This is really great math to help get a rough range. I have been doing similar calculations to try and figure out print runs of promo cards.
Your calculations really show just how rare these sets are. Even at the higher end they are still a fraction of what some of the WOTC sets are.
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Yeah, it’s kind of nuts that an English set card could have less than 10k copies printed. And, at most, probably 40k. And then you have to ask how many copies have survived in NM condition up to this point? There are probably somewhere between 1500-5000 copies in PSA 8+ quality condition in the world. Pretty damn limited, that just a couple thousand collectors could absorb the entire supply.
I remember smpratte saying in a video that ‘there will always be another set card.’ And while that’s generally true, I don’t know if that really applies to a card like GS Rayquaza. If the hobby continues to grow (as I hope and anticipate it will), then I could easily see the supply becoming even drier than it currently is. The reality is that no serious collection (except for a WotC-exclusive collection) is really complete without a NM GS Rayquaza. It’s arguably the most important non-WotC set card in the hobby. And I’m saying this as someone who doesn’t own one (yet, because I’m actually in the market for one – one of just a handful of cards I need to finish up every EX-series master set up through EX Emerald*).*
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Would you say that 1-5% method of estimating print size works for most ex sets with known pull rates of gold stars? And what about the sets that don’t have gold stars? Should we just assume the most popular card is the most submitted as well?
The 1-5% estimate is only really going to apply to super popular cards. For most exs, I think it’s pretty safe to say that less than 1% of the copies printed have been PSA-graded. Exceptions might be super popular ones like Charizard or Lugia ex. And it’s not even going to apply to all gold stars in the same way as Rayquaza. Like, compare Rayquaza to GS Latias/Latios: all had the exact same amount of copies printed, yet Rayquaza has had 371 copies submitted and Latias/Latios have each only had 264 and 268, respectively. So all gold stars are not graded equally – those of super popular Pokemon (i.e., Charizard, Rayquaza, Pikachu, etc.) have had a much larger portion of each’s total copies in the world submitted. Taking a set like EX Sandstorm, for instance, you couldn’t apply the 1-5% metric, since there’s not a card in the set that is even remotely as popular as GS Rayquaza.
But you could make very imprecise assumptions like my 1-5% estimate for other cards. I don’t have any real basis for the 1-5% estimate besides that it seems to me unlikely that the percentage of the total copies printed that have been submitted to PSA would fall outside that range. Though it’s conceivably possible that only .25% of all copies of GS Rayquaza have been submitted – it just seems unlikely that it’s that low a proportion. Of course, if it is that low a proportion, that would mean that my 40k estimate of the upper limit of copies would actually be more like 160k. But this by itself seems incredibly unlikely, given the super low sales volume of the card. If there were 160k copies printed, of which ~159k have already been opened, one would expect a much higher sales volume. Instead, only like 15 copies are sold on eBay per month, and there are only 15 active listings. There’s a 0% chance, in my view, that there are 160k copies in existence with a sales volume this low. Based on the sales volume alone, it would be my guess that there were around 10-15k copies printed. This would line up with my 1-5% estimate. But again, this is all conjecture and it’s possible (although very unlikely, in my view) that my estimates are wildly off.
Sorry for the rambling lol – but my point is basically this: if you take a look at the following factors:
- Pull rate of the card in question (i.e., 1/7 boxes for GS Rayquaza, 1/3 boxes for Jolteon ex from Delta Species, etc.)
- PSA pop
- Sales and market volume
You should be pretty easily able to get a sense of print runs. Though this is only one method I use, and I have a method I think is much more precise (which doesn’t look at expensive, highly desirable cards, but instead at the market volume of bulk commons/uncommons that weren’t included in theme decks) to estimate print runs. Based on all of the research I’ve done, it’s clear as day to me the relative sizes of the print runs of EX-series sets. There are a lot of things that people would be surprised at – namely that many exs (and some holos, even) are rarer than some gold stars, when you adjust for print run size.
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If earlier ex series sets had smaller print runs in general, makes me wonder why ruby and sapphire is so cheap and why many ex cards still seem so cheap in comparison to e series holos
@krill, I’m not sure about R&S but sandstorm ex’s are more common than holos
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These are the case for a variety of reasons:
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Ruby Sapphire had a much larger print run than any of the other early EX-series sets (if we are defining ‘early EX-series’ as everything from Ruby to TMTA). The print runs started really started to ramp up with Hidden Legends, but Ruby Sapphire had much larger print run than Sandstorm, Dragon, and especially TMTA.
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The ex pull rate was 6 per box. This is also true of Sandstorm, and Dragon. This is why the exs from these sets are generally much lower priced.
