The Giant English Market Thread

[surgenius]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

@surgenius

Circling back. My point about realized loss was because when purchasing high valued cards, at record prices off of PWCC (the broker with the most exposure in the market), I HIGHLY doubt they were looking to be able nor want to flip the card in a Measly two months. While yes, they probably care that the price fell dramatically, as now it has to climb back up. But some people buy and put it in a safe and say I’ll see you In 5 years. Believe I got dubbed as the meme man, because I didn’t articulate the point. Collectibles are not a depreciable asset. So while it sucks that it did go down so much, it really just sucks knowing that had they let the other buyer win and went after the next they could’ve gotten it at a discount. hindsight 2020. I believe that people saying “he doesn’t care if it fall in value he just wanted the card” are on the side of - I don’t think he cares in the short term. Sure he sees it as his investment went down. Charizard went to 40k then back down and then here we are. Alpha lotus went from 400k or something, back down and then up to half a mill (if paid). However, I don’t know if Lugia has the legs to go further than 130k but time will tell. The guy got caught up in competition for a card he wanted.

Obviously not everyone who buys a card as an investment plans on flipping it within 2 months. Some people might be thinking of flipping as soon as they can get a decent return on their investment while others may be thinking of holding for years.

That doesn’t change the fact that the person who bought in at $130k *cares* about the fact that the card sold for $74k a month after they paid for their copy.

Now, is in in the realm of possibility that Lugia will rebound to the point where it’s worth considerably more than $130k in the future, and the person who bought that card can still come out on top if that in fact happens at some point and they hold long enough? Sure.

But I will still roll my eyes when people act as if the $130k Lugia buyer doesn’t care about the fact that another copy sold for 43% less than what they purchased theirs for just a few weeks ago.

Yes I and I said that. Im in that camp as well. But Obviously I’m in the camp that if you look at it as an investment as we are, then as you said, it could rebound and he nets profit. My original statement that got us here was talking about the technicalities of loss/profit/down/up, that’s it. I believe that everybody is agreeing… down = bad, up = good for investment purposes.

[surgenius]

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

@surgenius

Circling back. My point about realized loss was because when purchasing high valued cards, at record prices off of PWCC (the broker with the most exposure in the market), I HIGHLY doubt they were looking to be able nor want to flip the card in a Measly two months. While yes, they probably care that the price fell dramatically, as now it has to climb back up. But some people buy and put it in a safe and say I’ll see you In 5 years. Believe I got dubbed as the meme man, because I didn’t articulate the point. Collectibles are not a depreciable asset. So while it sucks that it did go down so much, it really just sucks knowing that had they let the other buyer win and went after the next they could’ve gotten it at a discount. hindsight 2020. I believe that people saying “he doesn’t care if it fall in value he just wanted the card” are on the side of - I don’t think he cares in the short term. Sure he sees it as his investment went down. Charizard went to 40k then back down and then here we are. Alpha lotus went from 400k or something, back down and then up to half a mill (if paid). However, I don’t know if Lugia has the legs to go further than 130k but time will tell. The guy got caught up in competition for a card he wanted.

Obviously not everyone who buys a card as an investment plans on flipping it within 2 months. Some people might be thinking of flipping as soon as they can get a decent return on their investment while others may be thinking of holding for years.

That doesn’t change the fact that the person who bought in at $130k *cares* about the fact that the card sold for $74k a month after they paid for their copy.

Now, is in in the realm of possibility that Lugia will rebound to the point where it’s worth considerably more than $130k in the future, and the person who bought that card can still come out on top if that in fact happens at some point and they hold long enough? Sure.

But I will still roll my eyes when people act as if the $130k Lugia buyer doesn’t care about the fact that another copy sold for 43% less than what they purchased theirs for just a few weeks ago.

Yes I and I said that. Im in that camp as well. But Obviously I’m in the camp that if you look at it as an investment as we are, then as you said, it could rebound and he nets profit. My original statement that got us here was talking about the technicalities of loss/profit/down/up, that’s it. I believe that everybody is agreeing… down = bad, up = good for investment purposes.

[lowpopping]

@zorloth

@EnlightenedBulbasaur

Sure, I personally think that $130k was a pretty terrible price point to pay for a Lugia. But that’s just my opinion and apparently your opinion too. But our opinion doesn’t change the fact that the buyer almost certainly had investment value in mind when they made the purchase.

I guess what we’re actually arguing here is if:

A) The $130k Lugia buyer had some fat Benjamins burning a hole in their bank account and decided that he absolutely needed to have that card regardless of the cost and he does not care about how much other PSA 10 1st ed Lugias might sell for. Let’s ignore the fact that this buyer had 20 years to buy the card at 1% of the price he bought it for in this scenario (strongly suggesting that the buyer was trying to ride the wave of continued price increases that would continue after their purchase).

