Ex Team Rocket Returns
This set contains the first three English Gold Star cards (Treecko, Torchic and Mudkip). It also contains a secret rare (Here Comes Team Rocket!). The sample size of Youtube videos is larger than for the last few sets, 14 boxes in total. It yielded two Gold Stars (both of them Mudkip) and one single copy of Here Comes Team Rocket!.
What to make out of this? As discussed in the last post, the sample size is large enough for the low number of Gold Star pulls observed to be remarkable, but probably not enough for it to be statistically relevant. Thus I am assuming the Gold Stars have an overall pull rate of 1:108 packs. Looking at the contemporary discussion (How Rare is Too Rare?? | The PokeGym), this seams about right.
As to how rare the secret rare is, this is a very tricky question as the sample is too small to tell with any certainty. It was likely printed on the same sheet as the holos, and since there are 9 holos per box (36 packs), it could be a H2 card with a pull rate of 1:220, or a H1 card with a pull rate of 1:440. While the latter value is closer to what the sample yielded, I will go for the prior, just to be cautious. I would rather err in modelling the differences in rarity between cards printed on the same sheet too small than too large.
This leads to the following rarity table (“O” denoting the box topper, Charmeleon):
Even without assuming a pull rate of 1:440 for the secret rare, the Gold Stars set a new record for “rarest card so far”, about twice as rare as any non-reverse seen up to this point.
The raw data for the holos and rares is shown below (dashed lines showing the transitions from H8 to H7, H7 to H2 and R9 to R8). If Here Comes Team Rocket! were assumed to be a H1 card, there would be one more H8 card and one fewer H7. There is no need to show raw data for the Pokémon-ex, as they all fit on one sheet an equal number of times.
While no definitive conclusions can be drawn, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dark Dragonite and the Dark Tyranitar with Sand Damage as its Ability, the two cards included as holo variants in the theme decks, were both R8.
I did look at the commons and uncommons for this set. I can’t be sure about the uncommons yet, but the reconstructed commons sheet looks as follows:
† Swinub, Houndour (Rear Kick), Wooper, Houndour (Dark Lift), Spinarak, Psyduck, Larvitar (Fury Attack), Zubat, Cubone, Magnemite, Sandshrew, Hoppip, Koffing, Magikarp, Rattata (Call for Family), Dratini (Dragon Song), Slowpoke, Mareep, Remoraid, Grimer, Rattata (Scramble), Marill, Drowzee, Sentret, Horsea, Voltorb, Ekans, Slugma, Onix, Sandshrew, Hoppip, Wooper, Psyduck, Grimer, Spinarak, Koffing, Dratini (Pound), Remoraid, Larvitar (Light Punch), Zubat, Cubone, Swinub, Larvitar (Fury Attack), Ekans, Slowpoke, Houndour (Rear Kick), Magikarp, Marill, Drowzee, Sentret, Ledyba, Rattata (Scramble), Horsea, Magnemite, Dratini (Dragon Song), Onix, Mareep, Voltorb, Slugma, Houndour (Dark Lift), Wooper, Marill, Sandshrew, Psyduck, Cubone, Zubat, Onix, Larvitar (Light Punch), Hoppip, Spinarak, Larvitar (Fury Attack), Rattata (Scramble), Dratini (Pound), Sentret, Koffing, Magnemite, Grimer, Remoraid, Ledyba, Magikarp, Swinub, Ekans, Rattata (Call for Family), Mareep, Slugma, Horsea, Voltorb, Slowpoke, Drowzee, Houndour (Rear Kick), Cubone, Houndour (Dark Lift), Rattata (Call for Family), Grimer, Mareep, Swinub, Koffing, Dratini (Dragon Song), Psyduck, Sandshrew, Larvitar (Light Punch), Sentret, Hoppip, Voltorb, Ledyba, Rattata (Scramble), Dratini (Pound), Wooper, Magnemite, Spinarak, Drowzee, Slowpoke, Magikarp, Slugma, Marill, Ekans, Zubat, Onix, Horsea, Remoraid, Ledyba †
As with previous sets, Pokémon with two versions tend to be the ones selected to appear fewer times on the sheet.
The reverses were likely printed on a 110 card sheet, as a model with 15 reverse commons printed on the sheet twice fits the data much better than a model using a 121 card sheet:
