What is your Average Long term hold for Modern Sealed product?

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So this isn’t a “I JuST goT tHe ChAriZaRD UPC, iS tWo wEEks a gOod LOng-tERm hOLd?” type of question.
Some of my oldish type of products are coming up on 3-4 years that have hit a ROI of 600%. I am really debating on off loading them to put money into some crazy high EV type of product that I see the market missing.
I know Scott has said that if it is Hard to reacquire, then you shouldn’t sell them fast. And never sell anything because you need the money. I understand this mindset, but with the time value of money in mind, it is a question of being priced out of a certain product, opportunity realization, and I guess a small portion of FOMO.
For the veterans of the hobby, when do you decide to let go of your long-term product? Is it when you hit a certain ROI % or just a feeling?
Or are you on a similar collector’s mindset like Scott and never sell?

Interested in what you all have to say :slight_smile:

-Slade

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I just keep all of it forever. I might open some of it up years later for some nostalgia but otherwise I just hoard it.

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I don’t think the percentage of return itself matters much in this decision.

I still have some sealed products from 6 years ago. Some have gone up 10x in value relative to what I paid. I had duplicates that I sold along the way to capture some profit, but the remaining ones I keep a tighter grip on. I feel they are very safe from reprints and the market will only continue to grow In awareness and appreciation of those products in the future.

However, other times a high price appreciation correlates with a feeling that it is better to put the money elsewhere.

Take Evolving Skies for instance. I recently sold all my booster boxes. Could they keep going up? Sure. Yet there is also a high chance that they could be reprinted. It would be truly extraordinary for that box to double in price again from $250 up to $500 in the next couple years. Yet I can think of other items in the hobby that could double in the next two years, and it wouldn’t be seen as extraordinary. I use this sentiment as a general guideline for deciding when to sell and move to other items.

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I think this really depends on a lot of things. I haven’t been holding sealed product and what I do have, I generally intend to keep in my collection, so just take what I am saying with a grain of salt.

You kinda have to decide where/ what margins you’re comfortable selling for. 600% on modern sealed sounds like a done deal to me, but I don’t really have interest in holding loads of boxes. So, I’d probably be more happy putting that money elsewhere.

As for what Scott says; I am not sure modern sealed falls under that ‘difficult to acquire’ umbrella. Again, it depends on what you have (English, Japanese, Booster boxes, ETBs, collection boxes, etc.) I think what he means is to consider that all items are not the same. For example, I am probably not gonna sell my PSA 10 2019 Player’s Ceremony. They’re definitely worth some money, but sourcing mint condition copies to grade is too difficult and costly for me to replicate. I’d feel more comfortable selling an unlimited base set holo because there is more of them and if I really wanted it back, I could probably make that happen. I think Scott was referring to much more rare items; if I had the money, I am sure I could probably reacquire another copy fairly easily of Player’s Ceremony. However, flipping a 2001 Tropical Wind is a completely different story. That is an item that, regardless of how much money you have, may simply just not be available to purchase. That’s an extreme example, but each item has it’s relative scarcity and rarity.

Also, I just want to add; Scott sells cards. There’s items to sell and items to keep, but that’s really going to come down to what you value in your collection, or which items you have confidence in. I think the decision to sell can be a fairly natural process, but it could also be motivated by a need for money. What I got from his statements was to not put yourself in a position where you have to sell; meaning, do not overleverage yourself and get into a spot where you have to let go of some rare, good items, to cover rent or something. You could always sell some of what you have to supplement the purchase, doesn’t have to be all or nothing!

At the end of the day, we’re all gonna make mistakes and that is okay. These decisions are an opportunity to learn the answers to your questions. Don’t let the fear of striking out keep you from playing the game!

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There is a lot of factors that would need to be defined to properly answer your question.

TLDW:If it aligns with your goals go for it, if it doesnt dont.

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2 days because I have no self control and end up opening them all.

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My strategy is buy, forget, and hope I find it years later. Its honestly getting bad because I can’t find certain sets. The other day a repeat buyer asked about buying a case, and I don’t know where I stored that set. :expressionless:

@needszeebs Hit it on the head! Not needing to sell is the best position. I say that from experience. I sold numerous PSA 9 1st Ed base charizards for 1k, thinking I was making moves. Hell, most cards that would be a discount today. The best general strategy: Sell more frequently what you can re-acquire, Sell less frequently what is more difficult to re-acquire.

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This is a good problem to have. Practically pallets of cash :face_exhaling::chart_with_upwards_trend:

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Thank you guys for the useful insight! <3

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Personally, for any type of investment I make in Pokemon or anything else, my window is a minimum of 5 years. It seems most booster boxes will average from 8-10% a year, sometimes more if it’s a strong set that actually goes out of print. I try and keep things as long as possible regardless, but I feel 5 years gives me a good idea of the real value something can have in the longer term.

With certain cards & sets, the perception can change on them for better or worse quite drastically as time goes on, so I think it’s important to have a longer term window if possible.

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About 5 minutes.

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Out of curiosity, how many cases/boxes do you buy of each set? I’m thinking about doing that.

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My personal strategy: buy, hold, forget, and sell when I need the money. The same thing I’ll do with my other (more conventional) investments.

I recently met a gentleman at a card convention. He was unloading his full set of goldstars and shinings PSA 10 to fund his house deposit. I’m probably going to do something similar, transfer the profit into something valuable.

I’ll probably sell when I need to buy a car, an house, or if I lose my job. I built enough patience to resist to fomo. I have few sealed boxes that I bought for £100 and I can sell for £300, but what’s the purpose? What am I going to do with those £200 extra in my pocket? If I can live without, it is not the right time for me to sell.

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Words to live by when it comes to investing. To the moon baby :rocket:

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I am not an investor, I only sell my left overs out of a large collection.
When to sell?

2021 - I sold my Exp, Aqua and Skyridge boosterboxes and a few EX boxes to get money to sponsor my son getting his own house.
2022 - I sold a lot of my PSA 10 to get my other son the same amount of money.

Regrets? No not really. I am even trying to get another set in psa 10 out of my “left over raw”.
There are times you can use the money for a better purpose as collecting.

As for modern. That’s not in my collection, but I do own a store.
I don’t keep much aside, but if I do it’s sold when it doubles in price for sure.
It looks like a 5 year term seems to be working for most product. Sometimes faster.
But it’s a long time to have your money locked up in cardboard.

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The storage space required and damage risk during storage and shipping has me staying away from sealed products completely. 98% of the cards in a modern booster box are worth less than 10 cents. That isn’t for me.

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I only accumulated Dream League, Eevee Heroes, and VMAX Climax. They are fun to open and have good potential.

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A dollar invested today isn’t worth two dollars next month. I buy modern cards and sealed products I like. Put them in binders or storage. Then forget about them for a few years. I’ll revisit them some day in the future (5-10 years). But until then I don’t care if they go up or down in value. I’m still a collector at heart. I think the odds are less that modern products will substantially increase in value due to the shear volume being pumped out.

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