B) The buyer at some level paid $130k at least in part because they considered it to be an investment. Therefore they do care about other sales of PSA 10 1st ed Lugias.

People don’t become wealthy in the first place if they’re that careless with money. Anyone spending $130k on something absolutely would care if the price of that thing went down. Anyone saying otherwise doesn’t know wealthy people lol. So I 100% agree with you there.

My main point is that if (and I agree that this seems likely) the person made the $130k purchase with the hope that the card would increase in value further, then they had unreasonable expectations. And so they can’t reasonably be upset when the price they paid doesn’t ‘stick.’

A lot of wealthy people have made their money through inherited wealth or won the lottery or made it via being famous and might not be wise with their money. Look how many celebrities go broke!

[lowpopping]

@admiral

@zorloth

If they expected it to go up in value, then they were being ridiculous lol.

I feel like stuff like this can only be said in hindsight.

If the last one went for $150k at PWCC would you be saying the same thing?

Think about this hypothetical situation, these are your two options:

1. Lugia 1st Edition PSA 10
2. Blastoise 1st Edition PSA 10, Venusaur 1st Edition PSA 10, Mewtwo 1st Edition PSA 10, Hooh 1st Edition PSA 10, Umbreon 1st Edition PSA 10, Espeon 1st Edition PSA 10 and a Neo Genesis 1st Edition Booster Box lol

Which one would you choose?

How many cards have you seen more then 3x their box price? Infact how many cards have you seen simply higher then their box price?

[kingboo64]

@lowpopping

@admiral

I feel like stuff like this can only be said in hindsight.

If the last one went for $150k at PWCC would you be saying the same thing?

Think about this hypothetical situation, these are your two options:

1. Lugia 1st Edition PSA 10
2. Blastoise 1st Edition PSA 10, Venusaur 1st Edition PSA 10, Mewtwo 1st Edition PSA 10, Hooh 1st Edition PSA 10, Umbreon 1st Edition PSA 10, Espeon 1st Edition PSA 10 and a Neo Genesis 1st Edition Booster Box lol

Which one would you choose?

How many cards have you seen more then 3x their box price? Infact how many cards have you seen simply higher then their box price?

I’m gonna take option 2

[zorloth]

@lowpopping

@admiral

I feel like stuff like this can only be said in hindsight.

If the last one went for $150k at PWCC would you be saying the same thing?

Think about this hypothetical situation, these are your two options:

1. Lugia 1st Edition PSA 10
2. Blastoise 1st Edition PSA 10, Venusaur 1st Edition PSA 10, Mewtwo 1st Edition PSA 10, Hooh 1st Edition PSA 10, Umbreon 1st Edition PSA 10, Espeon 1st Edition PSA 10 and a Neo Genesis 1st Edition Booster Box lol

Which one would you choose?

How many cards have you seen more then 3x their box price? Infact how many cards have you seen simply higher then their box price?

The only two cards that I can think of that are definitely worth more than box price in PSA 10:

• Milotic ex from EX Emerald. But that’s an outlier because it’s pop 8 and you pull one every four boxes lol. The Lugia is much easier to pull, though it is roughly as difficult to grade based on the 9:10 pop ratio.
• Charizard holo from Evolutions, which is insanely difficult to grade based on the 9:10 pop ratio

But generally speaking, I agree. It very rarely makes sense for a PSA 10 to be worth more than the box it comes from.

[lowpopping]

@zorloth

@lowpopping

Think about this hypothetical situation, these are your two options:

1. Lugia 1st Edition PSA 10
2. Blastoise 1st Edition PSA 10, Venusaur 1st Edition PSA 10, Mewtwo 1st Edition PSA 10, Hooh 1st Edition PSA 10, Umbreon 1st Edition PSA 10, Espeon 1st Edition PSA 10 and a Neo Genesis 1st Edition Booster Box lol

Which one would you choose?

How many cards have you seen more then 3x their box price? Infact how many cards have you seen simply higher then their box price?

The only two cards that I can think of that are definitely worth more than box price in PSA 10:

• Milotic ex from EX Emerald. But that’s an outlier because it’s pop 8 and you pull one every four boxes lol. The Lugia is much easier to pull, though it is roughly as difficult to grade based on the 9:10 pop ratio.
• Charizard holo from Evolutions, which is insanely difficult to grade based on the 9:10 pop ratio

But generally speaking, I agree. It very rarely makes sense for a PSA 10 to be worth more than the box it comes from.

