WOTC Box Market Discussion Thread

[c0ll3ct0r]

@admiral

I think the packs inside might be safe.

Yep, I think so too even if the crack in the bottom cardboard is a little weird. It takes a lot to damage the packs.

I would be very surprised if it doesn’t go cheaper than the others. That said, it may have a lot of extra eyes on it because people expect a discount, so some last minute fomo could prevent that.

[kevinertia]

@c0ll3ct0r

That said, it may have a lot of extra eyes on it because people expect a discount, so some last minute fomo could prevent that.

Yep, there was a pretty awful looking Rocket box on Heritage this last block that I figured I could buy cheap to open and… it went for pretty much the same price as all the other boxes.

[c0ll3ct0r]

@kevinertia

Yep, there was a pretty awful looking Rocket box on Heritage this last block that I figured I could buy cheap to open and… it went for pretty much the same price as all the other boxes.

It’s funny, the whole concept of box condition influencing prices is a newer thing in Pokemon. Back in the day, you didn’t get any premium for having a particularly minty box and the discount for having a real shitty one was minimal at best. But that was of course back when we could buy another one, and most of the time people bought boxes to open, not to invest or display.

[admiral]

People still getting their pre-extended bids in lol

Most of the boxes are now 17.5k / 18k+

I really thought I would be able to get a deal for box around $17.5k but it really doesn’t look like it

[null_user]

Quick, quarterly update, ahead of PWCC. Mostly for entertainment. Only updating expected value for Jungle (Ebay, PSA 10 mostly from TCA’s October 31st sale). Now using 0.1/0.65/0.25 for holo’s and 0.2/0.65/0.15 for non-holo’s (PSA 10/9/8). No longer fetching data for all non-holo cards, but still doing a thorough average for non-iconic cards (“other”). Remember the data starts at peak valuation (my E4 birthday).

How the simplified spreadsheet looks like : i.imgur.com/WWPvxuo.png

Jungle 1st (3-month) :

Light : $184
Unweighed : $277
Heavy : $462
Box : $9972
Box (rares only) : $4488
Box (holos only) : $3720

Avg PSA 10 (holo) : $1932 (-18%)
Avg PSA 9 (holo) : $208 (-43%)
Avg PSA 8 (holo) : $92 (-19%)

Avg PSA 10 (rare, non-holo) : $127 (-25%)
Avg PSA 9 (rare, non-holo) : $34 (-33%)

Avg PSA 10 (uncommon) : $81 (-17%)
Avg PSA 9 (uncommon) : $29 (-6%)

Avg PSA 10 (common) : $73 (-18%)
Avg PSA 9 (common) : $25 (-4%)

Quick analysis :

Expected value for Jungle 1st Edition has now met its market value, meaning that you can now expect to make or loose no money, if you open enough boxes and can get the cards graded at 2020 PSA rates (lowest tier at $20) and resell them immediately (assuming good liquidity) and assuming you magically avoid PSA 8 grades for bulk (i.e. expertly and luckily filter out bad cards). Not much to make of this in a volatile market.

As I mentioned a couple times already, sales of boxes have migrated from Ebay to PWCC and HA. Perhaps this is due to Ebayers increasingly concerned over the safety of trading sealed products on Ebay or stock from individuals drying up and LCS’s dumping their stock all at once in an auction house’s hands (as we’ve seen with Neo Genesis). Most likely the former. In either case, the total volume is stable and below the October - November madness. So, although we see these large sales, the total volume really is quite flat (for these early sets). That said, we would expect it to actually diminish.

Holo PSA 9’s were beaten very hard this quarter. The PSA 10 to 9 spread is now around 9.2, which is very high. As far as I know, in Pokemon, we mostly see such a large spread with high-volume cards that are strictly condition scarce, think Carddass or Topsun. It’s not uncommon as well with sports cards. Topsun Pikachu green back had a 10.7 multiple last PWCC auction and I think this is a prime example of condition-driven scarcity. The oldest data point I have for Jungle is March 29th 2021 and the multiple back then was 8, so it’s growing significantly. Now, I don’t think this is too surprising. The value of PSA 10 cards grows exponentially faster than lower grade cards, so it is natural for the spread to widen. More concretely, people may have noticed how static the PSA 10 population has become. However, I observe, as far as I’m aware of, that this spread is one of the largest in the hobby, so it may be premature.

