Cryptocurrency Discussion Thread

Silk Road is an example of popularized marketplace, although was illegal and you could buy a Tesla car with BTC at one point. The current main use case with Crypto for P2P transactions are forms of money laundering or other illegal activities , but it will soon change.

I transact Pokemon cards with BTC every now and then. All it takes is a platform to be built to explode. I also heard rumors of X being an app similar to Chinese WeChat where you can add funds to your account to pay at stores via Cryptocurrency as well as centralized currencies.

AI is a good analogy to crypto as AI was a topic that has been talked about since early 2010s and it didn’t have a “use case” until 2022 when ChatGPT went public and Generative AI blew up and now every company is figuring out how to incorporate and streamline AI into their businesses. Crypto is in this same exact position, where we have all this technology… The blockchain, web3, etc. but we haven’t found a use case that will blow it up, but I certainly believe with time that use-case will happen.

It almost always feels to me that no one ever wants to be the first one to do something, they always want to be apart of the momentum wave after discovery.

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You probably transacted in btc as you owned it?

There are far better tokens for payments.

Imo need to look at the general population. Almost no one buys btc to make a payment of btc.

I have been sent BTC many times even from 2015 when I used to trade in CS:GO as well as sending others BTC for Pokemon cards.

Sure there are, even ones with cheaper gas fees, however that doesn’t stop people from using the most popular coin. The general populace does not care, they focus on the Brand / Spotlight (AKA people buying a leather belt with LV branding compared to a same material leather belt without the branding).

Because people are scared from being unfamiliar with crypto other than reading media headlines saying “BTC is down to $90k today, will it crash to $50k?” or “BTC reached $100,000 will it keep crashing or continue going up”. They see it as some gambling vehicle rather than a form of currency. Do you know how many people before 2021 thought all Pokemon cards were a joke and that they are worthless? Look at what is happening now.

Like I mentioned above, all we need is a platform to be innovated that will change the public view and create a use case. AI is still in the same spot, however to me I use Generative AI on the day-to-day so I am more familiar with AI, but the average person has never typed a single prompt before in ChatGPT. It will take time, maybe even decades for both AI and Crypto to reach their full potential (Maybe not AI, as true AI is the final form).

Another similar Phenomenon was Smart Phones, they were super cool gadgets that had all this technology, but 0 Use Cases that made them better than a normal flip phone. However developers from companies started developing software based on Smart Phones technology (Youtube, Facebook, Snapchat). A new use case was created and Smart Phones started blowing up in popularity and it also enhanced the economy creating a new job field (Application Developer/ Android Developer / IOS Developer).

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Everything you just asserted about btc is objectively wrong, and couldn’t have been a better example of what I was just talking about.

  1. More and more people transact with Bitcoin year-on-year, and more companies are accepting BTC payments. There are more and more methods of speeding-up and simplifying payment transactions.
  2. Its utility is the fact that, despite currently being treated more as a store of value/hedge at present, it’s actually the hardest currency there has ever been; almost every aspect of what makes a currency ‘good’ - Bitcoin has. High fungibility, high portability, durable, highly divisible, non-consumable, secure, easily transactable (and getting easier), scarce (in built mechanisms such as halving events and an overall limit to how many can exist), low-to-no sovereignty and, most importantly, decentralized.
  3. The inherent virtue of BTC being decentralized is something that cannot change; it can’t become more or less decentralized.

Aside from all the above, the main reason Bitcoin and other cryptos with specific utilities like Solana and Ethereum are now a near-inevitability, are because they are one of the tools the world will be able to use to rescue itself from a broken financial system based on flawed, manipulatable currency.

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Trading volume isn’t payments.

Actually the number of btc addresses are declining.

Sure if more people were using it for payments it would be growing?

The companies accepting btc are doing so for people who hold btc to pay for whatever item. Doesn’t mean it’s being used.

There is no actual reason to use btc for a legitimate payment besides already owning the asset.

XRP or any other token would be a better system.

I didn’t equate trading volume with bitcoin transactions, the differences are obvious. Buying bitcoin isn’t a transaction, paying for goods/services using bitcoin is a transaction. And people are doing that, more and more frequently. Here’s a good example of the mainstream uptake in acceptance of payments in bitcoin..

