It seems that it would be pretty easy to reproduce convincing fake 1st Edition stamps. I know that they exist, but I’ve heard that they typically are easy to recognize. But I have to imagine that, at some point in the future, people will produce much more convincing counterfeit 1st Edition stamps. First of all: am I wrong about this? Second of all: if I’m not wrong, does this not pose a potential threat to the price premium of 1st Edition over Unlimited cards? I realize that there are differences between 1st Edition Base cards and Shadowless/non-Shadowless Unlimited Base cards besides the 1st Edition Stamp. But are there similar differences (i.e., in registration, holo-foiling, saturation, etc.) between 1st Edition and Unlimited print runs of other sets? If the only difference is the stamp (meaning the sheets were identical except for the application of the stamp to the 1st Edition print run) then the advent of a ‘perfect’ counterfeit 1st Edition stamp would seem to pose a potentially lethal threat to the value premium 1st Edition cards demand over Unlimited versions. Is this a topic of concern to WotC collectors and, if not, should it be?
I’d be very interested in knowing peoples’ thoughts.
There is an old thread here about looking at these things under a microscope. From my understanding, it seems that if you’re looking at the card with a jeweler’s loupe, it’s not really possible to replicate the stamp at that level. I don’t feel too concerned, personally. But I’m not an expert.
I’m not saying there’s need for panic, but it’s something that would be concerning to me if I had a giant collection of 1st Edition cards (as I’m sure many on this forum do). And I’m not meaning to sound conspiratorial, but if there was a truly convincing fake 1st Edition stamp we probably wouldn’t be aware of it. While this probably isn’t the case yet, the increase in the price of cards has brought with it a HUGE financial incentive for counterfeiters to develop a convincing stamp. I can’t imagine it would be that difficult, but maybe it is?
Interesting. I don’t think you’re correct that it’s not possible, though. This is one of the main ways to authenticate MTG cards – using a loupe to look at the green dot at the back of the card. On authentic cards, there is (almost) always a small ‘L’-shaped arrangement of red dots within the green dot. This is generally a reliable measure: historically, counterfeiters have not had access to ultra hi-res images of cards and/or haven’t been able to reproduce cards with that level of printing precision. Within the past few years, though, counterfeiters have mostly mastered this and it’s not a reliable test for new fakes. I would think that it would be even easier for counterfeiters to master the 1st Edition stamp, though maybe this isn’t an apt comparison or I’m missing something.
Besides the fact that there’s never been a convincing fake (that we know of admittedly) why even bother putting a fake stamp on a real card? Highly graded Unlimited versions of WOTC cards sell for a ton these days. Doesn’t seem like it would worth ruining a perfectly good item with a shitty fake stamp. You’d be better off getting the real card graded rather than trying to get PSA to grade your fake stamp.
Also, if you want to put a fake stamp on Base Set cards you’d need to put them on Shadowless cards.
You could say the same thing to people that clip Beta MTG cards. People have clipped $1000 Beta cards in an attempt to make them $2000 Alpha cards.
It wouldn’t be worth doing if the stamp was “a shitty fake stamp,” but it would certainly be worthwhile if the stamp were very convincing. If someone could, with little to no risk, make their $500 card a $1000 card, I have a hard time believing that some people wouldn’t do it. Unlimited cards can be very expensive, yes, but there’s still undoubtedly a huge financial incentive at play given the price gap.
EDIT: and yes, I’m aware of that. But the same dynamic is still at play since 1st Edition Base cards are worth appreciably more than Shadowless ones.
If we’re talking about trying to do this with mint condition cards, it would be more profitable to get the real card PSA graded and sell it that way rather than put a fake stamp on it and sell it raw. So then you have to risk the card passing through PSA as well as finding someone to sell it to.
There have been a couple of cases of fake stamps slipping through PSA but it’s extremely rare. Mostly people don’t bother. It’s a lot less risk to produce a fake card from scratch as opposed to potentially ruining a real card that is already extremely valuable.
If the stamp were highly convincing, then I don’t think it would be much of a risk. I agree, it is “a lot less risk to produce a fake card from scratch” – but it’s also much more difficult because of the amount of room for error. There’s so many features of the card you’d have to reproduce perfectly in order for the fake to be convincing. Whereas with a counterfeit stamp it is only a few millimetres in length and just a tiny feature on an otherwise fully authentic card.
If it was so easy to do, surely someone would have done it after all these years. In which case this is already baked into the population split of graded 1st edition and Unlimited WOTC cards. Either way, I’ll rest easy at night.
Hey @zorloth, for higher-end stuff, perhaps its just better to stick with PSA graded if you’re purchasing it. If you get PSA graded cards, especially the ones that were graded much earlier back in time, the risk of getting a counterfeit is lower and the grading makes it a seal of approval from my perspective.
Price-premium wise, its very hard to argue as collectibles typically have price-memory baked into them. 1st edition is even worse, as the value of 1st-edition base is very easily understood. Take ‘Stage error Blastoise’ for example - the pop is low for PSA 9/10s, but the rarity doesn’t correlate to its market value because its hard to tell people why that card is rarer and more valuable than 1st edition Blastoise.
If the price-premium is threatened to the point where the value of an old and rare card is halved, people with stronger hands will just pick all of them up. The worst part is that you now have people who are used to spending heavily on collectibles moving into Pokemon.
To put it simply, there’s a way to tell if a stamp is aftermarket. I don’t disclose the information because if someone knew there would be better fakes. They could still be able to tell it’s fake, but they would hide the tells better.