My first three Base Set pulls from these virtual packs were Pokémon Breeder, Dugtrio, and Super Scoop Up…
Fortunately I was pretty lucky as a kid. The first three packs I opened back then all contained Holos (Base Chansey, Jungle Jolteon, Jungle Snorlax). Sometimes I wonder where my luck has gone these days… Sprained my ankle this Monday and still have trouble walking, and today the internet was out for a few hours.
My brother and law once said that everyone is born with full bag of luck and an empty bag of experience and we gotta hope we fill the former before we run out of the latter.
May your experience carry you from here on, my friend.
I have actually been working on a similar project, trying to find pull rates for old sets by watching box opening videos on youtube and noting what came in the rare slot. Particularly for the ex era, some valuable footage that may be worth preserving - I have not gotten around to trying to download anything yet though. Plan to make a thread on this topic once I have processed the information properly with confidence intervals, but a lot of interesting results which I thought I could throw in here:
-224 complete box openings from Base Set to Secret Wonders looked at so far (only boxes, does not include sets of 36 loose packs).
-80% of boxes contained exactly 12 holos or better, the rest had either fewer or more - between 10 (6 boxes) and 25 (1 box).
-Shining Pokemon from Neo Revelation seem to have same rarity as Holos, for Neo Destiny they are generally three per box. In multiple boxes (3 of 8) however, there were some packs with both a holo and a shining, pulling the average up to about 3.5 per box.
-Crystal types seem to have same rarity as other holos.
-Pokemon ex had the following pull rates: 6 per box for Ruby and Sapphire, Sandstorm and Dragon (discounting an insane Ruby and Sapphire error box with 25 hits), i.e. Pokemon ex were actually more common than holos. For the other sets mostly about 3 per box, with the exceptions being FireRed and LeafGreen (4), Legend Maker (2) and Delta Species and Holon Phantoms (both 1).
-For Gold stars, not enough data to estimate rarities by set, but all in all 25 Gold Stars out of 72 boxes from the sets that contained Gold Stars (though one Power Keeper Box had 4 Gold Stars). Makes an overall average of around 1 in every 3 boxes, possibly a bit more in the later sets and fewer in Team Rocket Returns (1/9 in sample) and Deoxys (0/3). Gold Stars seem to come in place of a Pokemon ex for the earlier sets, in place of a holo for the later ones (particularly those with very few Pokemon ex).
-For Level X, not enough information yet. Diamond and Pearl seems to guarantee 1 per box, Mysterious Treasures and Secret Wonders seem more inconsistent.
-Starting with Gym Heroes, WOTC and later Nintendo tried to include full set of non-holo rares in the box (though this failed very often).
-From Expedition to Dragon, Holo (or Crystal/Pokemon ex) came in place of a common, with a non-holo rare in every pack. With the early ex era sets having quite few non-holo rares, that meens the cards were actually quite easy to get.
-Common pulls from base set correspond to the uncut sheet of which images exist, they come in sequence in a pack (thus, “God Pack” with all three starters not possible). Some commons (including the trainers) appear a bit less often on the sheet and are thus a bit rarer.
-Was able to reconstruct the commons/uncommons sheet used for Legendary Collection.
-Did not look at reverses much and did not note them down, but it appears the boxes were organized so as to minimize duplicates.
As mentioned above, plan on making a thread at some point with more detailed information.
Feel free to use these rough estimates on your simulator!
My statistics is a bit rusty. For the Gold Stars, assuming a binomial distribution with p = probability of gold star in box and q = 1-p, and n being 72 (number of boxes), the 90% confidence interval would be within 2 sigma of the mean, with sigma being square root of the variance n*p*q.
If we assume a Gold Star in every third pack, the result (25 Gold Stars) is well within 90% confidence interval.
For the assumption of a Gold star in evey other pack, 90% confidence interval would be between 28 and 44 Gold Stars. This hypothesis is thus unlikely.
I don’t think there are that many more videos out there I missed for these sets. I avoided searching for keywords like “Gold Star Pull” as that would bias the sample.
But of course the last set I actually collected was Team Rocket (which should tell you how ancient I am…), so I may have gotten some stuff wrong.
Always super happy to hear back about results and accuracy, though.
I have noticed, however, that large sample sizes (like hundreds of boxes worth of boosters per set) lead to more accurate feeling results. It’s important to note that each person has their own subjective feeling of what accurate means and without proprietary knowledge of card distribution, then folks like us just have to do the best we can with the information available!
(Base Chansey, Jungle Jolteon, Jungle Snorlax). Sometimes I wonder where my luck has gone these days… 
Sprained my ankle this Monday and still have trouble walking, and today the internet was out for a few hours. 
