supply where the price comes up. It’s feasible. It is not likely to be dramatic or quick, though, from what I can see.
The number one reason Japanese base doesn’t sell as well: It was released in English.
Charlie hit it on the head, especially with the amount of people who speak English vs Japanese. The English speaking market is the strong majority market. The product that excels in Japanese will always be cards not released in English. That is a fundamental truth.
The silver lining, Japanese base is very affordable. If you do value the fact it was released in 1996, it won’t break the bank.
I want to reiterate. The disparity is much higher than 125 Million people speak Japanese and 1.5 billion, English. 124 Million Japanese speakers are in Japan/Okinawa. Only 1+ Million grace the rest of the world.
Look in any old kids binder and you may see one or two Japanese cards that were saved cause of the novelty of it. They never entered their dreams.
To Charlie’s point, normally significance, rarity, and a touch of interest land on museum shelves. You’re not likely to find a Triceratops‘ horny beak in Scott’s office so you’d have to go to a museum to see one.
