I put together my thoughts in the form of a PSA population comparison post between the 2009, 2010 and AA sets last year which can be found at: www.elitefourum.com/t/the-pwcc-megathread/18812/3753. There was a lot of uniformity when looking at both 2009 and 2010 as if to imply that full sets had been leaked out at some point rather than the cards originating from the winners organically. This wasn’t seen in the AA contests, but we’ve since seen a lot of extra copies of those appear on the market that were previously not known to exist.
I think right now I’d conclude something along the lines of:
- The 2009 contest had a small number of extra copies of each card leaked out (between 5 and 10);
- The 2010 contest had a large number of extra copies of each card leaked out (between 50 and 200);
- The 2015 Art Academy has a growing known number of extra copies of each card leaked out (at least 13).
For futuer reference, as of the time of this post the average number of cards graded by PSA for each contest is:
- 4 - 2009 Design Contest;
- 47 - 2010 Design Contest;
- 27 - 2015 Art Academy (non-Japanese);
- 12 - 2015 Art Academy (Japanese).
Hopefully we’ll soon have additional pop reports for CGC and a working one for BGS to throw into the mix. I know quite a few Art Academy cards are BGS-graded but not included above.