The English Pokémon card rarity guide

Team Up

Since the last update to this thread, I have made a few changes. First of all, I decided that the sequence length used in my models of 180 packs was unsatisfactory for modelling the Sun & Moon series sets, so I changed it to 360. I am thus able to adjust box ratios for different types of cards in increments of 0.1 per box, instead of 0.2. I made use for this for Burning Shadows as well as Lost Thunder, and am doing so for Team Up as well. I also updated the introductory post for the Sun & Moon series with the new models for each set. Furthermore, I decided to go back to the first four XY Series sets (XY Base Set, Flashfire, Furious Fists and Phantom Forces) and changed the sequence length from 216 packs to 360; this has a small effect on the pull rates as well.

The second change I made was that I realized that when reconstructing uncut sheets, looking at complete boxes instead of individual packs means it is actually relatively easy to reconstruct uncommons sheets (I intend to make a special post about that in the future), so I added the info on the uncommons for Celestial Storm and Lost Thunder.

Now, to Team Up. The rarity table looks as follows:

For the holos, the raw data looks as follows - the sample size is to small to say anything about individual card rarities:

For the non-holo rares, it appears that Blastoise and Charzard, which appear as theme deck exclusive holos, are short-printed - pretty heavily, likely as R2 cards; also, I feel confident from the raw data that Galvantula is the sole R5 card:

There is nothing remarkable about the Prism Star cards or about the “regular” Pokémon-GX (like for earlier sets, I am also using the data from Derium’s videos):


For the full art Pokémon sheet, I am assuming it also includes the alt arts, as the holofoil used appears to be the same as for the other full arts. I can see no pattern of alt arts being rarer that other full arts:

For the full art Trainers/secret rares sheet, my estimate is that all these cards are printed 4 times each on the sheet and thus have the same rarity. I can see no pattern of secret rares (highlighted in red) being rarer than full art Trainers:

Finally, a word on the uncommons. I reconstructed the sheet - the 23 C2 cards are the 22 Trainers, plus Jynx - but as for some other sets (though interestingly not for Celestial Storm or Lost Thunder), I noticed certain parts of the sheet have a tendency for the cards there to get flipped around. Here it seems to be the sequence where Kakuna is followed by Rapidash (underlined below), and often either one or the other card seems to go missing - so there I might have gotten the sequence wrong:

† Spiritomb, Heliolisk, Jasmine, Judge Whistle, Cosmoem, Persian, Lavender Town, Nidorino, Dangerous Drill, Hitmonchan, Dragonair, Unidentified Fossil, Rapidash, Evelyn, Nanu, Farfetch’d, Alolan Graveler, Brock’s Grit, Pupitar, Electrocharger, Charmeleon, Water Memory, Omanyte, Kangaskhan, Heliolisk, Sabrina’s Suggestion, Torracat, Jynx, Hitmonlee, Dana, Kabuto, Nita, Nidorina, Doublade, Flaaffy, Morgan, Spiritomb, Viridian Forest, Tentacruel, Ingo & Emmet, Wartortle, Tauros, Persian, Metal Goggles, Golduck, Grass Memory, Kakuna, Rapidash, Return Label, Kangaskhan, Cosmoem, Hitmonchan, Jasmine, Dragonair, Torracat, Brock’s Grit, Pokémon Communication, Flaaffy, Omanyte, Tauros, Lavender Town, Wartortle, Heliolisk, Buff Padding, Kabuto, Fairy Charm UB, Charmeleon, Unidentified Fossil, Farfetch’d, Tentacruel, Evelyn, Pupitar, Kakuna, Nidorino, Judge Whistle, Nanu, Hitmonlee, Doublade, Dangerous Drill, Alolan Graveler, Omanyte, Water Memory, Golduck, Dana, Spiritomb, Viridian Forest, Rapidash, Electrocharger, Hitmonchan, Grass Memory, Persian, Farfetch’d, Cosmoem, Dragonair, Ingo & Emmet, Charmeleon, Morgan, Flaaffy, Jynx, Kangaskhan, Nidorina, Sabrina’s Suggestion, Alolan Graveler, Nita, Tauros, Torracat, Kabuto, Nidorino, Fairy Charm UB, Wartortle, Pupitar, Pokémon Communication, Hitmonlee, Metal Goggles, Golduck, Doublade, Tentacruel, Return Label, Nidorina, Kakuna, Buff Padding †

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