Yes I mean a population 8 Milotic Ex, much like a population 9 T17 can be exceptions, because they are single digit rarity which is in it’s own league in my opinion

Charizard Evolutions, what is the pull rate in a box?

[wisewailmer]

What do you guys think the increase in popularity of box breaks will have on sealed prices? Literally every box Ive seen move (besides pwcc) has been bought to be opened for marginal profit. People literally message me daily asking for 75% box price so they can make 5 or 6k in profit overnight. As if I don’t know how to operate scissors or something? Idk I may be missing something, maybe some folks think this card phase will not last and just hit the tubo button but I have literally not seen a single box trade hands in the past few months without the sole purpose of breaking it immediately

[qwachansey]

Almost every modern set has individual PSA 10s that are worth more than the box price, which is a new phenomenon due to low pull rates. Prior to Black & White I can’t think of many… Torchic & Charizard gold star, T17, probably come closest but not overtake.

[zorloth]

@wisewailmer

What do you guys think the increase in popularity of box breaks will have on sealed prices? Literally every box Ive seen move (besides pwcc) has been bought to be opened for marginal profit. People literally message me daily asking for 75% box price so they can make 5 or 6k in profit overnight. As if I don’t know how to operate scissors or something? Idk I may be missing something, maybe some folks think this card phase will not last and just hit the tubo button but I have literally not seen a single box trade hands in the past few months without the sole purpose of breaking it immediately

I think it’s already had a pretty massive effect on sealed prices. I think it’s one of the reasons why EX boxes have risen less than WotC boxes over the course of the pandemic. I see like one EX box break a month, whereas WotC boxes are being cracked open left and right. I have no doubt that this has played a pretty large role in where the prices are.

[wisewailmer]

@zorloth

@wisewailmer

What do you guys think the increase in popularity of box breaks will have on sealed prices? Literally every box Ive seen move (besides pwcc) has been bought to be opened for marginal profit. People literally message me daily asking for 75% box price so they can make 5 or 6k in profit overnight. As if I don’t know how to operate scissors or something? Idk I may be missing something, maybe some folks think this card phase will not last and just hit the tubo button but I have literally not seen a single box trade hands in the past few months without the sole purpose of breaking it immediately

I think it’s already had a pretty massive effect on sealed prices. I think it’s one of the reasons why EX boxes have risen less than WotC boxes over the course of the pandemic. I see like one EX box break a month, whereas WotC boxes are being cracked open left and right. I have no doubt that this has played a pretty large role in where the prices are.

its nuts to see people breaking certain ex sets, most tbh because the gold star is the card worth it and most exs havent quite reached heavy pack prices for the most part. It seems like no thought is being put into this

[sherbert13]

@zorloth

@lowpopping

Think about this hypothetical situation, these are your two options:

1. Lugia 1st Edition PSA 10
2. Blastoise 1st Edition PSA 10, Venusaur 1st Edition PSA 10, Mewtwo 1st Edition PSA 10, Hooh 1st Edition PSA 10, Umbreon 1st Edition PSA 10, Espeon 1st Edition PSA 10 and a Neo Genesis 1st Edition Booster Box lol

Which one would you choose?

How many cards have you seen more then 3x their box price? Infact how many cards have you seen simply higher then their box price?

The only two cards that I can think of that are definitely worth more than box price in PSA 10:

• Milotic ex from EX Emerald. But that’s an outlier because it’s pop 8 and you pull one every four boxes lol. The Lugia is much easier to pull, though it is roughly as difficult to grade based on the 9:10 pop ratio.
• Charizard holo from Evolutions, which is insanely difficult to grade based on the 9:10 pop ratio

But generally speaking, I agree. It very rarely makes sense for a PSA 10 to be worth more than the box it comes from.

I think it’s also safe to assume T17 in a 10 is more than the box. Would certainly be interesting to see what one would fetch at PWCC.

[lowpopping]

@wisewailmer

@zorloth

I think it’s already had a pretty massive effect on sealed prices. I think it’s one of the reasons why EX boxes have risen less than WotC boxes over the course of the pandemic. I see like one EX box break a month, whereas WotC boxes are being cracked open left and right. I have no doubt that this has played a pretty large role in where the prices are.

its nuts to see people breaking certain ex sets, most tbh because the gold star is the card worth it and most exs havent quite reached heavy pack prices for the most part. It seems like no thought is being put into this

It’s because at the moment the demand for the ex cards has not caught up with the rarity of the box, the same could be said about a lot of sets such as skyridge

[lowpopping]

@sherbert13

@zorloth

The only two cards that I can think of that are definitely worth more than box price in PSA 10:

• Milotic ex from EX Emerald. But that’s an outlier because it’s pop 8 and you pull one every four boxes lol. The Lugia is much easier to pull, though it is roughly as difficult to grade based on the 9:10 pop ratio.
• Charizard holo from Evolutions, which is insanely difficult to grade based on the 9:10 pop ratio

But generally speaking, I agree. It very rarely makes sense for a PSA 10 to be worth more than the box it comes from.