That in itself however is not me making an argument for bitcoin being the best currency to use right now. Any currency relies on universal acceptance; that is the only way currency can function. While Bitcoin objectively has the best aspects of what makes a currency viable, more so than any other currency the world has seen, it currently lacks universal acceptance. A key argument for the adoption of bitcoin is the inevitable future failure of the fiat system. A key reason institutions, governments and individuals are now treating bitcoin as a store of value is because it serves as a hedge against the failings of fiat currencies (read: the dollar) and against the corruption and control mechanisms being deployed by organisations like the WEF. When the time comes for a new, near-infallible, incorruptible currency, whether that’s locally or globally, people will treat bitcoin as the preferred transactable currency.

Additionally if you have the time, here’s a good read in regard to btc versus other digital assets.

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I love that this discussion is happening on e4, tbh.

Josh, re: pt. #3 — I think I’m confused about the nature of Bitcoin not able to become more or less decentralized, in that (from what I think I know) it does depend on the amount of individual nodes that make up the network.

^this is for clarity, not argument, promise!

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Josh has done his homework!

The criticism that there are better tokens for transacting than bitcoin, therefore bitcoin is inferior, rests in a misunderstanding of how currency is adopted. In order for a money to become currency, it must first be established as a store of value. This paper really dives deep into that process that widely adopted money starts as store of value, then becomes currency, then unit of account. It’s a longer form article, but the summary points are helpful at the beginning for a tl;dr.

The monetization of bitcoin is still early in the store of value phase. We wouldn’t see mainstream use as currency until bitcoin is at least 20-30 trillion dollar asset and until USD starts to decay and inflation increases at a more rapid rate (which is guaranteed to happen in a debt-based system). For now bitcoin is still small and USD is still viable as a currency. Bitcoin is currently a 2 trillion dollar asset and still quite volatile. It needs more liquidity and less volatility, which naturally occurs as the asset grows in value as a widely used store of value. By the time bitcoin is big enough to be a viable currency, layer 2 solutions for transaction speed and volume will be far more developed by that point to allow for seamless payments integration into society. We’ve only just started to see the first iteration of a bitcoin economy in El Salvador for example. Bitcoin is still growing and USD still has a lot of runway, so I’d guess we’re still 15-20 years from bitcoin as a widespread currency.

Any crypto claiming to be better than bitcoin because it’s cheaper and faster is thinking out of order. As long as whatever crypto coin you bet on is a worse store of value than bitcoin, smaller in market cap than bitcoin, and has a central authority that can manipulate its monetary properties, good luck beating bitcoin on the path towards monetization as a store of value. If another crypto can’t surpass bitcoin in market cap or hash rate, it won’t beat it as a store of value and therefore it’s long-term viability as a mainstream currency will lose out to bitcoin. Who will want to accept your super fast dog coin for payment if it doesn’t hold value against bitcoin over time?

I am a bitcoin monetary maximalist. Meaning I think bitcoin is the best place to store your wealth, I think of it as a savings vehicle that best counteracts the impact of inflation, as opposed to thinking of it as an investment. However, I do believe some crypto will give us greater utility in our economy. I’m not saying all other crypto is useless, but most are and the few that aren’t will help the tokenization our existing financial system. One example is putting stock ownership on crypto rails to allow more efficient ownership and settlement. In this case, a faster, cheaper coin would be better than bitcoin, but these are specific applied utilities and aren’t really in the same realm of what makes a good money and good store of value like bitcoin.

I don’t know enough about these coins to put any of my wealth in them. Bitcoin is the most reliably decentralized and secure monetary network with programmed, immutable scarcity and I have not seen a convincing argument as to why I should save my wealth in any other coin. Bitcoin is for saving, all other cyrpto is for speculating. Bitcoin is like gold, all other crypto are more like tech stocks. That is how I look at this. There is no definitive winner in the crypto space to provide the type of utility crypto may offer, so I have no confidence to speculate in any of them. However, there is a clear winner as a global, secure store of value asset and that is bitcoin.

