Yes, that is partly true. Here is a brief explanation on why the baseball market burst during the late 80’s early 90’s. The general answer is greed. If you check page 3 of that brief summary it highlights how the companies, dealers and collectors all had a role in the burst. However, the specific stories come from mostly experience and participation in forums. The stories you hear in baseball are wild. Literally one of the big collectors in pokemon, who used to distribute for topps told me he was held at gun point for a shipment of Griffey rookie cards. That is the type of mania baseball cards produced, which pokemon is nowhere near.
Warning, long read ahead!
How things played out with baseball are not identical to pokemon. In fact, pokemon has a slower growth, which is better. You want hobbies to be slow and steady. Safe investing is slow and steady. While I am not encouraging pokemon as a financial investment, the long term patterns of investing are similar. The only time pokemon had a “burst” is when the initial fanfare ended from the 90’s and early 2000’s. Which again, the focus is on the terms, “immediate, temporary”. The good old tortoise and the hare; long term vs short term.
Also, the initial fanfare that pokemon received with kids is not the problem, if anything that is the redeeming aspect. While the kids loved the once in a lifetime experience that was/is pokemon, there were plenty of adults trying to make a quick buck who couldn’t distinguish Blastoise from Ivysaur. I remember seeing a qvc auction back in the day and they were for pokemon figures. The people selling them called Blastoise, Ivysaur…
However, what you have now with pokemon is a hobby rooted in collectors who value the hobby. A personal connection, a long term connection. I have run into a few flebayers from the initial boom in pokemon. Their predictable concentrated 1999-2001 “collections” say it all, because their literacy in the hobby cannot. But the amount of old flebayers that I have personally experienced is negligible.
The biggest problem with baseball is that it became purely an investment. That is why I always emphasize keeping an eye on how many people collect, or perhaps more specifically, how and what they are collecting. Baseball card companies, upper deck in particular, started to roll out ridiculous amounts of cards. Before this, vintage and 70’s-80’ sports cards would typically release 1-2 main sets per year. In hockey, which is more of my expertise, the older/vintage cards have two sets per year. In those sets there is 1 rookie card with the same illustration. High graded rookies are collectible as they are difficult to obtain because of their age and limited quantity.
However, Upper Deck started, or at least gets credited for starting the trend of tactically printing “rare” cards. I don’t mean how pokemon has Full arts and what not, there are literally 20+ different “rookie” card variants for one year. Here is a perfect example: Wayne Gretzky, The Great One, the best player in hockey has 2 Rookie cards, both with the same illustration. Sidney Crosby, who is the best active NHL player has 24 Rookie Cards.
The blame on the buyers for the baseball burst falls on the individuals who were only buying cards as “cardboard gold”. Since they had no clue what the hell they were doing, they would buy these overly printed cards for high prices. Not understanding that “rookie card” should be singular, not plural.
Dealers did not care about the consumers incentive, as they just wanted the money, which is the cold reality of business. The big eyed, uneducated buyers read the words “rookie” on the modern cards they purchased and thought they were going to get the same return as a 52 Mantle rookie. They failed to realize that their perception of what they were buying was based on the old vintage card standard.
This is why third party companies primarily focus on vintage cards. They are quantifiable. Also, the whole steroid issue has tarnished a lot of the modern athletes, while the older ones from the vintage era remain legends. If anything, the increase in steroid usage propels the vintage era even higher. They have the single, unique illustrations along with almost zero negative connotations. Parallels can be drawn to the pre 2003 trophy cards in pokemon. Their allure stems from their simplicity, and how their unique illustration connects to their origin. Ultimately legitimizing and reinforcing themselves as top shelf collectibles.
Modern sports cards are primarily memorabilia cards. At least the buyer is getting an autograph, that adds a more legitimate level of uniqueness than saturating the term “rookie”. There is constant criticism towards the sports collecting market as you have the same patterns of young bucks trying to make a quick buck.
Modern Sport card collectors do not have the same connection that the previous generation did as there are so many types of cards and too many qualifiers. Back in the day, you had the Nolan ryan rookie. Not the Nolan Ryan Gold, Signed, Patch card. The patch cards have a certain uniqueness to them, I have some myself, but you have to make peace, or at least ignore the contrived aspect of their existence.
tl;dr
The common threat in all booms is being aware of how the short term will effect the long term. I know that sounds basic, and probably obvious, but in general, I don’t think you have to worry about pokemon. What keeps people engaged and cards increasing in value is an emotional connection, something sports cards are lacking these days. I have seen guys spend 10’s of thousands of dollars in this hobby on cards they love, lose some, sell some out of necessity, disappear for years, and then come back and buy them again for more.
There is no real clear cut answer, but coming from someone who seriously collects both sports cards and non-sports, I worry more about sports cards than pokemon. As another serious collector said, “I don’t have to worry about pikachu getting busted for steroids.” 