At this point the word “bubble” is in a bubble.
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Why would there suddenly more availability when psa reopens completely? It´s not like the population of WOTC cards has massively increased in the last two years. When they reopen it will take months/years to see a (significant) supply increase.
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by the way we are talking about PSA being down for maybe 45 days at most? It’ll be interesting to see how 45 days of product “explodes” into the market. being facetious… no doubt it’s a factor but it’s not like it’s been closed for years. and it’s not like a frenzy of sealed WOTC product has been opened in the last 45 days that is coming to flood the market. I would think the gem mint stuff that’s been sitting around has mostly been graded. Someone here made the point about 8s and 9s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that stuff coming in more since it’s worth it to grade on some cards where it was perhaps marginal in the past
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I think there is some truth to the “bubble” concept right now . . . in the sense that we are seeing a greater level of scarcity than ever before (which is likely also having a psychological affect on buyers, encouraging them to buy more aggressively). I’m sure there are many people in the hobby (myself included), who are sitting on a large supply of ungraded 1st Edition WOTC cards, who have never bothered grading them due to slight flaws reducing their likelihood of earning 10’s (off-center, dot of edgewear, print-line).
Now that 9’s and 8’s are developing a significant profit margin, we will likely see mass submissions to PSA of NM-MINT cards, many earning 8’s, 9’s, and even some 10’s. Of course, with PSA’s backlog, it will likely be months (perhaps a year) for PSA to catch-up and a new supply of graded cards to enter the market. In the meantime, prices may continue growing, but I’m confident a correction is coming. Of course, I could be wrong; it wouldn’t be the first time.
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“Free” stimulus money for people who are still working? LOL. Under normal circumstances you’d be a chump to buy in this environment, but considering there’s very little risk spending money you wouldn’t have had anyway, you may be a chump not to buy something expensive right now.
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Who knows. I’m still selling, I’m still buying, and that’s all you can really do.
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The only bubble that’s going to burst is the John Travolta bubble boy bubble I’m going to bust out of as soon as I can re-book about four or five grand on vacations this next year. That’s where my stimulus money is going. Trying right now just to re-coup the flights I’m having to cancel and didn’t purchase insurance for.
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Honestly we have already seen this before. Not to this grand of an extent but ill give you an example…
Psa 10 1st ed shadowless alakazazm
2017 - $2800-3500 (Pokemon go market affect)
2018 - $1600-2000 (after Pokemon go affect)
2019 - $2000-$2400
2020 - $3675 pwcc auction 3/30/20
I have always kept personal notes on market prices thru the years and look 2017 was pretty much peak price after Pokemon go brought a lot of people back into the hobby then it went down for about 2 years and now its right back up again to peak prices. Granted today there are more people in this hobby and less supply out there but I would bet that yes certain prices will go back down. Not to low 2018 prices but they will be a bit of a dip but guess what next time another spike happens the previous high will be overtaken again. BTW this Trent is very similar on almost every 1st base holo I have recored. And lets not forget the crazy spike of shadowless cards back in late 2017. Yeah we saw shadowless cards take a huge dip after that.
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As peeps above have said, were gonna see a pop increase for 8s and 9s. Its now profitable to grade them. There will be a reaction of an increase supply once PSA opens. Prices as they are may hold, probs decrease a bit, but they won’t see growth for 2 years. Pretty much what happened to 1st edition base in 2017 to now.
Look at the pop reports for neo revelation/neo destiny 1st edition and compare them to base. There’s 18 1st edition dark gengars in a psa 8 and 4 graded below that. 1st Ed. Base Nidoking has 137 in PSA 7 alone. Nobody grades near mint outside of base. Likely the hobby is growing to the point will that will change. Kinda exciting in a way.
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Yes. Come back in 2 years and pichu 1st 9 will likely be <$400 in my opinion.
Hmm… In a way, would this increase the prices of 10’s? By that I mean, it would show that 10’s are harder to grade than maybe people are previously assuming due to the proportion of 10’s to total cards graded decreasing once more 8’s & 9’s hit the pop report. I know most 10’s already carry a hefty premium… Just didn’t know if this would sway things.