I spend a lot of time in a bitcoin bubble, I consume a lot of bitcoin content daily and it’s always strange to see people thinking bitcoin will die out. I think the media has done a good job FUDing bitcoin over the years that most people write it off completely, but let me recap why this is one of the most bullish times in bitcoin’s history, as I don’t think most people are aware of what’s happening:

  • The first US bitcoin ETFs launched 1 year ago and IBIT is the fasted growing ETF of any asset class in history.
  • The incoming US president has stated that he will create a Strategic bitcoin stockpile, converting our existing held bitcoin (seized over the years) into a treasury balance sheet asset.
  • There is legislation being introduced by Senator Lummis to approve purchasing of up to 1 million bitcoin over the next 5 years. This is less likely to pass, but even just the US holding the current bitcoin as a reserve asset is huge when you are talking about the government of the world’s largest economy cozying up to bitcoin. Especially when you consider how hostile the US govt. has been towards bitcoin in the past.
  • The incoming administration is heavily pro-bitcoin and crypto, with people like Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary, a new pro-crypto SEC chair Paul Atkins, and Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary. They also have committed to positive crypto regulation and are coming in with a crypto advisory council. They also all hold bitcoin. Why wouldn’t they enact policies that help bitcoin?
    *Putin said in a recent talk that no one can stop bitcoin. Coming from him, you know out of anyone in the world he has probably tried the most to stop or coopt bitcoin, so saying it can’t be stopped is a crazy admission of bitcoin’s security against nation-state level attack.
  • Jerome Powell (Fed chairman) recognizing bitcoin as a digital gold
  • There are multiple states considering or working on a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve themselves

If there is ever a time to be bearish on bitcoin, this is not it. I’ve only been paying close attention to the space for 4-5 years and less closely for 10 years and this is the most bullish momentum I’ve ever seen. All the headwinds have become tailwinds. I don’t know how to emphasize enough that the US becoming friendly with bitcoin is absolutely insane considering their stance over the past several years.
If they signal they will hold their bitcoin, bitcoin will explode upward. If the US starts acquiring bitcoin, we are going to $1 million per coin nearly overnight. Recognize that if the US starts doing this, every other single nation or government will do the same. It will be a global game theory in play and there are only 21 million coins. There are 58 million millionaires in world, meaning not every millionaire can hold even one coin. The amount is even less when you consider lost coins and all the coins already held that won’t ever be sold, companies like MSTR who already hold 450,000 bitcoin, over 2% of the possible supply.

I try focus on education and not to sound like a crypto bro when I talk about bitcoin, but the writing is just so clearly on the wall and bitcoin is a game where the earlier you figure it out the better off you are.

There is an infinite amount of monetary creation in our system. This is evidenced by the USD losing most of it’s purchasing power over the least several decades. Inflation is an inevitability in a fiat, debt-based monetary system. Hard assets are the best way to protect your purchasing power against inflation and bitcoin is the hardest, most liquid asset for this purpose. It also tracks global liquidity the best and is essentially a liquidity sponge. Infinite money creation and only 21 million bitcoins (∞/21 million) means price can only go one direction over time. Up and to the right. The only way this wouldn’t happen is if adoption decreases, but global adoption and government interest is just starting and gaining momentum and every indicator shows bitcoin is growing, including market cap/price.

I try ot never outright saying you should buy bitcoin, but just this time I will say that sometimes it’s better to get some skin in the game to motivate you to start learning about it when otherwise it’s easy to write-it off if you have none.

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I don’t know too much about the software technicalities of BTC so not much use to generate an analogy on that front, but think of it this way;

Certain individual aspects of bitcoin might be considered to be “more or less centralizable”; things like actual ownership or the mining process, but even then, only to a limited, uncontrolled degree. But these examples aren’t what we mean by decentralisation of the currency itself.

