Will the PSA bubble burst for Pokemon?

I think what @hisoka107 is saying is that not all resellers are the same. He is making an distinction between resellers because he does not have a problem with the resellers on UPCCC that Gary had mentioned (i.e. 90% of the community).

Some resellers are clearly in the business for a quick buck and don’t have the slightest care in the world for the hobby. Other resellers might buy cards for their own collection and then resell them to accommodate a new focus in their collection. Either way, they are resellers, but their motives are different. Hope this clarifies things! :blush:

EDIT: @funmonkey54 we keep posting on the same threads. :stuck_out_tongue:

1 Like

Thank you for that. I am not always the greatest at wordsmithing my arguements to reflect what I mean. That’s exactly the reason I am majoring in Biology and previously mathematics. There is a difference between resellers and while I’ve only been back into collecting pokemon for a few short years I’ve just now noticed this distinction. To me, collecting has always been about capturing the nostalgia from when me and my dad collected sports cards, comics and super hero collectibles. Later I went on to collect and play pokemon, yu gi oh an MTG so that’s probably why it irks me.

Pure resellers are important to the hobby. Just like markets and malls.

Reasons why some sellers may mark up 25%:

  1. they paid that amount…
  2. they don’t want to lose the item, at least unless the price is right…
  3. advertising purposes…
  4. selling for a friend who sets the price…
  5. they expect a price spike down the road and can hold out, not desperate to sell (ie: gold stars recently)…
  6. too many buyers message lowball offers based on his listed price.
  7. some use ‘make an offer’ where starting price is less important but a higher one will discourage the kids or bottom feeders.
  8. they don’t want to make fellow ebayers look bad by undercutting their prices
  9. overall its a reasonable tool for increasing profit or minimizing losses
  10. I’m sure there’s many more!
2 Likes

Yes, that is true. Every hobby needs sellers. I think the distinction being made is in regards to sellers who value the hobby, at least enough to know what they are doing. Typically when people get into something for quick cash they do not have the proper experience, which usually comes from being engaged, putting in that work. They are ultimately depending on others knowledge. Hence why you probably have a handful of people lurking this site to use the knowledge to help their sales.

If you look through ebay, there are plenty of sellers who have the hot graded cards, and worst, the spam titles. There is one in particular who messaged me to try and unload his items. That particular seller sells on multiple accounts. They were posted in ebay garbage for listing items with “No 1st edition” “No shining” when the card does not have a 1st edition or shining variant.

Point being that this sort of nonsense is what ruins hobbies. Saturating the market by ignorance/greed. Not having basic business sense of supply and demand. Read how the 1980’s-90’s baseball bubble burst. Similar bandwagon mentality but on a much greater scale.

3 Likes

Very interesting aspect. Are you able to point to any specific articles that go more in depth about the Baseball card bubble? I googled and from what I’ve read the bubble burst because so many people were collecting to preserve the cards for future sales instead of present sales. This along with a huge supply printing of the cards by the companies drove the demand down along with the prices (naturally). I am sure there is more to it I have not read about yet though. (?)

So in comparison it could be like Pokemon collectors buying sealed XY boxes because they anticipate the price to increase over the next few years; however, since so many people have the same idea it just never happens. This would be because there are so many people stocking up on sealed boxes and less people opening them that the supply would be higher than they anticipated in those next few years.

At least thats a small something I got out of trying to compare the two.

Yes, that is partly true. Here is a brief explanation on why the baseball market burst during the late 80’s early 90’s. The general answer is greed. If you check page 3 of that brief summary it highlights how the companies, dealers and collectors all had a role in the burst. However, the specific stories come from mostly experience and participation in forums. The stories you hear in baseball are wild. Literally one of the big collectors in pokemon, who used to distribute for topps told me he was held at gun point for a shipment of Griffey rookie cards. That is the type of mania baseball cards produced, which pokemon is nowhere near.

Warning, long read ahead!

How things played out with baseball are not identical to pokemon. In fact, pokemon has a slower growth, which is better. You want hobbies to be slow and steady. Safe investing is slow and steady. While I am not encouraging pokemon as a financial investment, the long term patterns of investing are similar. The only time pokemon had a “burst” is when the initial fanfare ended from the 90’s and early 2000’s. Which again, the focus is on the terms, “immediate, temporary”. The good old tortoise and the hare; long term vs short term.