The devaluation of PSA 9 uncommon and common cards has dramatically slowed down to seemingly stabilize around the $20 mark (grading fee). There’s a lot of speculation regarding if we will see them routinely trade below $20. It sure is a mental price floor, but it has in the past and can in the future trade under $20. With a $20 tier, the chance at PSA 10 can motivate new graders, even if PSA 9 trades under $20, further increasing supply. Now, it will be interesting to see if and when PSA reinstates a cheap tier.

I notice that the non-holo rare to uncommon/common spread is very low. I don’t have good data for this, but I think it was closer to a 2 multiple at the beginning of the year. It seems the non-holo rares are beaten the hardest. I suppose it shows how little set collectors there is for the whole supply.

[lowpopping]

@bobleponge

Quick, quarterly update, ahead of PWCC. Mostly for entertainment. Only updating expected value for Jungle (Ebay, PSA 10 mostly from TCA’s October 31st sale). Now using 0.1/0.65/0.25 for holo’s and 0.2/0.65/0.15 for non-holo’s (PSA 10/9/8). No longer fetching data for all non-holo cards, but still doing a thorough average for non-iconic cards (“other”). Remember the data starts at peak valuation (my E4 birthday).

How the simplified spreadsheet looks like : i.imgur.com/WWPvxuo.png

Jungle 1st (3-month) :

Light : $184
Unweighed : $277
Heavy : $462
Box : $9972
Box (rares only) : $4488
Box (holos only) : $3720

Avg PSA 10 (holo) : $1932 (-18%)
Avg PSA 9 (holo) : $208 (-43%)
Avg PSA 8 (holo) : $92 (-19%)

Avg PSA 10 (rare, non-holo) : $127 (-25%)
Avg PSA 9 (rare, non-holo) : $34 (-33%)

Avg PSA 10 (uncommon) : $81 (-17%)
Avg PSA 9 (uncommon) : $29 (-6%)

Avg PSA 10 (common) : $73 (-18%)
Avg PSA 9 (common) : $25 (-4%)

Quick analysis :

Expected value for Jungle 1st Edition has now met its market value, meaning that you can now expect to make or loose no money, if you open enough boxes and can get the cards graded at 2020 PSA rates (lowest tier at $20) and resell them immediately (assuming good liquidity) and assuming you magically avoid PSA 8 grades for bulk (i.e. expertly and luckily filter out bad cards). Not much to make of this in a volatile market.

As I mentioned a couple times already, sales of boxes have migrated from Ebay to PWCC and HA. Perhaps this is due to Ebayers increasingly concerned over the safety of trading sealed products on Ebay or stock from individuals drying up and LCS’s dumping their stock all at once in an auction house’s hands (as we’ve seen with Neo Genesis). Most likely the former. In either case, the total volume is stable and below the October - November madness. So, although we see these large sales, the total volume really is quite flat (for these early sets). That said, we would expect it to actually diminish.

Holo PSA 9’s were beaten very hard this quarter. The PSA 10 to 9 spread is now around 9.2, which is very high. As far as I know, in Pokemon, we mostly see such a large spread with high-volume cards that are strictly condition scarce, think Carddass or Topsun. It’s not uncommon as well with sports cards. Topsun Pikachu green back had a 10.7 multiple last PWCC auction and I think this is a prime example of condition-driven scarcity. The oldest data point I have for Jungle is March 29th 2021 and the multiple back then was 8, so it’s growing significantly. Now, I don’t think this is too surprising. The value of PSA 10 cards grows exponentially faster than lower grade cards, so it is natural for the spread to widen. More concretely, people may have noticed how static the PSA 10 population has become. However, I observe, as far as I’m aware of, that this spread is one of the largest in the hobby, so it may be premature.

