Hopefully never.
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Getting burned from both covid and JP 2023 booms is enough to lose a lot of confidence in the cards that have already spiked once before. For now, it’s the English special art’s turn
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In my experience, things tend to go up a lot after you sell.
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Hopefully never
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I have a trip to Vietnam soon, I’ll be biting a couple of bats just for you, if things go well we’ll have Covid-38 in no time and the market will explode!
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It’s prob just a symptom of getting older, but life and everything in it just seems to move at lightning pace these days, and attention turns on a dime. So many distractions. I can barely keep up with “normal” market conditions let alone predict another boom.
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We’re not that old, Gold and Silver was released like what, 1-2 years ago? Oh wait… no… nononononononnnononononono!
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As others have mentioned, it’s really hard to say and it’s unlikely we’ll see a Covid-like situation again where you get that massive exponential move in a short time frame. That was basically the ‘perfect storm’ where you had literally everything playing into the collectibles market at once. Social media/influencers, government ‘handouts’, people sitting at home/nothing to do, lots of savings from WFH, huge nostalgia wave, record low interest rates, crazy gains in the stock market & crypto to sell off and dump the gains into luxury items (Pokemon, Ferrari’s, artwork, real estate, etc).
Not to mention the lockdowns & massive pile up of cards at PSA & BGS and other the grading companies totally skewing the supply of cards for months on end compared to the crazy demand. All of this created a very unique situation that is unlikely to be duplicated again. I’ll never forget the $1000 Jungle Pikachu’s and I just can’t see that happening again.
Anyway, I could be wrong, but I feel like the gains going forward will be more likely to be just linear than exponential like the Covid boom. It is entirely possible we’ll see exponential moves in certain cards/sets (i.e. pre-2020 Japanese cards in 2023 already happened), but across the whole market at once with total insanity? I doubt it.
I think it will really come down more to individual cards/sets going forward that will drive growth. WOTC/vintage has been quiet for a while now since Covid times, and if anything it could be looking more undervalued these days. A lot of hype in modern overall, but I think these cycles and gaps will close up more over time as long as Pokemon remains popular and collectibles continue to grow. I really feel collectibles are becoming a stronger asset class, and younger people are putting money in much different places than the older generations which I think will drive growth as well. It’s simply a different world now, and the approach to money & investing is changing a lot.
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Never, at least not at that velocity. Turning an undervalued $10 card into a fairly priced $100 card is much easier than going from $100 to $1000.
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This is true. So many goals just not enough time it feels like. Plus it feels like your racing against the market so you don’t get priced out
I remember buying an 18 pack lot of 1st edition team rocket on eBay in 2013 because I couldn’t afford a box for $400. Personally, I’m gonna keep dreaming for that day again.
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Agreed with @wisewailmer and others I think 2020 was a once in a life time event. That said, with increased availability of information and exposure you will continue to see volatility on certain items the same as you see with other markets such as commodities/stocks etc. In either case, unless your collection is based on buying modern stonks like Vangoh Pikachu, the very moment they are released, there will always be avenues to cut through the crowds by buying at opportune moments, and remaining patient long term.
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I think market will pop when the current covid kids generation (4-12) who opened/got into pokemon during this time, are in their late 20’s-30’s and have jobs/income to buy pokemon again. Similar to how majority of people who grew up in the 1999-2003 pokemon era boom were late 20’s-30’s when covid hit, and nostalgia brought everyone back.
So my answer is 2040ish
I think the 1999 kids → 2020 adults and 2020 kids → 2040 adults will be very different. If someone who entered/re-entered in 2020 is still around in 2024, they will probably be around in 2040. From now until 2040, there will always be adults collecting. So the kids of today becoming adults of tomorrow won’t create “the first time adults collected” scenario like 2016 and 2020 played out.
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Unpopular opinion incoming, but I think the current market is still very hectic. Cosplay Pikas selling in the thousands with 1k+ pop in PSA 10. The 2016 Battle Festa pushing 5 figures with nearly 1k PSA 10s. Day Lillie selling for $100k+ last year or Play Umbreon selling for $180k recently are just a few examples.
Yeah, there’s no massive influencers hyping up the market but there’s still a lot of cards reaching insane price points. Just not the ones we’d expect. I wouldn’t be surprised if WOTC picks up again & possibly outdoes 2020 yrs from now because more unlikely things have already happened.
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Anybody that thinks hype is dying down needs to go to a Collect-A-Con. Orlando yesterday was absolutely insane. Might not be Covid-boom level craziness but interest in the hobby is jussstt fine.
Also, completely anecdotal but yesterday at the convention there was a lot of interest in Gold Stars and mid-era. Wouldn’t be surprised if that’s because the kids from the mid-2000’s are getting settled in their jobs, have disposable income, and are feeling nostalgic. I think these waves will come and go as different generations grow up.
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I don’t think it’ll be that long. People that were kids during mid era will be in their early-mid 30’s in a few years. My uneducated guess is we see another wave of interest when that happens. Just like what happened a few years ago with vintage.
tbh its a massive room with tons of hype beast whatnot/youtube folks. I cant imagine a more hyped place to be. Its not indicative of the overall market at all
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The problem is a boom implies exponential growth because everytime it happens, the new prices and demand gets baked in. So a subsequent boom has to be even bigger. It’s unsustainable.
Sure, one collect-a-con is busy but that’s still 2020 volume. You’d need to see 10 collect-a-cons packed simultaneously to see the next “boom”. And a localized irl event might not be a good indicator at all but my general point still stands
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just stonk up now and youll be ready for whatever is next
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