We talk a lot about cards that will increase in value and those that are undervalued. But what goes up must eventually come down, even if by a little.
What cards will decrease in value? Within the next 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months? Will be fun to revisit this thread periodically across 2027 and 2028.
One ear
I’m praying some of the stuff from BB/WF starts dropping as it starts to fall out of hype. I should not have to spend $25 on a Maractus card that released a year ago.
I mostly only know about set cards, and it feels like graded set cards are being lifted up by the really expensive 10 prices.
Those 10s will probably stop breaking records at some point. When that happens I don’t think the 10s will get dumped necessarily, but the volatility in 10 pricing could cause a consistent softening up of 8s and 9s.
Right now, 9s have been moving pretty fast because the 10s are going giga nuts, so it becomes easier to justify an impulse at $500, $1,000, even $2,000 for a set card 9
ppl are gonna bag hold hard the above.
whats not going down imo:
The 30th Celebration RGB Mews
All of them
Lose value: everything I hold on to
Gain value: everything that I sell
Hasn’t failed me yet!
Anything that has gone parabolic solely on the grounds of “low pop.”
So basically any set reverse holo that isn’t one of the S-tier stonkable Pokémon.
whenever you sell something let me know. I’d like some affordable pick ups down the line.
Anything after Phantasmal Flames, I’m pretty sure will not be getting any sort of big money increases over a larger span of time. If the Perfect Order Meowth or something gets pumped to $200 again, I think it will fall back down. These J-block sets will have printing until early 2029, so they will definitely be affected by the new 1.27 million square foot printing facility in Morrisville, NC.
It doesn’t matter how cool the art is or how hard the pull rates might be, none of the cards printed this year will increase very much over the span of the next few years, if at all. This is especially true with the 30th, with how much they’re supposedly printing it and how jacked the pull rates are. All these new sets are tiny compared to the rest of this decade, as well. I’m also grouping Ascended with this group because Ascended is a money set, and Pokemon will probably print it into the ground like they did with 151, especially considering it will be in rotation for a full year while the new facility starts to get online. Phantasmal Flames and earlier, I feel like will probably go up a good amount in the next few years. 2025 is not in much risk of reprint anymore, and everything Prismatic and earlier is almost certainly not getting hit with any sort of reprint. I would bet money that the overall value of the Sword & Shield era will at least double in price before the turn of the decade
Everyone here has a really good idea what will go down - It’s such a different Pokemon economy in China - Over here, you find that there are 2 types of collectors, the collectors who got into Pokemon when they studied abroad and the collectors who recently got into the hobby (because Pokemon was only legalised in China in 2023 due to it being seen a gambling mechanic previously)
Over here, people mainly care about whats new, as soon as a new set comes out, everyone sells their cards to buy the new set, and only the people who studied abroad or are more international mainy collect the vintage cards. There is almost a 3 month cycle here where a new set comes out in month 1, Month 2 everything goes up and gets hyped, Month 3 everyone forgets about it and moves onto whats new - it’s a huge contrast compared to the west.
Looking at how different all the markets are, I think the first cards to drop in value will be the newer sets that have come out since 2023, we should consider that most people buying cards now want to keep their cards in mint condition, and when everything is in mint condition, this becomes the norm and the value drops.
The cards that will keep rising I presume are the cards from 2014 and below as all these people who grew up with this era of pokemon now have extra dispensable income as well as older collections that are now in demand, and most these collections where not in mint condition!
Tell me about the 1510 mew promo. Do chinese even care about it
Hahahaha, I was actually in that draw, some kid I play with at the Pokemon Gym (They call tcg shops gyms here) won the card and sold it for like $2500 dollars, people kinda care about it but I think its more of a grail that most people just overlook because they know they will never get it, the cheapest one right now is a PSA 9 selling for 131999cny (Probably around $15000) - The pikachu 151 SR have dropped off dramatically here tho
I’ll throw my hat in and say:
-English reverse holo PSA 10s
-English Lv.X PSA 10s
-English promo PSA 10s < 3 years old
-Modern (JP&EN) PSA 10s < 5 years old
I overpaid on the Chinese exclusive artworks because I pulled the trigger right before the next set came out
Hahaha I think everyone did, I do believe the Chinese exclusives will always be awesome and sort after - I think pokemon in general is on a 5-10 year rise and fall, we have actually probably seen this since 2010, in 2016 there was lots of hype for 20th anniversary, then pokemon Go boosted the cards - everything dropped, then we had covid and the 25th anniversary, everything rose, between the anniversaries everything kind of settled until around 2024/2025 where everything started to hype again for the 30th - I would love to see a physical chart on this!
-Gold Stars
-Ponchos
-DP holos Lv.X
-LC Reverse Holos
For example, nothing.