Unbroken Bonds
For this set, as described in my introductory post on the Sun & Moon series, I am assuming 3.6 “regular” Pokémon-GX, 1.1 full art Pokémon-GX and 1.3 full art Trainers/secret rares. This set no long er contains Prism Star cards. As to the composition of the full art Trainers/secret rares sheet, this is the third and final Sun & Moon set for which my model assumes different rarities for the secret rares (the other two being Sun & Moon Base Set and Celestial Storm) as this model seems to best fit the raw data: each of the 6 full art Trainers printed 5 times on the sheet, 10 of the 20 secret rares 4 times and the other 10 3 times. (Alternatively, another model would be the 6 full art Trainers and 16 secret rares printed 4 times and the remaining 4 secret rares 3 times, but that would yield 0.99 secret rares per box on average, which appears to be a bit much.) The rarity table looks as follows:
Note that the two non-holo rares which are featured as theme deck exclusive holos, Mewtwo and Zeraora, appear to be short-printed. I also feel confident enough from the raw data (presented further below) to assume that Butterfree, Meowstic, Persian, Purugly, Raichu and Wigglytuff are the 6 R4 rares.
The raw data (including that compiled from Derium’s 1,080 pack opening, and TheGameCapital’s 2,592 pack opening) is shown below. The “overlap” are the cards in one case opened by TheGameCapital on Youtube which I included in my sample. I subtracted the pulls from that case so as to not count them twice.
The reconstructed uncommons sheet looks as follows:
† Beast Bringer, Hitmontop, Gliscor, Frogadier, Rhydon, Wartortle, Cleffa, Porygon2, Ultra Forest Kartenvoy, Golbat, Metapod, Torracat, Poliwhirl, Gloom, Dodrio, Raticate, Weepinbell, Fearow, Charjabug, Pyukumuku, Togetic, Fairy Charm L, Krokorok, Graveler, Hitmontop, Chatot, Molayne, Frogadier, Welder, Lairon, Gliscor, Triple Acceleration Energy, Energy Spinner, Rhydon, Green’s Exploration, Tyrogue, Happiny, Metal Core Barrier, Tentacruel, Ultra Forest Kartenvoy, Dusk Stone, Haunter, Lt. Surge’s Strategy, Electromagnetic Radar, Cleffa, Giovanni’s Exile, Graveler, Porygon2, Martial Arts Dojo, Fairy Charm L, Poliwhirl, Devolution Spray Z, Metapod, Koga’s Trap, Dust Island, Pyukumuku, Fire Crystal, Weepinbell, Surprise Box, Torracat, Energy Spinner, Charjabug, Chip-Chip Ice Axe, Samson Oak, Janine, Raticate, Triple Acceleration Energy, Fairy Charm Ability, Tyrogue, Stealthy Hood, Chatot, Electromagnetic Radar, Frogadier, Beast Bringer, Power Plant, Lairon, Green’s Exploration, Wartortle, Gloom, Haunter, Cleffa, Happiny, Dust Island, Golbat, Tentacruel, Pokégear 3.0, Molayne, Giovanni’s Exile, Dusk Stone, Raticate, Lt. Surge’s Strategy, Samson Oak, Porygon2, Dodrio, Metapod, Fearow, Graveler, Metal Core Barrier, Fire Crystal, Devolution Spray Z, Togetic, Koga’s Trap, Power Plant, Charjabug, Torracat, Surprise Box, Chatot, Lairon, Martial Arts Dojo, Fairy Charm Ability, Chip-Chip Ice Axe, Tyrogue, Janine, Pokégear 3.0, Triple Acceleration Energy, Tentacruel, Stealthy Hood, Happiny, Welder, Haunter, Krokorok †
Edit 2024/04/26: added additional sample (TheGameCapital) to raw data; added note on alternative composition for full art Trainers/secret rares sheet