There’ll be better and more accurate explanations than this, but I’m sat on the sofa after work and I’m tired so this is the best I’ve got for now: Bitcoin being decentralised simply means that no single entity controls the currency itself or the ledger it is transacted on (the blockchain). The blockchain network is controlled collectively by all the people who use their computing power to sustain it (nodes - I think? Someone can maybe elaborate on that). Unlike a bank ledger and the value of the dollar which a bank (and the government, if they choose) have full oversight and control of. Governments have historically destroyed the value of their currencies through corruption and poor decision making which has led to things like hyperinflation (eg Venezuela) whereby the government will print their currency into oblivion in order to pay for things, ie, debts and wars. This can’t happen with bitcoin because of all the reasons stated above that make it a near perfect currency. For example, it can’t be artificially inflated because nobody controls the supply (yes, more bitcoin can be mined but this scales down over time via halvings) and the supply is ultimately finite.

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Brb grabbing a cuppa tea for this one :coffee:

Josh has been doing his homework

LOL you know it, I grabbed some books since the last conversation in here! :nerd_face:

Edit, now read, and S tier post as usual.

decay of debt based systems is inevitable

Highlight, bold and underline this one. I’m halfway through Broken Money just now and holy crap it’s eye opening! The underlying risk with modern fractional reserve banking is absolutely nuts.

the earlier you figure it out the better off you are.

I hate agreeing so hard with this because it can sound so crypto-bro-ish, but it couldn’t be truer.

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For all the hate it often gets, people often miss dogecoin had real utility back in the early days(before it was given a spotlight on twitter). Easiest to use to transfer, and cheapest. Withdrawing from the sketchy early exchanges would be like, 0.01 btc, 0.1 eth, or… 100 doge(literal pennies compared to a few bucks for the first two).

Needless to say it was the transfer currency of choice for me and a lot of my peers. But I haven’t held doge in years. Ofc nowadays there’s stuff with way lower fees and stablecoins to get in and out with much cheaper.

AVAX was pretty good to me over the previous cycle, unfortunate it only returned to barely half its previous ATH. Coulda done better elsewhere but also dumped that a bit ago for some profit and bought more pokemon stuff heh(with SSP this turned out pretty well). When things come down again I’ll be looking to accumulate something new, not sure what yet(and a bit of the usuals. I usually stack more eth than btc). Open to any suggestions to look into =)

Idk how I feel about the whole currency thing. I think FTX shook my confidence it will ever be ‘decentralized’ in the way it was initially envisioned. I’ve paid for stuff with crypto, but few and far btwn. Way back when with doge, and a few times cuz it was cheaper to use. That’s about it. Prob woulda used my CC if that was an option and same price.

I just find it incredible that people would go so in-depth on this and yet ignore or discount the very real threat of climate change or rather global warming.

Obviously I could say this about this hobby itself, but it still is a hobby, a distraction from everyday life.

But since you have clearly put a lot of time and research in, I find it fascinating that there are so many people talking about investing for the future etc. when there is an ever increasing chance that within our lifetimes, that will no longer look like anything that has ever existed. And anything and everything that is reliant on technology will be worthless.

We have just passed 1.5*C for the first time, and not by a small amount either since every degree matters. The hottest 10 years have all been in the last decade. Cryptocurrency is not future proof at all - and neither is fiat obviously.

I’m only on here for the distraction but sometimes it is impossible to stop reality leaking in with these kinds of topics.

I haven’t ignored anything. I’ve studied bitcoin’s energy use and it continues to move towards renewables over time. The thing about a decentralized system is anyone anywhere can use whatever energy they have available to join the network and start mining. So people blame bitcoin, but it’s really the individual miners using coal and dirty energy that should be to blame, not bitcoin itself. I don’t mean that in some high-brow, beat-around-the-bush kind of way, I mean truly what can we even do about it by blaming the bitcoin protocol? The struggle with criticizing bitcoin for its energy use is, who are you going to complain to? The CEO? There is no central authority. Bitcoin is a network of global, voluntary participation. I understand the sentiment of being averse to bitcoin due to its energy use, but bitcoin is going to keep hashing along whether any of us like it or not. That’s the power of a censorship resistant, decentralized network. The other thing to consider is that what makes bitcoin so decentralized and secure is its energy usage. Energy demand is what ensures no one can co-opt the network.

Most people who denounce bitcoin due to energy use greatly misunderstand or misconstrue it relative to the value bitcoin provides. Part of this depends on if you think bitcoin has value. If you think it’s worthless, then it probably looks wasteful. If you see it like I do, as the future global settlement network and the primary tool that every single person, company, and country on the planet can use to protect against inflation and deterioration of purchasing power, then the fact that it uses .2%-.5% of global energy is a necessary trade-off when you consider the value and financial protection that it provides to society.

