3x the price in a single month... How?

[pokehut1]

I just pay asking price(in reason) for a card for 2 reasons:
-Resets the bar for the market so you’re the new floor (Public sales)
-In 2 weeks you’ll end up paying more anyway

[azulryu]

@pokehut1

I just pay asking price(in reason) for a card for 2 reasons:
-Resets the bar for the market so you’re the new floor (Public sales)
-In 2 weeks you’ll end up paying more anyway

I just hope for a reasonable buy it now price at this point. I was saving money to purchase a New Year Present card, but my 1st Edition Shining Gyarados has always bothered me for years so I figured if a New Year Present didn’t pop up, I could at least replace that one for my primary collection.

Would there be any reason to suspect a dip in prices after such a hike? I’m not familiar with trends when it comes to higher-priced items.

[pokehut1]

@azulryu

@pokehut1

I just pay asking price(in reason) for a card for 2 reasons:
-Resets the bar for the market so you’re the new floor (Public sales)
-In 2 weeks you’ll end up paying more anyway

I just hope for a reasonable buy it now price at this point. I was saving money to purchase a New Year Present card, but my 1st Edition Shining Gyarados has always bothered me for years so I figured if a New Year Present didn’t pop up, I could at least replace that one for my primary collection.

Would there be any reason to suspect a dip in prices after such a hike? I’m not familiar with trends when it comes to higher-priced items.

Nobody knows, but as long as you enjoy the card, you’ll hold onto the card for longer than the dip lasts.

[lamplamp]

@azulryu Here’s the questions I would ask myself when I’m considering if the price of a card will dip in the future:

1. Is there a large quantity of sealed product that would be profitable to open in order to increase the supply of the card in the market? In this case I’d say no, the expected value of opening a 1st Ed Neo Rev box is lower than the current price of boxes, so most collectors will keep their boxes sealed.

2. If supply is remaining the same, how rare is the card I’m searching for? According to the PSA Pop report, there are 281 PSA 9’s as of today which interestingly enough is the second highest holo pop in the set behind Shining Magikarp. Assuming the pop report is accurate, this is the pool you’re working with.

3. How popular is the Pokemon itself? I’d argue that Gyarados is one of the more popular Pokemon and Shining cards are a high end card category. Shining Gyarados checks both of those boxes and will naturally have higher than average price increases.

Given the above factors, I’m sure to some degree the current higher price will draw a few collectors to sell their cards at the new higher price which theoretically could cause a small retraction. Overall I would expect the high prices to remain probably 90% or more of what they are today

[kpod]

@celestialdragon

I found a UK seller doing mass auctions weekly.
They had a 1st edition shining magikarp, and had sold a similar one the previous week using the same photos.
So i figured I would snipe this one with an extra $50… I was beaten by $100.

That guy is notorious for selling cards as “mint” that in reality are PSA 8 at best, his pictures are deceiving. There were some posts about that in the Giant Auction Thread.

[fresco]

@cinnaminhbun

I really don’t understand auctions for raw cards sometimes. Often they go way above PSA 8 price and often a good margin above PSA 9 price. But the cards in question I always feel are a solid 8 candidate… and not much more. But then again we all know how quickly good BIN deals get sniped, so I guess this is one of the remaining outlets.

It’s kinda irrational tbh. It’s expecting to get a shot at a psa 10, you’re basically overpaying for the ultimate gamble of getting a psa 10 which is not a guaranteed instead of just paying more for something that is a solid 8-9.

[azulryu]

@lamplamp

@azulryu Here’s the questions I would ask myself when I’m considering if the price of a card will dip in the future:

1. Is there a large quantity of sealed product that would be profitable to open in order to increase the supply of the card in the market? In this case I’d say no, the expected value of opening a 1st Ed Neo Rev box is lower than the current price of boxes, so most collectors will keep their boxes sealed.

2. If supply is remaining the same, how rare is the card I’m searching for? According to the PSA Pop report, there are 281 PSA 9’s as of today which interestingly enough is the second highest holo pop in the set behind Shining Magikarp. Assuming the pop report is accurate, this is the pool you’re working with.

3. How popular is the Pokemon itself? I’d argue that Gyarados is one of the more popular Pokemon and Shining cards are a high end card category. Shining Gyarados checks both of those boxes and will naturally have higher than average price increases.

Given the above factors, I’m sure to some degree the current higher price will draw a few collectors to sell their cards at the new higher price which theoretically could cause a small retraction. Overall I would expect the high prices to remain probably 90% or more of what they are today

This was wicked thorough and I really appreciate it. I’ll keep my fingers crossed that this was just a fluke or a one time thing and then make sure I jump on a higher priced card. Might need to increase my buy price to $300 for at least a decent conditioned card (PSA 7-9) range. Not looking for a perfect back border. Just a great front and no scratches/bends. Guess I got to stay vigilant. Thanks again. This was a gorgeous card so I can see why people think it’s a PSA 10 contender, but I agree with the others, seems to be pretty steep just to hope that it’s a PSA 10 qualifier.

[kpod]

@azulryu

@lamplamp

@azulryu Here’s the questions I would ask myself when I’m considering if the price of a card will dip in the future:

1. Is there a large quantity of sealed product that would be profitable to open in order to increase the supply of the card in the market? In this case I’d say no, the expected value of opening a 1st Ed Neo Rev box is lower than the current price of boxes, so most collectors will keep their boxes sealed.

2. If supply is remaining the same, how rare is the card I’m searching for? According to the PSA Pop report, there are 281 PSA 9’s as of today which interestingly enough is the second highest holo pop in the set behind Shining Magikarp. Assuming the pop report is accurate, this is the pool you’re working with.

3. How popular is the Pokemon itself? I’d argue that Gyarados is one of the more popular Pokemon and Shining cards are a high end card category. Shining Gyarados checks both of those boxes and will naturally have higher than average price increases.

Given the above factors, I’m sure to some degree the current higher price will draw a few collectors to sell their cards at the new higher price which theoretically could cause a small retraction. Overall I would expect the high prices to remain probably 90% or more of what they are today

This was wicked thorough and I really appreciate it. I’ll keep my fingers crossed that this was just a fluke or a one time thing and then make sure I jump on a higher priced card. Might need to increase my buy price to $300 for at least a decent conditioned card (PSA 7-9) range. Not looking for a perfect back border. Just a great front and no scratches/bends. Guess I got to stay vigilant. Thanks again. This was a gorgeous card so I can see why people think it’s a PSA 10 contender, but I agree with the others, seems to be pretty steep just to hope that it’s a PSA 10 qualifier.

The card in the first post is not close to being a 10 contender. There are some vertical scratches/print lines in the holo, and you can see the back corners have some wear. PSA 8 or 9 at best.

[azulryu]

@kpod, rookie mistake on my part. Another reason why I should never look at eBay through my phone.

[cinnaminhbun]

@fresco

@cinnaminhbun

I really don’t understand auctions for raw cards sometimes. Often they go way above PSA 8 price and often a good margin above PSA 9 price. But the cards in question I always feel are a solid 8 candidate… and not much more. But then again we all know how quickly good BIN deals get sniped, so I guess this is one of the remaining outlets.

It’s kinda irrational tbh. It’s expecting to get a shot at a psa 10, you’re basically overpaying for the ultimate gamble of getting a psa 10 which is not a guaranteed instead of just paying more for something that is a solid 8-9.

It gives me incentive to unload my cards at what would essentially be a “PSA 8.5”-ish price while they’re raw and save myself the time and trouble of grading them. It’s all so whacky right now. You see it mostly in the 1st Edition base set Charizards. PSA 6 quality raw cards going for $4,000+ and what not.