Since we are nearing the next anniversary (30th), and, apparently, Logan Paul is opening another first edition Base Set boosterbox, I thought it would be interesting to do a bit of speculation.
The question then is; what era of the TCG will see the most growth if we get another bull-market. This can be any era, from Gen 1, to Gen 9 (Mega Evolution is a bit to recent).
Lastly, this is just for fun, so if you don´t like this kind of post, I understand. Just ignore it, and the world will keep on spinning either way.
I would argue that another bull-market is indeed approaching, and that the sets that will benefit the most will probably be Sun & Moon sets. These sets are getting somewhat older, and are still (most of them) hovering around 2K. Especially the Tag Team sets, with some of the first Alt Arts, could get another big surge of interest. My second guess would be a tie for WotC sets (since these cards are being found out again now) and Sword & Shield (since they have been stagnant for a bit of time, and are still very popular).
Not necessarily directed at op, but If people think we aren’t still in a bull market it says more about their exposure or lack thereof. I’ve sold more in the past couple months than the prior year. I have 6 packages to ship tomorrow. No modern, so that might be why there is a disconnect.
Yeah, right nog it seems like vintage has taken over the role of modern (which I am very happy to see). But modern has been kind of stagnant from august to december.
Yes yes, allright point made. But it´s more about if it is gonna accelerate ; ) The last few months weren´t that hot for modern. As a matter of fact, I have seen most XY, Sun & Moon, Sw/Sh boxes go down.
if there is any “bull market” effect it will be for other reasons. 2016 was because of pokemon GO. 2020 was because of the response to covid. What we are seeing now is because of the release of Pocket Monsters Pocket. A minor bump of its own is natural of course. Shrouded Fable as a set was hype for all of 3 days, then declared the worst set of all time and abandoned. This is most likely how whatever they do will go down. Be very hype for a brief period, then fall off rather hard. Anything else will be due to the continued momentum from Pocket Monsters Pocket, or some other outside thing. For example, if the American Government just decided to give everyone a few thousand dollars for sucking oxygen again.
However as WiseWailmer wryling implied, we are still in a greedy cycle of activity in pokemon card buying. If I can’t buy a booster box from my local game store for a new to 1 year old set for less than MSRP and still have it feel overpriced, then we are still in a “bull market”. A stupid market I’d call it. But I will leave my angst at that.
Haha, I already responded on this exact statement, but @wisewailmer already made this point, and in a way, you´re right. But, for a lot of era´s, the bull-market definitely left. At least when we´re talking sealed, but a lot of singles also. Things have slowed down for modern.
People are gonna have different opinions of a bull market for a card game. Modern boxes don’t need to go up for it to be a bull market. If a box is less than a year old and double or more MSRP, were in a bull market to me
That’s just not true in North America. So many S/V booster boxes released in the past few years are multiple hundreds of dollars above their distributor market price. SW/SH booster boxes are still pumping multiples of their distributor market price. Sealed is doing just fine - incredibly well, in fact.
You’ll know a real slump when booster boxes aren’t selling for their distributor prices, like what we saw in 2022.
Yeah, I guess we´re talking different definitions. But the thread was more about ´will the era´s that are slumping (anything but the new boxes) start to go up again.´
It is still noteworthy that, despite the fact that we are indeed still in a bull-market, the last 6 months haven´t been kind to a lot of sets.