Many people also misconstrue bitcoin’s current energy sources. Bitcoin currently gets more than half of its energy from renewables and the rest from fossil fuels, with renewables continuing to grow to a larger % over time. There is also a concerted effort across the mining industry, at least in the west, to focus on implementing more renewable sources for bitcoin.

Bitcoin will also help accelerate renewable energy technology and growth. I talked about this above in a prior post that Bitcoin enhances load flexibility for renewables and is already being used in wind and solar farms in many jurisdictions. Bitcoin mining helps stabilize the energy grid by flexibly adjusting energy use based on demand. It does this by using excess renewable energy when it’s abundant and turning off mining operations when energy supplies are low. Examples from Texas, Iceland, and Canada show that integrating renewable energy in Bitcoin mining can reduce costs, lower carbon footprints, and enhance grid stability.

I think overall the criticisms of bitcoin’s energy use are not without merit. It’s something that should be carefully considered as the network grows. The good news is, most of the leading mining companies in the space are already on that path towards greater bitcoin-renewable energy integration.. Again, I completely emphasize with the resentment as we slow-dance into environmental catastrophe, but how many other industries contribute far more of a carbon footprint and provide less value to society? The reason Bitcoin is such an easy target for energy FUD is that its value proposition is misunderstood.

For a more in-depth discussion about Bitcoin’s Energy FUD, Lyn Alden has another excellent long-form article on this topic.

From her paper:

Since the world uses over 176,000 TWh of energy per year, that means that the entire Bitcoin network, at its peak consumption level, uses less than 0.1% (as of 2022) of the world’s energy consumption. That’s for a network with 100+ million estimated users worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Other estimates vary slightly but they arrive at similar numbers overall.

Research Summary

Overall, the main takeaways from this long report are as follows:

-Bitcoin provides a service that people can use to store and transfer value. So far, the market of millions of participants has decided that this network has value, and like anything of value, it consumes energy.

-Bitcoin mining uses less than 0.1% of global energy (as of 2022, and by design cannot use more energy than the utility it is providing to users.

-A sizable chunk of the energy that is used by Bitcoin, is otherwise stranded and wasted energy. This is because bitcoin miners have the unique capability to go to remote locations and deal with inconsistent power that other consumers can’t make use of, as long as it’s cheap.

-The network continues to be more energy efficient each year due to pre-programmed declining block subsidies (structural disinflation). Miners must find cheaper and cheaper sources of energy, which tends to be stranded renewable energy, to remain profitable over time. Plus, additional layers like the Lightning Network dramatically expand its per-transaction energy efficiency even further as they are built-out and become increasingly operable. Like any functional financial system, Bitcoin uses a layered scaling approach.

-Blockchains that use other consensus models with lower energy requirements, like proof-of-stake,i.e. Etheruem, make trade-offs to do so. There is no free lunch, and these other forms of consensus are not “better” than Bitcoin’s proof-of-work model, since they have more attack surfaces, a lack of unforgeable costliness, and greater risks of centralization.

For those reasons, whether Bitcoin continues to be successful or fails in terms of broader adoption, there’s no risk of the network using too much energy in the grand scheme of things. By any metric, it’s a rounding error as far as global consumption energy is concerned, with a sizable chunk of its energy usage consisting of sustainable or otherwise wasted energy.

People focusing heavily on the environmental “E” side of ESG as it relates to Bitcoin often overlook the “SG” component- social and governance. At the end of the day, I consider Bitcoin to be one of the most ESG assets around, just not in the corporate-sanitized conception that the term ESG is often used in.

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I appreciate your educated and thorough response.

My post wasn’t actually directed solely at bitcoin but more of how people, whether appropriately researched like yourself or not, put so much effort and education into topics like these when there is an ever increasing chance that it’s all irrelevant because nothing is fundamentally changing about modern society’s consumption of resources.

It’s like talking about the interior design of a building whose foundations are about to give way.