I think it’s also safe to assume T17 in a 10 is more than the box. Would certainly be interesting to see what one would fetch at PWCC.

Yeah I agree, I think people would jump to own one at 40k usd lol!

[wisewailmer]

@lowpopping

@wisewailmer

its nuts to see people breaking certain ex sets, most tbh because the gold star is the card worth it and most exs havent quite reached heavy pack prices for the most part. It seems like no thought is being put into this

It’s because at the moment the demand for the ex cards has not caught up with the rarity of the box, the same could be said about a lot of sets such as skyridge

Yeah skyridge mint holos for 200?? I bought probably 15 in the last 3 days lol

[lowpopping]

@wisewailmer

@lowpopping

It’s because at the moment the demand for the ex cards has not caught up with the rarity of the box, the same could be said about a lot of sets such as skyridge

Yeah skyridge mint holos for 200?? I bought probably 15 in the last 3 days lol

But I don’t know if I would say it’s a undervalued part of the market, everyone knows how cheap the e series holos are and they are still cheap and didn’t move much all year meanwhile you had mass printed modern set cards kind of eclipse on the e series holos. I’ll still buy em though.

They have everything going for them apart from demand or ‘nostalgia’ which just shows you how important nostalgia is - how mass printed modern cards can outperform almost 20 year old rare mint cards!

[zorloth]

@lowpopping

@wisewailmer

Yeah skyridge mint holos for 200?? I bought probably 15 in the last 3 days lol

But I don’t know if I would say it’s a undervalued part of the market, everyone knows how cheap the e series holos are and they are still cheap and didn’t move much all year meanwhile you had mass printed modern set cards kind of eclipse on the e series holos. I’ll still buy em though.

e-Series moved a TON last year. Just mostly in like April/May.

They have everything going for them apart from demand or ‘nostalgia’ which just shows you how important nostalgia is - how mass printed modern cards can outperform almost 20 year old rare mint cards!

But modern cards also aren’t nostalgic?

[wisewailmer]

I dont mind if they stay stagnant for a bit, gotta get some of the big hitters before they get where they should be

[lowpopping]

@zorloth

@lowpopping

But I don’t know if I would say it’s a undervalued part of the market, everyone knows how cheap the e series holos are and they are still cheap and didn’t move much all year meanwhile you had mass printed modern set cards kind of eclipse on the e series holos. I’ll still buy em though.

e-Series moved a TON last year. Just mostly in like April/May.

They have everything going for them apart from demand or ‘nostalgia’ which just shows you how important nostalgia is - how mass printed modern cards can outperform almost 20 year old rare mint cards!

But modern cards also aren’t nostalgic?

Only some key e series popular pokemon holos saw large relative growth but compared to other sets, most e series holos did not see large % growth.

Modern cards are not nostalgic, they have a few things which I believe led to their huge price increase/large buyer pool:

1. Large consumer demand who love the hobby and like playing/collecting the cards.

2. People who are buying modern product in the hope that they will rise in price just like the rarer vintage did - although the difference here is that people who held vintage product had no idea that the prices would skyrocket like they did today which is why there is much less vintage product as very few people held it. On the other hand it seems to be the norm that many people will buy a case of a modern booster box and just hold it.

3. Cheap - well some I would say are no longer very cheap now.

Whether modern prices will stay high we have to see, this is just my opinion

[zorloth]

@lowpopping

@zorloth

e-Series moved a TON last year. Just mostly in like April/May.

But modern cards also aren’t nostalgic?

Only some key e series popular pokemon holos saw large relative growth but compared to other sets, most e series holos did not see large % growth.

All of the e-Series holos saw pretty significant growth Perhaps not by COVID Pokemon standards, but they still like tripled in price lol.

Modern cards are not nostalgic, they have a few things which I believe led to their huge price increase/large buyer pool:

1. Large consumer demand who love the hobby and like playing/collecting the cards.

2. People who are buying modern product in the hope that they will rise in price just like the rarer vintage did.

Whether modern prices will stay high we have to see, this is just my opinion

Understood and agreed. You originally cited modern cards as an example of nostalgia driving prices, which is why I was confused. Either way, modern cards surpassing e-Series holos in price makes very little sense to me. The difference is rarity is astoundingly large. Though the difference in demand is also astoundingly large (for reasons that I don’t totally get, but to each their own). And demand is what matters most in bull markets – modern cards are a prime example of that.