Also, the initial fanfare that pokemon received with kids is not the problem, if anything that is the redeeming aspect. While the kids loved the once in a lifetime experience that was/is pokemon, there were plenty of adults trying to make a quick buck who couldn’t distinguish Blastoise from Ivysaur. I remember seeing a qvc auction back in the day and they were for pokemon figures. The people selling them called Blastoise, Ivysaur…

However, what you have now with pokemon is a hobby rooted in collectors who value the hobby. A personal connection, a long term connection. I have run into a few flebayers from the initial boom in pokemon. Their predictable concentrated 1999-2001 “collections” say it all, because their literacy in the hobby cannot. But the amount of old flebayers that I have personally experienced is negligible.

The biggest problem with baseball is that it became purely an investment. That is why I always emphasize keeping an eye on how many people collect, or perhaps more specifically, how and what they are collecting. Baseball card companies, upper deck in particular, started to roll out ridiculous amounts of cards. Before this, vintage and 70’s-80’ sports cards would typically release 1-2 main sets per year. In hockey, which is more of my expertise, the older/vintage cards have two sets per year. In those sets there is 1 rookie card with the same illustration. High graded rookies are collectible as they are difficult to obtain because of their age and limited quantity.

However, Upper Deck started, or at least gets credited for starting the trend of tactically printing “rare” cards. I don’t mean how pokemon has Full arts and what not, there are literally 20+ different “rookie” card variants for one year. Here is a perfect example: Wayne Gretzky, The Great One, the best player in hockey has 2 Rookie cards, both with the same illustration. Sidney Crosby, who is the best active NHL player has 24 Rookie Cards.

The blame on the buyers for the baseball burst falls on the individuals who were only buying cards as “cardboard gold”. Since they had no clue what the hell they were doing, they would buy these overly printed cards for high prices. Not understanding that “rookie card” should be singular, not plural.

Dealers did not care about the consumers incentive, as they just wanted the money, which is the cold reality of business. The big eyed, uneducated buyers read the words “rookie” on the modern cards they purchased and thought they were going to get the same return as a 52 Mantle rookie. They failed to realize that their perception of what they were buying was based on the old vintage card standard.

This is why third party companies primarily focus on vintage cards. They are quantifiable. Also, the whole steroid issue has tarnished a lot of the modern athletes, while the older ones from the vintage era remain legends. If anything, the increase in steroid usage propels the vintage era even higher. They have the single, unique illustrations along with almost zero negative connotations. Parallels can be drawn to the pre 2003 trophy cards in pokemon. Their allure stems from their simplicity, and how their unique illustration connects to their origin. Ultimately legitimizing and reinforcing themselves as top shelf collectibles.

Modern sports cards are primarily memorabilia cards. At least the buyer is getting an autograph, that adds a more legitimate level of uniqueness than saturating the term “rookie”. There is constant criticism towards the sports collecting market as you have the same patterns of young bucks trying to make a quick buck.

Modern Sport card collectors do not have the same connection that the previous generation did as there are so many types of cards and too many qualifiers. Back in the day, you had the Nolan ryan rookie. Not the Nolan Ryan Gold, Signed, Patch card. The patch cards have a certain uniqueness to them, I have some myself, but you have to make peace, or at least ignore the contrived aspect of their existence.

tl;dr

The common threat in all booms is being aware of how the short term will effect the long term. I know that sounds basic, and probably obvious, but in general, I don’t think you have to worry about pokemon. What keeps people engaged and cards increasing in value is an emotional connection, something sports cards are lacking these days. I have seen guys spend 10’s of thousands of dollars in this hobby on cards they love, lose some, sell some out of necessity, disappear for years, and then come back and buy them again for more.

There is no real clear cut answer, but coming from someone who seriously collects both sports cards and non-sports, I worry more about sports cards than pokemon. As another serious collector said, “I don’t have to worry about pikachu getting busted for steroids.” :blush:

3 Likes

Wow great read, it was worth it! Thanks for posting that :grin: Its crazy how those rookie cards were printed in such higher numbers for the sports cards

Having been a card/comic shop owner I can attest to the 80s and 90s cards fluctuations. I still have tons of these mostly valueless cards. My one tip for profit would be: pick up as many 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookies. When he goes into the Hall of Fame in 2016 the values will surely rise. Though he was regarded as petulant there was never any suspicion of drug/ped use which has killed the value of the other stars of the day like McGuire, Conseco, and Sosa among others. Even full sets containing this rookie are a good investment. I believe it contains Randy Johnson’s rookie too?