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e-Series holos are, individually, really rare (as far as set cards go, at least). There were 32 different holos in each of the e-Series sets, and you pulled 12 holos per box (I believe closer to 10-11 in Aquapolis/Skyridge because of Crystals, if the Crystals replaced holo pulls, which I’m not 100% sure about). So let’s say you want an Expedition Dragonite holo. On average, you’ll have to open nearly 3 boxes just to get it. Compare that to the Ruby Sapphire exs – there are only 8 different ones. So if you want an Electabuzz ex, you’ll likely only have to open 1 box to get it.
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Subjectively, Ruby Sapphire is a pretty bland set. Lots of Sugimori art and no real theme. Compare that to Aquapolis and Skyridge, or even Sandstorm and Dragon, and you’re left with a relatively undesirable set.
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For Ruby Sapphire, it’s complicated by the fact that every theme deck included a random holo. So there’s a larger supply of holos than the pull rate would suggest. But based on pull rates alone, the holos are MUCH rarer than the exs (individually) – nearly twice as difficult to pull. For Sandstorm, each holo is exactly twice as rare as each ex.
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Oh wow, I didnt know that. That would explain why sandstorm holos seemed oddly expensive when I was buying them.
Ahhh, interesting. That makes sense. Definitely wont deny the cohesion and art appeal is much stronger in the e series. Didn’t realize the pull rates for original ex’s were like that, I always assumed they were rarer than normal holos.
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Yeah, Sandstorm holos are the rarest holos from any of the 16 EX-series sets, bar none. 14 different holos, and you only pull 6 per box. Meaning, it takes opening between 2-3 boxes just to pull a given holo.
Though Armaldo and Cradily are exceptions, though, since they were included in the theme decks. And the prices really reflect that.
@zorloth, It also seems that the earliest printings of EX Ruby Sapphire could have 12 ex cards per box. I had heard of the possibility a few times and then later found a video of someone pulling 12.
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The pull rates for exs were only like that for the first three sets, though. After that, the pull rate was between 2.5 and 3 per box, with the exception of Delta Species and Holon Phantoms, where the pull rate was 1 per box (but those sets each only have 3 different exs). So for every set except for the first three, the holos are much more common than exs. The difference in rarity is especially stark when it comes to TRR, Emerald, and Unseen Forces. Those three sets have the exs that are, individually, the most difficult to pull of any EX-series sets.
I honestly don’t even think the e-Series had better art cohesion/appeal than the EX-series. I think Ruby Sapphire is basically an anomaly, as far as having no theme is concerned (although Emerald is kind of themeless, too). Sets like Delta Species or TRR had unbelievably cohesive/appealing themes, more so even than Aquapolis/Skyridge, IMO.
Really makes me wonder of TPCI’s intentions. Heavily print the first set of the next gen with a new flashy ex style card that have really good pull rates, then the pull rate drops in the subsequent sets. Not sure if it thats intentional or not but if it is that’s really scummy.
Yup, someone mentioned that here recently. Knowing that explained why the pull rate for exs I had logged at about 7.5 per box lol. The 12 ex box offset the average a lot. The real question is how much of the total print run of Ruby Sapphire had the higher ex pull rate? And also if it was only packs directly from booster boxes, or if the early tins/blisters also had the incorrect pull rate.
The delta species and TRR sets do have good cohesion and set appeal which is why theyre fan favorites but for most of the rest of the 15 sets, they really seem like a bunch of random cards put together, at least much more so than aquapolis and skyridge, imo. Maybe its just me, I dunno.
Also interesting that the pull rate seems to more directly correlate to how many ex’s there are in the set which makes sense I suppose as you dont want to pull 3 of the same ex from a box opening.
Oh also, magma vs sapphire has great cohesion. Whole set seems like it’s all out of the same video game.
I can’t say for sure, but since it was nintendo’s very first set and they changed the pull rates in the middle of the print run I am just going to chalk it up to them having no idea what they were doing. I think they found their stride a lot better in the next set ex sandstorm, really good theme and more sensical pull rates.
Yeah, considering it was after wotc was running things on the american side and they had to transition and adjust, that makes sense. Definitely seems like they should have just waited till the next set as changing pull rates mid print run seems to be a bit ethically debatable. Could be solved by just printing the pull rates on the packaging but then again most of us were clueless kids at the time so I don’t think they had much backlash to worry about. Imagine them slashing pull rates in half mid print run nowadays though, the neckbeard backlash would be intense 
Unseen forces is up there with set cohesion. It’s like neo discovery, genesis and revelation all mixed into one set.
I do recall there being some booster boxes from Ruby and Sapphire that had 12 exes or we’re all Halo packs. There’s a video of somebody on YouTube opening up that box.
I’ve opened 4 unseen forces boxes and I got 3 ex’s each time. with the amount of e x is in it and the low pull rate it definitely does make them more valuable.
The EV for ex boxes is so much lower than WOTC counterparts. Sweet that means of boxes are either getting a premium because of how rare they are and potentially the prices of the cards need to come up because of just how rare they are to get individually.
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Ok wow that’s really crazy!
I really like this thread, I’ve learned a lot from the era that I love the most 
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