So to me it’s interesting how people are so deliberate about planning, whether it is crypto, or more traditional investments, or even things like retirement or children and yet discount the huge elephant in the world that is global warming that will affect everything.

It’s a hard topic to talk about because the longer no discussion is had, the longer no action will be done but nobody wants to talk about it because it is depressing and there are no easy solutions. Or rather there are solutions that no one wants to hear because it affects them now and short term pain always trumps long term disaster.

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Ah I think I misunderstood your post as a criticism of bitcoin’s energy use.

Understanding what you mean now, my response would be that we shouldn’t ever let ourselves be defeated over a future that hasn’t come yet. As Aragorn would say, “there is always hope”. Realistically, it’s going to be a slow deterioration over many decades and there are still things we can do to reduce the impact even if we can’t totally avoid future problems at this point.

Every generation thinks it’s the end of the world, but then life keeps going on. We need to keep innovating and planning long term because that is what will help transform our systems enough and deviate from the current path and at least reduce the future impact. Bitcoin is an example of long time-horizon idea that will be a major factor in accelerating renewable energy growth and help with this process.

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pizza fire

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I can’t add anything to the environmental footprint side that Prof. Teraz hasn’t already wonderfully articulated, and not to debate whether climate change is or isn’t going to be a significant problem on any specific timescale, but I think this is a dangerously defeatist attitude to have, not just about climate change but for life in general. If you expanded the argument out, you could say: ‘what’s the point in working hard towards a more prosperous life when it’s finite and we all die anyway?’. Like Frank Sinatra says at the end of That’s Life, the alternative is to just simply curl up in a ball and die.

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Xrp now outperforming BTC on 3 and 5 year timeframes.

Whilst BTC Wallet addresses decreasing yoy.

Utility and real problem solving tokens over anything else.

K, now do the all time chart. Some Alt coins have always outperformed BTC during bull markets, but then crash harder too. The test is what XRP and alts will do during a bear market compared to bitcoin. XRP crashed and remained totally flat after the last bull in 2021.

Alts are for speculating short term if that’s your appetite, and Bitcoin is for saving long term (5-10+ years). Alt coins have smaller market caps so they have more drastic volatility. So you make a lot of money on them if you trade at the right time, but it’s not suitable as a long term reserve asset for companies and countries or as a savings vehicle for individuals. This is not just because of price volatility and lower liquidity, but because alts like XRP have centralized aspects compared to bitcoin and therefore have counterparty risk. You saw what a legal case against Ripple did to suppress the price the past couple years. When you have a body of influence in an alt like Ripple for XRP, you have counterparty risk.

It’s fine if you have certain alts you like better than bitcoin, but to suggest that Bitcoin is in decline with all the bullish tailwinds I described above, that’s just ignorant. It’s not XRP that nation states are talking about stockpiling, it’s bitcoin.

Alt coins follow the momentum of bitcoin, so I’ve never understood the need by crypto folks to bash bitcoin. XRP wouldn’t be moving up as much as it has if bitcoin hadn’t done so already.

Bitcoin is closer in on the risk curve than any other alt including XRP. If you want to go further out on the risk curve and bet on alts you absolutely may get a better reward, but it is more volatile and risky because you can just as easily get wrecked.

Alts aren’t competing with Bitcoin as ETH and XRP armies try to argue. Bitcoin is a decentralized, digital, secure global reserve asset. It does at least one thing well, which is gives you security and control over your wealth via a bearer instrument with zero counterparty risk.

Alts are not fighting to be a global reserve asset. They are fighting to be the most used for utility. XRP is competing with other alts and companies like PayPal and interbank settlement networks, it’s not competing with bitcoin.

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I love how bullish you are teraz and think you’re quite spot on with all of it.

My only thought, which I’m not confident I can be as specific or in depth as you, is essentially a belief that there won’t be only one chain to win out, but rather, multiple chains will have their respective place and use case. It feels as though the more interoperability becomes more efficient and secure through (CCIP / Bridges / etc), the market participants will be able to choose what they prioritize the most from their transaction: Decentralization, Security, Speed, Privacy, approachable UI, etc.

I guess, what I’m saying, is I believe the future will be multichain. This does not at all takeaway from what you’ve said about Bitcoin!

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