Do you think this era exists? In 10 years will we almost never see PSA 10 Base Set Zards and other stuff auction and it will just be hoarded or will we always be in a world where if you have enough money you can buy the card you want?
This already exists for 1-of-1 rare niche Pokemon stuff like original art shikishis, uncut sheets. It’s inevitable it will spread to rare cards.
some cards never did have “S-tier” copies to begin with. I know of a few such cases. Usually promos that were packaged poorly.
set cards? If you have the money, you can buy them
Any reasonable person not already in the space longterm would see the price of even the most mid-range of ‘desirable’ cards and put Pokemon card collecting in the ‘too expensive’ box. There is no way a reasonable person would look at a Pokemon card and think even spending 1000 dollars on one is something that is within budget or within acceptable expenditure.
Every single card I own that is in the S-tier of desirable is now so far beyond what I would be willing to spend on it myself. The only way I could ever own it is under the current condition of buying it when 500 dollars for a card was EXCEEEDINGLY expensive.
This, a thousand times this. I spent a pretty penny years back buying and cracking neo era holos and shinings. Looking at what the prices are now for say, a PSA 8 shining charizard, there’s no way I would shell out that much these days for that card. Same for other chase cards. It’s really unfortunate in my book because a lot of my collection goals just seem unachievable - completing sets, for example.
Probably, but I like to remember to myself that they will wither eventually, and ALL cards succumb to existence even slabbed ones.
Owning my PC in my lifetime makes me happy, but even hyper modern will one day be unobtainable including the common cards, so the “future” doesnt really seem bleak to me as long as Im happy in the moment.
Also I like to believe decades later they will just reprint things for people to enjoy, but that is just a wish and will not happen, but could!
If interest & demand keep pace, anything is possible. A lot of cards I’ve bought have gotten to valuations I never imagined in such a short time. A lot of them also aren’t trading hands nearly as often as they were as a lot people seem to be holding or reluctant to sell as they pay a higher price. It’s not as easy to ‘flip’ because it may be difficult to get that same card back for the same or less money it seems.
I would say for most set cards it’ll take a long time to get to this ‘unobtainium’ point. Only thing I’ve found I can compare Pokemon with is some vintage sports cards.
For example, many cards in the 1950s Topps Baseball sets have comparable graded pops to 1st Ed Base and some 1st Ed Neo sets in Pokemon. With those sports cards the only thing you can find most days is the low grade stuff (PSA 1-6), while anything higher (PSA 7+) is usually a premium auction or at the very least 5+ figures on the more popular cards. I think inevitably many Pokemon cards/sets will eventually reach this same level of pricing & availability, and in fact many are almost at this point even now. It will just take time.
For super rare promos and low supply cards, it’s probably only going to get worse. New sales will likely become rare and record breaking. That’s usually what most vintage sports cards do, and some of them only hit the market every few years now, so I think Pokemon could follow a similar pattern over the next 5, 10, 15 years.
This is a tough one just determining what is S tier. SNAP cards in probably any grade or condition, or under 20 pop trophy cards, S tier. Base set 1st ed PSA 10 Charlizard, Gold Stars PSA 10 only, S tier, Neo Dogs, Neo and Crystal Lugia, some Shining cards, Neo Umbreon and Espeon, Dark Espeon, etc 1st ed Neo PSA 10s, S tier, right? I’ve listed a lot of set cards here which I’d consider the “floor” of S tier—basically sub 150 pop Rookie or iconic cards from the most short printed sets or lowest gem rate and most popular cards.
Most of these cards have been in the hands of collectors. As the trade up game continues due to values and cashing out, they transition to include investors/speculators with the end game, eventually, being only the most die hard collectors (who will end up passing them on to those who will likely not be diamond handed) and the wealthiest class who will never sell because they are just another item in their treasure hordes.
In this example there are a lot of S tier cards, so even for low pop cards you’d need enough exposure and generally agreed upon market sentiment to lock in that demand. That said, you’d only need about 100 “I need one of every S tier card” Saudi prince types to exist to basically put the S tier market on ice. I think sports cards are the best equivalent example. When a big card comes to auction, it’s an event. So we already know what the end game looks like—these cards end up in diamond hands. The only question is if Pokémon has the legs for that (which I believe it does) and if so, how long until that happens.
At this rate, I’d say this could happen within the next 10-25 years (which I’m aware sounds absolutely insane) IF the conditions remain favorable for this to occur. So I tend to agree the lower grades would be the cards getting shuffled around between mere mortals, with the entire rest of the market as the active playground. Add in the fact there are S tier cards sitting raw in collector binders and the true S tier cards will remain scarce and rarely seen. Eventually things get to the point where price doesn’t matter, there is no financial enticement to draw the card to market. But I don’t think prices are at that point yet even though cards are becoming more scarce. We are still very definitively in the trade up phase in my opinion.
Unfortunately, yes. Cards owned by exceptionally wealthy people are less likely to fall back onto the market. The number of exceptionally wealthy people who collect Pokemon will increase, and so the number of available copies of truly S-tier rare cards will naturally decrease over time, This collector cycle has already proven true in sports card collecting, MTG collecting, fine art collecting, etc.
This future is all but guaranteed. Even in a scenario where TPC/TPCi went out of business, consumers would chase the nostalgia. What has been made available to the public exists in its own little ecosystem. The giant that is Pokemon could deteriorate, but this market is alive and operates independently from its creator. Nostalgia carries markets until it itself runs out in the population of potential consumers. That would be many, many generations for Pokemon.
no
I am under this impression currently- If you don’t get the cards you want now, you will be priced out. If you’re not priced out; You may not be willing to spend that money.
I started my 5-year-old daughters collection last year with her, buying her some random Japanese vintage Pikachu’s, all 5x’d in under a year. I would not have spent 150 on a card for her just because she liked it. (Too young for that money lol)
If you have enough money it feels like anything is obtainable these days. The only way I can see this happening is if they release serialized cards and something like a 1/1 is never pulled cause it is sitting in a sealed hoarders stash.
I wonder if releasing serialized cards (boo) will keep people from hoarding sealed, resulting in more open product and more singles on the market
My first thought exactly. There are 2-3 mew grails i haven’t seen in auction for like half a decade
Probably not. The likelihood of pulling the cards is so low, it’s more profitable to just sit on sealed and sell it off later.
Though sports and MTG are already your proof - so whatever it looks like there will probably just replicate itself here. Sports seems to have a billion 1 of 1 cards which defeats the purpose.
Reading through this was interesting seeing the variance in definition of “unobtainable.” Like for example I waited on Ooyama’s Pikachu for my vending set back when it was 100ish and now it’s basically unobtainable in my eyes. But for wealthier people that’s nothing and their version of unobtainable is trophy cards etc.
It’s not like the biggest revelation, but it’s just interesting how much (for lack of a better term) class separation the last few years have brought on.
specifically he means truly mint condition copies of cards. And specifically the ability to find someone willing to sell at any price. I have plenty of cards that aren’t all that special which I have no desire to part with, and they aren’t even mint condition.