People here are saying that there is a huge amount of raw cards that can crash the price. The problem with this is that PSA increased their grading standards making it much harder to get a 10, 9, 8 and so on. The 10 grade cards basically need to be perfectly flawless now whereas in the past maybe one tiny imperfection might slide past and still get a 10. It was noticeable in my last PSA submission. I was shocked how many more 7s and 8s I was getting and I only submit cards that have a very good chance of 9 or 10.
But overall, IMO, there are too many variables at play to really predict the prices. People could be flocking to “tangible” assets because of the stock market crash. Look at what is going on in the gold market. A few weeks ago the biggest retail gold sellers completely ran out of inventory, even in heavily minted coins. Same thing could be happening for collectible markets. People are getting burned in the stock market so going to tangible assets like collectibles. You could also have more people staying at home, adults looking at their childhood collection and coming back into the hobby. TCAgaming was on here a week or two ago saying he had his “best sales day” ever. That’s a sign that demand is high even if prices are high.
Supply isn’t the only factor to look at. Price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. Price could go up even if supply is increasing.
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PSA has not increased their grading standards. Please stop.
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ZandGEmporium tested it and proved they did. I noticed it too with my submission as well. Look at the video and decide for yourself:
Oh god not more ZandG clickbait trash. I’m sorry but he has no idea what he’s talking about. Here are threads where people with actual hobby experience say it’s all wrong.
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Man I should throw up more controversial videos more often - I didn’t realize that had 10k views now lol. Maybe I should make one about how raffles are the future.
Seriously though, I of course needed more data - this was small sample size. Did make a good title though.
PSA has this hobby by the throat in terms of creating value, so most collectors won’t stop no matter if their grading standards are easier, harsher, or stay exactly the same - so unless someone is going to make a change, no real point in making the argument for either side.
I sold a mint snorlax and vaporeon 1st edition for like $75 each at auction each. I send it in to PSA, they are probably 9s and my value goes up 3X, 4X, 5X on each card. You can be a PSA complainer (as a lot of people are on here) or a PSA apologist (as a lot of people are on here), truth is - if you want value, you have to dance with the devil.
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Of course those with hobby experience and have a huge hoard of 2xxxx’s they need to sell will tell you there’s no difference. Theres literally no difference between a figurehead in the cryptocurrency market pumping up a coin all so they can dump on the market and the figureheads who have hoards of 2 certs saying they’re just as valuable as 4 certs.
You’re argument concerning 1 vs. 2 certs and 0 vs. 1 certs is pretty strong however.
I just bought a PSA 9 Flashfire FA Charizard for 70$ with a 4xxx cert, a PSA 10 is up for auction with a 2xxxx cert and there is so much whitening on the back that it’s WORSE quality than the 9 I bought. The 2xxx would easily be an 7/8 in comparison to the 9 I have.
Yes. We don’t know for sure with factual data, however, we are allowed to question the motivations behind the naysayers and include that into the decision making as well. It doesn’t prove anything either way, but you have to admit that the naysayers have a vested interest in dispelling this. This is a market with big fish and smaller fish and the spread of disinformation is in every market.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.
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@jcincy101, I wouldn’t phrase things as “psa complainers vs apologists”. That limits reasonability.
The larger issue is everyone is paying for a third party opinion, which is necessary, but it inherently won’t be perfect. In our overly entitled world/hobby, people expect God tier quality but want to pay less than $10. That isn’t being an apologist, its being realistic.
The easiest thing to do in 2020 is state an opinion online. Especially cynical ones. If opinions were cards, they would be more saturated than energies. The real value is experience, which psa has, more than 90% of the people complaining. Therefore the actual issues at psa (misunderstanding value, not grading certain cards) gets lost in the fog. Also most people complaining won’t pay for better quality.
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEPJNrWoOC0
Overlooks two printlines and proceeds to talk about the value in PSA 10 condition.
Mistakes happen, especially when submitting routinely or during the making of a video when you don’t spend 2 minutes with every card.
Comments under the candle thumbnail video talked about how they expected a 9 or a 10 and recieved a 6… quite likely they overlooked a tiny crease, isn’t it? What you needed to actually see a significant change is more quantity and the people that have that voiced their observation already.
I like your videos @jcincy101 , just commenting in this context. ^^