The devaluation of PSA 9 uncommon and common cards has dramatically slowed down to seemingly stabilize around the $20 mark (grading fee). There’s a lot of speculation regarding if we will see them routinely trade below $20. It sure is a mental price floor, but it has in the past and can in the future trade under $20. With a $20 tier, the chance at PSA 10 can motivate new graders, even if PSA 9 trades under $20, further increasing supply. Now, it will be interesting to see if and when PSA reinstates a cheap tier.

I notice that the non-holo rare to uncommon/common spread is very low. I don’t have good data for this, but I think it was closer to a 2 multiple at the beginning of the year. It seems the non-holo rares are beaten the hardest. I suppose it shows how little set collectors there is for the whole supply.

Fantastic analysis, you are really intelligent, and thank you so much for providing this.

Although what I would say is in my opinion I feel the expected value in the boxes is lower then you have calculated.

I don’t think 10% of ‘newly graded holo 1st Edition Jungle Holo cards’ will achieve a PSA 10 due to tighter grading requirements (*if this holds true). My guess is 10% is closer to a historic PSA 10 rate. Whereas if you compare the additional number of PSA 10s and PSA 9s graded within the last year, it will be significantly lower then 10% achieving PSA 10 for the 1st Ed Jungle Holos on average.

Tighter grading requirements = lower expected value of booster boxes.

I feel that PSA 10 WOTC holos in 1st edition will outperform booster boxes in the long term, despite the box supply going down and the supply remaining relatively fixed/slowly increasing of PSA 10s as I feel the box prices are closer pegged to the PSA 9 holo prices. I also feel boxes will outperform PSA 9 holos. PSA 10 > Boxes > PSA 9 in my opinion.

What do you think about my views?

[xuzu]

@lowpopping I don’t see any evidence that there are any ‘tighter grading requirements’ now than before personally. If you’re looking at the data of new PSA 9’s and 10’s graded year on year and the rate between them is expanding, the most obvious cause of that would be that there are simply less gem mint raw cards out there in collections, and probably less boxes being opened year on year also. In 10 years from now the rates will probably be even more skewed towards mid-grade condition cards.

You could only draw those conclusions you’re making in a controlled experiment where you only sent pack fresh cards from the same set (and a real significant amount at that) every single year and monitored the results.

[null_user]

All good points.

I also feel boxes will outperform PSA 9 holos. PSA 10 > Boxes > PSA 9 in my opinion.

The expected value of boxes will grow as a function of the probability of pulling each card at each grade. Since a box has more 8’s than 10’s, the expected value of boxes should underperform the PSA 9 average, but the faster growth in value of PSA 10’s and chase cards offset this. We can look at historical data to approximate future trends. Since late 2016, Jungle 1st Edition Snorlax has increased in value around 12/9/6 times, respectively in PSA 10/9/8. Plugging in the 2016 and today numbers and the 0.1/0.65/0.25 odds, the weighted average of Snorlax increased 10 times, so slightly better than PSA 9.

The market value is something else and it will also grow due to the seal premium and that’s a function of many things.

A while ago, I looked at MTG and found that, in a same time period :

Alpha sealed starter deck : 70x
Alpha Black Lotus PSA 10 : 54x
Alpha common PSA 10 : 14x

Based on my VERY rough analysis the seal premium of the deck was around $50,000 (around 60% of the sales price). These sealed products are extraordinarily rare, though, and the chase is incredible. Nonetheless, it shows that a seal can be worth a small fortune. Room to grow for Pokemon.

And I looked very briefly at the 1986 Fleer Baseball products :

Sealed box : 18x
Sealed pack : 11x
Michael Jordan PSA 10 : 75x
Michael Jordan PSA 9 : 27x

In this case, it appears that the sealed products greatly underperformed the chase card, even in PSA 9.

[c0ll3ct0r]

@xuzu

there are simply less gem mint raw cards out there in collections, and probably less boxes being opened year on year also.

There are fewer people out there sitting on booster boxes worth of raw gem mint, but think about all the post-covid box breaks and how that has left probably thousands of additional people with small bite size meals of raw gem mint. I fully agree with the general trajectory however, we will get there eventually. But I think 2020/21 disrupted that trajectory and it’ll take at least a few years before we’re back on schedule.

[xuzu]

@c0ll3ct0r

@xuzu

there are simply less gem mint raw cards out there in collections, and probably less boxes being opened year on year also.

