1st Edition Base Set Common PSA 10 vs Base Set Holo PSA 9

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If you had a limited budget and were trying to decide to get either a few 1st edition base set PSA 10s vs 1st edition base set holo PSA 9. Which would you choose and why?

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Non-Base PSA 10 WOTC Holos

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holos - population a lot more fleshed out than the non-holos and the cards are more iconic, especially the big three and mewtwo

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What do you mean by more fleshed out? Your right about the big three but that’s kinda outside of budget atm.

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Fleshed out meaning more data, more comprehensive pop, more established, etc.

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Yep, alot of non holos weren’t that profitable to grade until October which psa hasn’t processed yet

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Well I would argue that the 1st edition base cards. The commons included probably is quite fleshed out as well. All the pack fresh ones I would imagine have largely been graded.

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I’d focus on rarity over quantity.

I believe that each 1st Edition Base Set pack contained 2 energy, 5 common, 3 uncommon, and 1 rare card. The rare card I think has a 1/3 chance of being a holofoil and a 2/3 chance of being non-holofoil. If those numbers are correct:

  1. With 32 common cards in the set the chance of pulling any given common card is 15.62%;
  2. With 32 uncommon cards in the set the chance of pulling any given uncommon card is 9.37%;
  3. With 16 non-holofoil rare cards in the set the chance of pulling any given non-holofoil rare card is 4.12%;
  4. With 15* holofoil rare cards in the set the chance of pulling any given holofoil rare card is 2.2%.

On top of that, theme decks with fixed card pulls exist. Without going into too much detail, this makes cards like Mewtwo, Ninetales, Hitmonchan and Gyarados more common than the other holofoil rare cards.

Thinking about it in terms of Booster Boxes, 1 Base Set 1st Edition booster box statistically contains:

  1. 5 of each common card;
  2. 3 of each uncommon card;
  3. 10.4 of the 16 non-holofoil rare cards;
  4. 4.95 of the 15* holofoil rare cards.

* As far as I’m aware Machamp wasn’t included in booster packs.

My numbers probably aren’t 100% accurate, but for me I think I’d value a PSA 9 holofoil significantly higher than a PSA 10 common or uncommon - I’d probably want to focus on PSA 10 non-holofoil rare cards over PSA 9 holofoil rare cards, but of course none of this factors in the card’s overall appeal and the demand it has.

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1st edition starter decks don’t exist so saying that mewtwo ninetales hitmonchan and gyarados are more common isn’t true.

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@woolsluk thanks, I’ve fixed my post. I wasn’t aware of that.

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There’s plenty of evidence to the contrary which can be found from submission posts across here and various social medias websites. There is definitely a lot of 1ed charmanders, squirtles, bulbasaurs, and pikachus sitting at PSA right now. How many come back as 9s or 10s though I couldn’t tell you.

I’d buy the holos but I do enjoy Red Cheeks Pikachu.