This originally started out as a way to figure out whether mint cards are hard to find or if there was more competition in the market. The data itself is useful enough that I thought to share it.
The number of cards submitted has fallen off a cliff and will continue to do see it appears (roughly 35-40 for each card in 2019-2020).
The number of charizards graded is inline with other cards from the set. Makes me think that Charizard are no more regraded than any other card. The population count could be more accurate than initially thought.
Agreed, as time goes on you’d expect less high quality cards to be submitted. Therefore, less % of PSA 10s being graded could be because of lower quality cards submitted, harsher grading or a combination. I don’t think we can prove that grading is more harsh.
The data is striking when you notice how few 1st edition Base Set holos have been graded as PSA 10s in the last 18 months or so.
The average holo (not counting Machamp) has seen a population growth of less than 3 in that 18-month period. No Charizard has been graded as a 10 within the last year, and only 2 have been graded as a 10 within the last 2+ years. No Chansey has been graded as a 10 in the last 2 years.
The pack fresh 1st ed Base holos have just been drained out and unlike what happened after Pokemon Go (when the price of the box and packs were like 1/4th of what they are now) no one is making the calculation that it’s wise to open the sealed product anymore… unless you’re going for YouTube glory anyway (few and far between).
If you had “invested” your money in set cards in the last couple of years, you would have done much better putting your money into things like PSA 8 and PSA 9 WOTC other than Base Set (cards that hadn’t had their moment of growth yet). In my mind, we’ve reached a tipping point - there are plenty of holos in other sets that sell for much more than many 1st ed Base holos in the same grade. Going into the future, I would expect the population of mint 1st ed Base holos to increase *much* more slowly than other WOTC sets. The fact that the box is worth at least 6x that of any other WOTC box should tell you something.
Perhaps 3 months ago, a PSA 10 1st ed Base Poliwrath was selling for about $1.2k. I told people on this forum that this was stupid cheap (although unsurprisingly it has since climbed up to about $2.5k). Nonetheless, I’ll use the same example I told then. It makes little sense that 1st ed Base Poliwrath/Nidoking and 1st ed Fossil Lapras are selling for about the same price with the same population. Even if Lapras is the lowest pop card in Fossil, it would be incredibly easy to expect its population to become much higher than the highest pop 1st ed Base holo over the course of many years, because there were far more 1st ed Fossil boxes produced and the box sells for maybe about 1/15th (1/20th?) of what a 1st ed Base box sells for. I could say the same thing about a card like Jungle Kangaskhan selling for $3k, which is more than what 1st ed Base Poliwrath/Nidoking sell for.
As a counter to this, since we’re ultimately buying artwork. The artwork of Nidoking and Poliwrath were printed almost twice as much as Lapras, and then had its reprint in Evolutions. If you wanted one of every artwork, the search for original Lapras artwork ends at Fossil.
Most kids (half of the US) had never seen a 1st edition base card in person in 1999-2000, so for many the satisfaction of their Base unlimited 10s satiates their nostalgia itch.
But I heartedly agree that ultimately the scarcity of 1st ed base will creep up very soon. I’m only evaluating as a hedge against waning availability though
The type of collector who simply wants 1 of each artwork (and therefore would be satisfied with an Evolutions Zard as opposed to a 1st edition Zard) generally isn’t the type of collector who is going to bother collecting PSA 9s/10s anyway.
Many people collect all of the original artworks in PSA 10. For many people PSA 10 unlimited Base is more or less their first edition. I not saying that to take anything away from Base 1st ed. My point, as my father would say, is that there’s “all types” of people.
Sure, with millions of collectors just about every type of collector you can imagine exists in some form.
But I’m playing the numbers and speaking in generalities. Most high-end collectors care about the difference between a 1st edition Zard and an Evolutions Zard.
So I don’t think the Zard re-print argument is particularly relevant when considering the future value of something like a PSA 9/10 1st edition Zard.
I was generalizing as well about the reprint example, but I could shift the assessment from evolutions to Base set 2 or Legendary collection. The same reason is why people are paying $40 for fake 1st ed. Charizard.
For Base there are planty of options. For Lapras and Kangaskhan there’s only one option. This is to say I believe their value is justified, while not saying that the low price of Base 1st ed is equally justified.
Again, I’m not saying there aren’t people who won’t be satisfied with a Base 2 Charizard or even a fake Charizard.
I just don’t think there are that many people who would have been willing to pay for a PSA 9/10 1st edition Charizard but since re-prints exist they will settle for those options instead.
I’m not sure if my point is hard to understand or not.
your point is clear, I’m just not sure we’re communicating effectively.
you were comparing the future value of PSA 10 1st ed charizard with Fossil Lapras and Kangaskhan. And said that the surplus Fossil boxes will gradually cause their pop to increase.
I’m saying that the artwork alternatives to 1st ed. Base stem the future growth of 1st ed. Base compared to Fossil, which has few alternatives. But it seems like we disagree on that point.
I get you. Anyway, both will probably go up in price as there will always be interested in that particular art - sooner or later it’ll be a question of being priced out or lack of supply for something like the PSA 9/10 1st edition Charizards
@jkanly, this is a pretty interesting POV. Some anecdotal evidence from MTG would be the Collector edition stuff (e.g. square bordered black lotus) versus an Alpha black lotus. They’ve literally got the same art work, but the price point varies immensely, and I don’t think the price of the Collector’s edition diminishes Alpha, Beta, or Unlimited Black Lotuses (loti…?)
