I had to provide them proof to bid on some other high end items but quite frankly 375k+ is on another scale. What do you even show them, proof of ownership of a couple of houses? A picture of 200k in high end slabs? I’m sure a bank account with a few tens of thousands lying around wouldn’t do.
Being in Europe it would be an issue to even move that amount of money and most certainly would have to be planned on multiple layers. Doable for sure but ye it’d be on a scale of difficulty similar to buying from pkonno on yahoo at that point. In which case you’d just have to slowly gather the money waiting for the next copy to pop up.
The card sold for a great price. Clearly that grade contributed to what it achieved.
I don’t think most users are pointing to the idea that the card underperformed. I think it is more the idea that almost everyone’s speculated guesses turned out to be exceedingly optimistic. It happens.
But at the end of the day they were just a bunch of blind guesses – which was the whole purpose of this thread.
It was still an exciting outcome and both the buyer and seller should be very happy.
I was way off too. I would have been way off guessing the price on the #2 as well. I would have been way off if you asked me a year ago to draw out the 12 month trajectory on just about any card even for cards that I own and have bought and sold in the past 12 months.
I had assumed the price would end well over $500k, trusting that efour had the best insight into the market. However, as the market rapidly expands, efour becomes a smaller subset of the massive hobby.
I still don’t understood why 1st edition base pikachu is selling at such a high price, yet sports collectors see it as THE rookie pokemon. I don’t understand how a topsun charizard sold for $480k. I don’t understand how no rarity is even close to on par with 1st edition base, yet collectors from MTG see similarities to their “alpha” set. Rarity collectors don’t understand why a person would spend $350k on charizard and set collectors don’t understand spending $375k on an illustrator.
Collectors from sports, MTG, crypto and everything else have joined. They all have different strategies of collecting. I’ve accepted that my opinions and beliefs are less relevant every day. I think the best way forward is to keep an open mind and observe. New cards will rise to the top. Others will fall. Ultimately, the market will price items appropriately.
My guess was over 500k. Actually, it was more a hope than a guess.
I was hoping these big price increases this year would drag Jpn cards along cause that’s healthy for the market overall.
This result is concerning.
Found this thread incredibly interesting - so many wide price estimates but I also dont think many took massive amounts of time to estimate a price neither so i wouldnt take any estimates people made too serious here.
I know very little on trophy cards and own none so my understanding in this area is poor, I do think the grade was a massive factor in this though. I mean look at the price difference between ANY PSA 7 compared to a PSA 10 across ANY set, trophy or promo card.
If the PSA 7 went for the $350-400k range, the PSA 8 may be perhaps $600-800k based on the jumps we typically see, the 9 could be north of $1m and a 10 copy would in theory be 3-4X that of a PSA 9 to $3m no?
That doesnt sound like a market crash to me, even if these jumps wouldnt be as extreme due to the fact the card is actually rarer then the grade itself matters, even if those jumps in price grades are half of the extremity we see typically its still a significant price.
Generally Japanese cards are doing very well! Looking through the recent PWCC block, the Japanese Neo shinings sold at similar or higher prices than their English 1st edition counterparts in the same grades, and Japanese no rarity sold at higher prices than 1st edition base counterparts in the same grade. Something that is becoming the norm… All the various old and new Japanese-exclusive promos are doing great as well, but hard to compare those with anything on the English side.
I think this is a good explanation. We got a lot of things wrong this past year. Although there may be disagreements, we all come from the same perspective, which is that of a serious Pokémon collector and enthusiast. To get a more balanced view of the market and hobby, it might make sense to try to understand the perspective of these other hobbies (like how sports values rookie cards). Like it it not, this hobby has grown and hopefully these new collectors are here to stay.
It’s true it’s only one result, though it’s also true 90% of the people here expected a better result. To most people it underperformed, including me I guess, though maybe concerning is too strong a word at this point.
The PSA 7 Illustrator sold for 30x more than the PSA 7 1st Ed Charizards. Both are icons of the hobby in the same grade. Is 30x really not enough for a “trophy premium”? I see no reason to be concerned with the Illustrator ending price.
All true. I just want to add that the Japanese Neo Shinings are not just some anomaly, they behave exactly as they should when you consider the very low pop numbers for psa 10s and compare them to English. Many of the Japanese Shinings have only 20-30 psa 10 in existence. The 1st edition cards in English alone have hundreds. Vice-versa, the Japanese Crystals are currently not more valuable than the English ones, because there are way more Japanese Psa 10s than English Psa 10s.
Laballa
Japanese