Guide to early EX Series pull rates

Hi Zorloth, I stumbled upon your Ex Thread which is quite interesting to know. So thanks for that. I didn’t realize that for ruby, sandstorm and dragon, holos were just as hard to pull or harder. This is in now way reflected in PSA prices. Personally, I keep collecting the ex cards because I just enjoy the holo boarder.

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Interest stats, one box doesn’t even guarantee one gold star for many series hmm

Not only does one box not guarantee a gold star, but 100 boxes doesn’t either (because that’s how statistics works lol). You pull a gold star 1/2 boxes, but your chance of pulling at least one gold star in 2 boxes is 75%. There’s zero ‘guarantee’ with gold star pull rates, assuming these aren’t boxes from the same case (which are rumored to have contained at least 2, but usually 3, gold stars)

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Yup, I mean on average! As opposed to guarantee!

Hmmm. Bit of a weird thing I just discovered. In some Ruby Sapphire packs with exs, the composition is as follows:

5 commons
2 uncommons
1 reverse holo
1 ex

and in others it’s:

4 commons
2 uncommons
1 reverse holo
1 ex
1 rare

So now I’m genuinely confused lol. It looks like they must’ve changed the composition at some point in the print run?

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Probably, I’ve noticed this before. Some boxes have it one way, some the other way.

I can see a few possible scenarios:

  1. There is some x factor about the E-reader thick bottom holographic cards that benefit from having a middle-of-the-pack insert (or some close approximation of it, like EX Dragon). Some of the Ruby Sapphire EXs (and all the TMTA EXs) are the only thick bottom border holo cards within the entire E-reader era deviating from this. The former seems to have been a short-lived fluke (or the opposite), and the latter is the only E-reader set to feature the then new 1-in-12 packs ratio of EX cards (and the only E-reader set not featuring the thick bottom on the regular holos).

  2. There is something about the balance of pulls for competitive use that necessitates the EX not being in the regular rare slot in Ruby Sapphire specifically. Or, perhaps just as likely, it is the other way around. Ruby Sapphire is the only set in the entire EX era to feature regular common Energy cards (usually in the exact slot the holo/EX would be). Maybe replacing 12 common cards per box was too much, but 6 was fine hence the regular holos always being in the middle.

  3. Diving deep into tinfoil territory, perhaps the change was intentional? They wanted to go the middle-of-the-pack route, but had to churn out a certain number of replacing-rare boxes to get the right number of common energy cards into circulation?

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Can you explain the math behind the GS estimates here? I’m trying to wrack my brain around it.

2 gold stars in DF, and you pull one gold star every 2 boxes. This means you pull .25 of each gold star per box, on average. I round to the nearest tenth, which may be what is confusing you.

Ahh okay yeah the .3 was throwing me off, thank you!

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