I guess I’m one of the people for which little has changed. Fortunately, I already built the bulk of my collection in terms of value years ago. I’m at the stage in which I buy some random stuff here and there but my main goals for the most part have already been met.
I still want to buy all the Japanese/English set cards in raw Near Mint condition for my binder collection, but the price for that would be very little compared to the value of what I already own.
The only cards for which price may discourage me from getting what I want is with some of the rarest trophies, but frankly if prices have changed for trophies in the last few months you would barely know it, just because sales data is so hard to come across (although one would certainly think that prices have gone up for these cards the same way they have for set cards).
Pokemon was bigger than MTG in their respective hayday. If people were more patient than a 1 year outlook they’d see what the hobby has in store in the future. [/quote]
Agreed. I was looking at the population of total alpha magic cards vs 1st ed base and it looked like on a per card basis there was maybe 4-5 times as many 1st ed base cards graded (maybe somebody has an actual number?). However, a lot of the magic data was from Beckett’s reports which I know can be unreliable at times. When you look at how expensive some of the alpha cards are like the power 9 and more specifically, how expensive they are in lower grades I don’t see why some of the Pokémon cards like 1st ed base holos can’t reach near that level. I understand that alpha is rarer (again guessing maybe 4-5 times rarer based on population data) and some of the cards have a lower gem mint ratio 9.5/10 vs 9s but when you consider how much more popular Pokémon is, this can definitely move the prices closer to each other due to the massive demand for vintage Pokémon product.
@somepokemonguy I usually don’t try to compare the two for those reasons. But… if you were to dissect the nature of their releases, popularity and relative age bracket I think you’d find that Pokemon has a leg up on MTG in those aspects that are well beyond pop reports.
All of this barely needs mentioning though as many here already acknowledge this
this is where if you are able to find cheap money on loan, you can do what people in the financing world have done for ages: use other people’s money to invest. just a thought. yes, there is always risk associated, but this is how the financial world works. you seem to be able to find trends before others, so that is amazing!
just to share a bit of my own collecting strategy. i’ve shared my passion for pokemon with friends and family. for the most part, it is difficult to convince them to get into it because it’s not their hobby. but a few family members and close friends have trusted in me and have pitched in to purchase some larger items. the result has been good always. then you can convert your capital and go after bigger cards or other goals. most people can’t keep throwing in capital.
In short, ‘yes.’
I started collecting again early last year. By that time, there were cards that will forever be out of reach, such as Neo Spring Battle Trophy cards, first Pikachu trophy cards, Pokemon Illustrator, etc. especially in high grades. With many trophy cards, I have decided only to seek out a very select few in PSA 10s. I am happy with getting many trophy cards in grades below PSA 7. I have also decided to seek out Masaki Promos in PSA 8s instead of 9s or 10s. I have almost all of the set cards I want in the grades I want for English Pokemon. The biggest exceptions are certain gold stars and shining pokemon (surprise, surprise). However, set cards will always pop back up sooner or later and I am happy to play the long game for 1st Edition 9s. There are certain cards that I see quickly going out of reach such as POP 5 series Gold Star Umbreon and Espeon. I was hoping to get 10s but now I have decided I would be happy with 8s and 9s as well. I even want to pick up 6s and less (I love them). Essentially, I have compromised for lower grades on many things, but on some stuff I just decided to take more time saving up money.
It is discouraging and frustrating to see a card skyrocket in value, but I try to see it as an opportunity to not feel obligated to buy the card right away. I also remind myself that this means that other cards in my current collection are also increasing quite a bit in value, which is awesome. This Pokemon Boom has forced me to think harder about my collection goals and decide on which cards I’d be happy to have in any way as opposed to ones I desperately want in a 10. Overall, I am a happy camper despite having to refine my collection goals. Seeing lower graded cards gain value kind of takes the pressure off of getting all 10s.
@jkanly yup, the comparison definitely won’t be perfect but it’s interesting to look at. I agree that those advantages outweigh the rarity advantage alpha has. This is why I’m also more confident in the long-term prospect of vintage Pokémon. Of course, there very well can and will be short-term price dips for some cards in certain grades as cards that weren’t worth grading now are. Overall, I’m confident in the future of vintage Pokémon prices but I’m also a collector on a Pokémon website so take that with a grain of salt haha
I have been worried about that recently. But then I remember I’m likely still going to be in the hobby ten years from now so I can’t even imagine what my collection will be then! I’ve only been collecting for 4 years. I’ve got plenty of time and nothing to worry about.
I’m lucky in that I don’t think I’ve been priced out of any collection goals yet so I can still afford to take things slowly. I’m also fairly flexible in my collecting, as I don’t have a particular need for any specific card. For example, some of my collection goals include a few gold stars but I don’t have to have a psa 10 copy. I’d be incredibly happy with an 8 or 9 and I’d be happy if it was in English or Japanese. A lot of cards I really like are still incredibly affordable in psa 9/10 in Japanese and that’s wonderful feeling. While I’d love to have the English copy, I don’t feel any less happy with a Japanese card.
