unfortunately i think you’re right. true travesty as im willing to bet a simple estimated return break down would show the box is way more valuable then the estimated return of the card potential, even if you favorably applied psa 10 grade prices.
i wish those people that participate in the box break would come to their senses. only 1 party is guaranteed to make money, and it aint anyone who bought a pack.
supply is a funny thing. no one is ever going to know how many boxes exist still, or how many are even part of the currently available market. nostalgia, desire and scarcity is probably going to keep these boxes in a position where only a doomsday scenario might crater prices in general. there may be a deal here or there from time to time if someone recently overreached with money they really couldn’t afford to spend, but again, supply may not be enough to keep a box from selling instantly at even a slight discount.
quick edit: we’re still learning what happens when prices reach alpha levels of MTG. i dont know much about magic, but rudy has talked a few times about falling prices for early sets. keep in mind, some of those card prices still greatly dwarf pokemon, and smguy has talked at length about buyer pool. if there’s still a big enough intersection of willing and capable buyers, you’d still probably have more demand than supply and prices would likely stay or go up. but one can hope. at this point, the only way anyone without a set of boxes that really wants one is getting it, is doomsday scenario, lottery, major promotion or inheritance.
tl;dr prices probably wont go down much unless there’s a doomsday scenario like a depression, and large scale abandonment of personal belongings for necessity.
I just lost over 500 dollars in fees selling a booster box with the buyer taking advantage of the not as described feature, my box was not listed as mint it was lised as used and to view photos. Buyer claimed dents in box not in picture, I pointed out dents in original posting and buyer then claimed dents don’t matter it was the tightest of the wrapper. I thought ebay would view photos to compare but they said they are not in the business to prove who was right only to make sure the return is handle correctly, so I lost my case and now have to pay ebay fees and paypal fees. Def dont want to sell the remaining booster boxes I have on ebay after that sour taste. Good luck in finding what your looking for.
They said because buyer opened a case that was esclated in buyers favor I would be responsible for all fees. They said it was in their terms of service. When buyer open not as described case, i opened a case against buyer that he was abusing policy, I thought I would win my case and on the final date of return ebay favored buyer case. I let ebay know if i had known they don’t view photos i would of tired to work out a partial refund instead they didn’t care. This is the email ebay sent in regard to having to pay for fees
"Hello Cruz,
Thank you for contacting us with your concern. Thank you for reporting the buyer for abusing eBay policies. I am sorry the case did not go according to what you expected. EBay does expect for you to take care of the customer and resolve the case satisfactorily before we have to make the decision for you. If you do not provide a shipping label during the expected time we will do it for you if the item qualifies for it. The same thing goes regarding the refund, if it is not issued withing the allotted time frame, eBay will return that money to the buyer retrieving it from your funding source. If you do it without us having to force it, your get the final value fee waived, but if we have to take action we keep that fee. All that information is in your seller agreement that you have to agree to before being able to start selling on eBay. So once again we appreciate you taking care of your buyers, and by opening a case against the buyer we will proceed to investigate them. If we find any user to be abusing out policies we will take action against them up to and including permanent suspension from eBay if we deem that necessary to protect our members.
*Update it appears Ebay credited the fees when I check my March statement, I wonder why the first employee told me I would be responsible for fees and each employee who responsed to my emails stated I would be charged fees. I really hope ebay didn’t mess up and will try and charge me later. Sure caused me a ton of stress during this crisis.