There are fewer people out there sitting on booster boxes worth of raw gem mint, but think about all the post-covid box breaks and how that has left probably thousands of additional people with small bite size meals of raw gem mint. I fully agree with the general trajectory however, we will get there eventually. But I think 2020/21 disrupted that trajectory and it’ll take at least a few years before we’re back on schedule.

I agree. In any long term trend rarely does it only go up or down 100% of the time, there is nuance in the short term. Re the box breaks yes there have been more opened* (*that we’ve seen) but plenty were being opened before then too. People have been trying to find and grade these kinds of cards in mint condition en mass since about 2015 arguably. I still think when you factor in all of the raw cards that have been pinched out of collections at large in that time, the increase in observed box breaks since 2020 is actually fairly insignificant to overall supply of raw gem mint cards in my opinion.

[cosrob]

Resealed jungle unl box

www.ebay.com/itm/Pokemon-Jungle-Booster-Box-Unlimited-Factory-Sealed-WOTC-/284524993609?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&_trksid=p2349624.m46890.l6249&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0

[admiral]

Looks like all the Genesis boxes are at least $18.5k except for the beat up box which is at $17.5k

Not as low as I thought it would be for 11 boxes for sale at once.

My limit was $16k on a box so I will sit these out

[lowpopping]

@xuzu

@lowpopping I don’t see any evidence that there are any ‘tighter grading requirements’ now than before personally. If you’re looking at the data of new PSA 9’s and 10’s graded year on year and the rate between them is expanding, the most obvious cause of that would be that there are simply less gem mint raw cards out there in collections, and probably less boxes being opened year on year also. In 10 years from now the rates will probably be even more skewed towards mid-grade condition cards.

You could only draw those conclusions you’re making in a controlled experiment where you only sent pack fresh cards from the same set (and a real significant amount at that) every single year and monitored the results.

Yeah I see your point about doing a controlled experiment. But I would say that many collectors do feel that there are tighter grading requirements at present hence why some people pay premiums for 5/6 certs.

But yes doing a controlled experiment/analysing lots of data would help to draw a conclusion.

[xuzu]

@lowpopping

@xuzu

@lowpopping I don’t see any evidence that there are any ‘tighter grading requirements’ now than before personally. If you’re looking at the data of new PSA 9’s and 10’s graded year on year and the rate between them is expanding, the most obvious cause of that would be that there are simply less gem mint raw cards out there in collections, and probably less boxes being opened year on year also. In 10 years from now the rates will probably be even more skewed towards mid-grade condition cards.

You could only draw those conclusions you’re making in a controlled experiment where you only sent pack fresh cards from the same set (and a real significant amount at that) every single year and monitored the results.

Yeah I see your point about doing a controlled experiment. But I would say that many collectors do feel that there are tighter grading requirements at present hence why some people pay premiums for 5/6 certs.

But yes doing a controlled experiment/analysing lots of data would help to draw a conclusion.

Johnny-come-lately will start collecting in 2025 and say the same thing about 7/8 certs

[c0ll3ct0r]

I don’t get the cert wars. It’s entirely possible standards have changed, I really don’t give a shit either or, and I totally understand why someone would think so if they have a hundred cards of 6-something certs that all look better than a hundred 2-something certs, regardless of what people say.

…but surely people still have eyes in their heads to check card condition for themselves? Doesn’t that just make this whole discussion irrelevant?

[seafoamarticuno]

@cosrob

Resealed jungle unl box

www.ebay.com/itm/Pokemon-Jungle-Booster-Box-Unlimited-Factory-Sealed-WOTC-/284524993609?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&_trksid=p2349624.m46890.l6249&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0

Just curious, how can you tell it’s resealed?

Wrapping isn’t tightly fitted and the wear on the box (like the corners) doesn’t match up with wear on the wrapping?

Asking to learn more… I’ve thought about buying a sealed box for a while, but I’m scared of getting a resealed box… even if it’s a small chance, it’s scary given the price of boxes.

[zorloth]

@bobleponge

All good points.

I also feel boxes will outperform PSA 9 holos. PSA 10 > Boxes > PSA 9 in my opinion.

