Completely hypothetical question, and unrealistic to occur anytime soon:
What would happen to the value of cards printed from 1996-2022 if Pokémon stopped as a franchise right now (2022). No new games, no new cards, just done.
Here are 3 outcomes:
A.) Card values will go down since people will lose interest with nothing new coming out, and no new kids enter the hobby.
B.) Card values will go up since people’s monthly card budget is no longer going towards new sets, so they buy cards already printed.
C.) Little change in value. The same number of people interested remains the same, and the amount of cards on the market stays the same.
With the way a lot of people are now where the goal is to “invest”, I can see the value go up as people snatch up as much as they can in the hopes that 10-20 years from now the prices skyrocket. I’m sure they’ll be one rarer too as people lose cards.throw them away. Kind of like the prices of sports cars. 10 years ago, my dream car was like 5-10k. Now it’s 45k.
Obviously pokemon will continue making cards. If they stopped, it would eliminate many speculators. However it would also eliminate new collectors who enter from exciting modern releases. There would be a bit more barrier to entry, as you couldn’t just go to the store and buy product.
Pokemon would ultimately be fine without new cards. It survived the worst recession (hopefully) of our lifetime.
edit: added this food for thought.
Here’s a similar but more thought provoking question, I think:
What would we, personally do, if TPC stopped printing cards, without any warning, just, “Hey, we’re done”?
People are fairly predictable animals. Many’ll have FOMO, rush out, buy all the stock in stores, but vintage and legacy (gonna stick with that term for now ) will remain relatively the same, I can see some people thinking
“Oh! THAt’s it! PkMn is dead.” While others will simply says “Selling? Yes, please.”
I’m curious why you specified a range of almost all cards printed to date? I don’t think the effect would be universal across that whole range.
IDK what would happen to newer cards in the long term, possibly it increases at first but then, how many zillion cards were printed? I don’t think that can sustain value for long. The older stuff, however, would be pretty solid, and FOMO might push prices higher for a bit. Again, assuming they just simply stopped in the middle of
It’s a very interesting question, great conversation starter.
Pokemon hasn’t produced a card I love (as opposed to “cool” with an aftertaste) since 2008.
They haven’t produced a game I love since 2012.
They haven’t fascilitated a metagame I love since 2013.
One could say the whole franchise has been dead to me for near of a decade. My interest is yet to be blunted, at least to any severe degree.
On the other hand; let’s say Pagani stops making the Zonda, my favorite supercar. It isn’t the death of cars, nor is it the death of supercars. Everything surrounding it is still alive and kicking, and I could migrate to or fall in love with any number of different car types.
Is my interest dependent upon continuation beyond what I make of it myself?
To what degree is my interest dependent upon the interest of others?
To what degree does the outer infrastructure dictate the workings of the inner?
My and friends have gone over similar things about model trains, a hobby in a different state. Extremely stable, but frail by numbers.
In my opinion :
Extremely rare and valuable cards will go up in price, because those with large pockets no longer have a clue what to buy so they will focus on those.
All other cards will lose value (but in the first period prices will probably rise, due to speculation. But little by little they will notice that people are starting to lose interest and these people will start selling the cards even going at a loss ).
So many people started collecting because they were influenced by youtube, instagram, facebook etc. these “influencers” in turn will have nothing more to offer if Pokemon stops producing cards. They will probably change sectors. There will be less and less news in the world of Pokemon.
I think it would depend if Pokémon as franchise still remained relevant through the games and anime. If the entire franchise died off we might see a supposed sealed case of the GI Joe TCG loaded with 1st Edition Base Set boxes lol.
Does the continued influx of new product and collectors REALLY have that much bearing on WotC and especially base set? I just don’t think that’s the case.
Again, I think we gotta ask: What would we, personally do, in this event?
What was that card?
Hard to believe interest can be maintained when you don’t love any cards for nearly 15 years.
If you use the analogy of movie franchises or brands, people lose interest quickly when the quality drops. But, if it was 15 years of average movies, I mean, that’s commitment I guess.
I was going to say this:
IDK. People LOVE the original Star Wars Trilogy, but the quality of the new stuff has (divisively, but certainly in some people’s opinions) dropped. YET, lovers of the classics still love and indulge their love.
But I think @c0ll3ct0r needs to clarify: Do you only collect old stuff, 2008 and earlier? That makes sense with what you said, but if not, I also have the question @bk2021 suggests: How do you bring yourself to engage with/collect new releases?
Yes, I only collect old stuff.
If Pokemon stopped making cards I would accelerate them to the floor.
If its as stated in the op where pokemon ceases as a franchise id give 10 years before it really starts to die out
The top few iconic cards might retain value. The rest will drop in value significantly.
The worst recession of our lifetime so far
Interesting question. It may give rise to a lot of creativity from fans to be able to keep the spirit of Pokemon cards going on for a long time.
From TCG perspective, maybe the game can sustain for years to come with modifications to rules and custom gameplay mechanics.
From collectors perspective, we may get to see a lot more custom cards, or what if CHR/CSR’s. There will be a lot of talented artists and illustrators who will probably keep creating arts for cards which might get popular as collectibles on their own.