I’m also fairly lucky in that my collecting taste and goals have made it so that most of what I’m interested in is modern Pokemon and that makes it infinitely easier and more affordable. Probably the most expensive thing I really want is a PSA 10 Burning Shadows Rainbow Charizard and that’s both quite common and relatively affordable compared to something like a gold star rayquaza or torchic.
Normally I would agree. And It depends on what you mean in regards long term?
Currently I have been blown away by the continuous and fast upward trend in prices. I personally don’t like committing too much at this stage as this is a completely out of the ordinary situation, that is why I would prefer to wait a few months to see where we are at then. At some point the market has surely got to settle. That is when I will make a decision on where I want to put my money from the sales I have made in the past two months. No one knows what will happen in the future but I remember buying some PSA 8 1st edition base holos back in 2017 when prices were just undergoing a rapid rise at the time for 1st edition base. I had made the decision to swap from PSA 9 as I thought I would be priced out very soon. The prices ended up plateauing and staying at around that price or only showing a small amount of growth for the next 2 years or so.
Yup but I was able to get a hold of my main collection wants. Just won’t be able to complete sets like I used to but that is perfectly fine with me. I feel immensely grateful for what I already have.
And to the OP, definitely. But they’re cards I think I’d rather not have anyway because it would feel weird (if not wrong) to have so much money (or opportunity cost) in Pokémon cards, let alone just a few cards!
I don’t know if I’m ‘priced out’ necessarily, but as someone collecting complete NM/M raw EX-series sets, the current price of Rayquaza gold star is definitely affecting how quickly I’ll be able to reach my goal. It’s one thing to spend $4-5k to complete a set, but now it’s looking like I’ll probably have to end up spending that much all at once on a single card. There was a raw one on eBay auction that just ended yesterday. It was at $1100 when I first saw it, so I put in a snipe of $2500, which I was pretty damn confident would win it. I had the perception that a raw NM one was worth $1500ish, and I figured I’d just bite the bullet and pick up the card. But, of course, the card ended at $3700.
If that’s the true price of the card now, then that’s a pretty annoying roadblock for completing my sets. I’m mostly working on them sequentially, and I’m currently about 75% of the way done with TRR and 99% done with the preceding 6 sets. I’ve already dropped thousands and thousands of dollars on the sets, cracking many PSA 8s (and some 9s) and often buying several copies of each raw card to find a NM one. But now it looks like probably all I’ve spent up to this point I’ll have to spend again on just a single damn card…if I’m lucky and the price doesn’t continue to increase. It’s much more satisfying to have several complete sets than just one card, so I’m tempted to just put the Rayquaza on the backburner and finish up everything else first. The thought of having to spend $4-5k on a single card just feels daunting, much more so than if I had to spend that much to complete a full set. I’ll still be able to accomplish my collecting goals, but it’s going to be much more drawn out and expensive than I had expected and hoped it would be . But I guess it will be that much more satisfying to complete!
@zorloth You pretty much echoed my own thoughts. It’s not like I don’t spend thousands upon thousands on my collection but I prefer to personally do that while completing whole sets vs just a card or two worth a ton. My most expensive card is 1st edition Shining Zard but I couldn’t do without that one! That Rayquaza is amazing tho. Not sure what it goes for in light played but that might be a much easier option
Oh, don’t get me wrong, it’s a beautiful card. I personally think it’s the best looking gold star. It’s just nuts for a set card that was in regular print to be worth like $4k raw. Maybe that one just went higher than it’s worth because it looked like PSA 8 or higher quality. I’ve noticed this happening quite a bit. Just earlier, I put a VERY generous snipe of $60 on a raw NM Electrode ex and it ended up going for $90 (!). All of this person’s auctions have been going crazy high (kellystoon40xz) and it’s nuts. I’ve gotten some really nice cards from them, but the reality is that raw cards are still raw cards. PSA grading, IMO, has made raw NM card collecting a real challenge. Anything that looks remotely gradable is now getting graded prices. They had a Deoxys ex that ended up going for $125, which I already have and paid literally $25 for within the past two weeks (for an almost pristine copy). In light of all this, your suggestion of going for LP cards seems highly sensible. I just hate having cards with certain condition flaws. And EX Deoxys holos look TERRIBLE with any amount of wear. The ink chips off and the edges get terrible silvering. If LP was what it was for MTG (i.e., a couple tiny white nicks on the back edges and/or a super faint scratch or two) it’d be great; but, in all likelihood, an LP Rayquaza gold star would look miserable. I’ll certainly be keeping my eye out, though.
@zorloth Ya I’ve noticed that myself anything mint or close goes for close to cost or more of already graded. And ya light played is different to everyone. To me there should be three main categories. Mint. Light played. Damaged/heavy played/creased/dented/heavy scratched any significant damage should be noted in title and sold under that category. Light played to me at least is a pretty much clean card with some whitening but not a ton. Off center or a print line or light scratch. Near mint is so subjective. Technically you can buy a light played and label it near mint. I rarely notice a difference unless it’s truly mint or close
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. But I guess it will be that much more satisfying to complete!