The expected value of boxes will grow as a function of the probability of pulling each card at each grade. Since a box has more 8’s than 10’s, the expected value of boxes should underperform the PSA 9 average, but the faster growth in value of PSA 10’s and chase cards offset this. We can look at historical data to approximate future trends. Since late 2016, Jungle 1st Edition Snorlax has increased in value around 12/9/6 times, respectively in PSA 10/9/8. Plugging in the 2016 and today numbers and the 0.1/0.65/0.25 odds, the weighted average of Snorlax increased 10 times, so slightly better than PSA 9.

The market value is something else and it will also grow due to the seal premium and that’s a function of many things.

A while ago, I looked at MTG and found that, in a same time period :

Alpha sealed starter deck : 70x
Alpha Black Lotus PSA 10 : 54x
Alpha common PSA 10 : 14x

Based on my VERY rough analysis the seal premium of the deck was around $50,000 (around 60% of the sales price). These sealed products are extraordinarily rare, though, and the chase is incredible. Nonetheless, it shows that a seal can be worth a small fortune. Room to grow for Pokemon.

And I looked very briefly at the 1986 Fleer Baseball products :

Sealed box : 18x
Sealed pack : 11x
Michael Jordan PSA 10 : 75x
Michael Jordan PSA 9 : 27x

In this case, it appears that the sealed products greatly underperformed the chase card, even in PSA 9.

Your analysis is (in general) great, but your MTG numbers are dramatically off. I initially wasn’t going to respond because I didn’t want to derail the thread, but because of how far-off your numbers are from reality, I felt compelled to. Correct me if I’m wrong, but you’re saying that Alpha starter decks have increased in value 70-fold over the past 5 years? Alpha starters are currently worth $80-$100k and they were worth $10-$15k in 2016. So they’ve increased in value by a factor of ~7, not 70. A significant enough difference that I felt it worth correcting the record on.

Same story with your Alpha Lotus number. BGS 9 Alpha Lotuses were selling for ~$25k back in 2016. If we say (hyper-conservatively) that PSA 10 Alpha Lotus was worth $35k back then, then it’s gone up in value by (at most) a factor of 14. Also a pretty humungous difference from the 54x you have listed.

Also, I will say that Alpha sealed product is not as rare as you might think. I have it on good authority that there 250+ sealed starters left in existence. The “seal premium” on Alpha is very little. I think it would be more accurate to term it a “gambler’s premium.” Most of the value of a sealed product (in excess of the average value of its contents), is a function of the possibility that its contents might exceed its sealed value. I think that this is true in both MTG and Pokemon. Just my view of things .

[cosrob]

@seafoamarticuno

@cosrob

Resealed jungle unl box

www.ebay.com/itm/Pokemon-Jungle-Booster-Box-Unlimited-Factory-Sealed-WOTC-/284524993609?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&_trksid=p2349624.m46890.l6249&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0

Just curious, how can you tell it’s resealed?

Wrapping isn’t tightly fitted and the wear on the box (like the corners) doesn’t match up with wear on the wrapping?

Asking to learn more… I’ve thought about buying a sealed box for a while, but I’m scared of getting a resealed box… even if it’s a small chance, it’s scary given the price of boxes.

A whole heap of heat bubbles all over the box, especially in places you don’t ordinarily see them. The wrapping on top is meant to be straight, this looks like it has creases and the WOTC logos on the bottom (with this said there are legit jungle boxes with wotc logos on the bottom).

If youre worried about a box post it here, someone will give an opinion if its looks legit or not.

[c0ll3ct0r]

I’m more lenient than most when it comes to box condition but I agree with @cosrob , that box is very sketchy. Absolutely terrible wrapping of course but another bad sign is the wear on the cardboard itself along the sides of the lid, this is the kind of wear you expect to see AFTER a box has been unsealed and then exposed to the elements for an extended amount of time.

[cosrob]

Someone got a very cheap jungle 1st

www.ebay.com/itm/Pokemon-1st-Edition-Jungle-Booster-Box-36-Packs-Factory-Sealed-/234279333327?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&_trksid=p2349624.m46890.l6249&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0