  1. an item may be listed above or below the actual value cause the seller isn’t sure of the price.
1 Like

What a fascinating topic. I really enjoyed reading people’s comments. Scott I enjoyed your comments on steady price increases versus booms or busts in the market. I agree that PSA will continue to be popular and increase prices on old Pokemon cards from the original era and some of the rarer ones from a few years after, especially promo and trophy cards. Newer cards are harder to predict but I agree with Scott that the older cards are becoming harder to find in true gem mint condition. Even in the past two years I’ve noticed how it’s getting harder and harder to find gem mint cards. So especially with the older cards I think PSA cards will continue to go up and be the standard for what a mint card is. With newer cards there is less nostalgia working in their favor so it will be interesting to see what will happen with time.

So I without a doubt love PSA cards. I like their guarantee for a mint card and their nice presentation as a collector and I like how the PSA 9’s and 10’s tend to hold their value pretty well. But there is one thing that drives me nuts. I feel recently PSA 9 cards have really decreases in value and demand. Everyone wants 10’s. Of course who doesn’t, but with older cards people need to be reasonable and understand there are only so many 10’s out there. Many cards I’d be happy to collect in 9 condition but I’m fearful to because their value is not as steady as with the 10’s. It’s really frustrating as a collector trying to protect myself financially by buying cards that hold their value in case I need to sell them in the future or change my interest. Granted that’s probably just the reality of graded cards but I do feel that 9’s have taken a hit from the increase in new cards getting graded and the increased belief that 10’s should be the standard to a good collection. If you want 10’s that’s fine ( I often prefer them for my favorite cards or sets) but at least be reasonable and expect to pay 10 prices. Idk I’ll get off my soap box now.

This is an amazing point. There has been a huge increase of grading brand new cards (that are readily acquired from fresh packs from fresh boxes, with 2014 printing and packaging capabilities that far exceed those of the late 90’s / early 2000’s when they were just trying to push out cards as fast as possible to attempt to meet demand. All the while, in these early printings the cutters often left cards with edge wear straight out of packs and uncentered cards left right and center). For all those reasons and more, it’s incredibly harder to grade 10’s on old cards versus brand new cards. Not to mention that in 15 years these cards have seen a lot of wear, disappeared, been scooped up by worldwide collectors, etc.

Many collectors assume 10’s are as readily attainable on the old cards as the new cards, but the lack of 10’s for sale on these early releases is telling. It is so hard to get a 10 or many times a 9 on these older cards, even straight from sealed.

1 Like

@cbd1235 and @darkrai
Love what you both said and totally agree. While one could argue that capitalism reigns and therefore the prices cards are being sold at are their true value, I personally view the current values as skewed due to people’s perceptions of the ease of obtaining a PSA 10. This is why I really don’t like doing auctions because then cards I feel in the long term are more valuable get undercut which only adds to the perception of their decreased value and it spirals onward. I hope indeed that in the near future prices come back around and people are able to appreciate how good a PSA 9 card really is for older rare cards.

1 Like

It’s almost like there’s a ceiling on payable value these days.
Anybody else notice how psa 10 1st Base Charizard values have stagnated or gone down but the PSA 9s are climbing fast?

Because Probstein123 has continuously listed the 10’s for the past couple months. He usually only deals in sports cards, but I have noticed him and a handful of the other predominantly sport card shops have started listing pokemon cards.

1 Like

I have noticed that trend on the psa 10 s. When I first started grading a year ago a charizard was sold at the BIN price of $6000. Now they auction for 3400 to 4200. Quite a price drop and I haven’t seen one sell for a top BIN.

On the trends of 9s. People seem to want to pay less than or the same price as the card is worth as a raw copy. I generally do worse on auction so I keep everything on BIN/best offer.

Like someone said 10s are not easy to get. I opened 2 base 2 booster boxes snd I got 5 PSA 10s out of the 24 holos because of scratches on the holos right out of the pack. Normally WOTC is pretty good with their production compared to the newer cards but they still had their problems.

It would be nice to start seeing collectors appreciate 9s.

I’m with you.

The price will increase on hard to find 10’s and they will be less and less available so the 9’s will steadily increase in price as collectors realize how awesome they are (see Masaki promos).

Don´t see problems with psa 9’s either, great cards to collectors who don’t have too strict standards for their collections. :blush:

9s could be an overall better value;)

The difference between a 9 and 10 is extremely small a lot of the time. Sometimes making a 10 set is just near impossible. We really do pay a lot more just to not have a slight speck of edge wear or scratch. I’ve decided a PSA 9 gold star set would be good enough for me and I might attempt it in the future.

1 Like

I dont think this would affect the value at all since a seller won’t state in the description: “The card is graded 10 by PSA, however it looks more like a 9”.
and to see it from the pictures is usually nearly impossible