Furious Fists
As mentioned in my last post, I am assuming the same box ratios for this set as for Flashfire, i.e. 7.1 holos, 3.5 Pokémon-EX/secret rares and 1.4 full arts. There are two secret rares in the set, Mega Heracross EX and Mega Lucario EX. To obtain a secret rare in about every third box, my guess is each one is printed 5 times on the (likely 10x10) Pokémon-EX sheet. The rarity table looks as follows:
As can be seen in the table, as in XY base set, the two rares featured as holos in the theme decks - Pangoro and Sylveon - appear to have lower pull rates than the other rares due to the raw data below; assigning them R4 rarity matches the raw data nicely:
The fact that the sample data only contains a single full art Battle Reporter is likely not relevant. A quick glance at the PSA population report shows 104 Battle Reporters compared to 107 Fossil Researchers (there are 168 Korinnas, but that is a “waifu” card), so I am assuming it is just a coincidence. (Generally I am sceptical about using the population report for estimating card rarities due to a card’s popularity influencing how often it is graded, but occasionally it can be useful.)
I reconstructed the reverse sheet, which looks as follows:
† Lickitung, Dedenne, Gothita, Clefairy (Moonblast), Hawlucha, Shroomish, Electivire, Vibrava, Fighting Stadium, Machop, Tyrantrum, Cubchoo, Gothorita, Mienfoo, Pikachu, Pangoro, Bellsprout, Thundurus, Lickilicky, Focus Sash, Poliwag, Drapion, Skorupi, Machoke, Golett, Maintenance, Sylveon, Shelmet, Hypno, Vigoroth, Fossil Researcher, Eevee, Flygon, Trapinch, Hitmonlee, Slakoth, Mountain Ring, Noivern, Magmar, Jynx, Watchog, Full Heal, Drowzee, Tornadus, Patrat, Hitmonchan, Machop, Sail Fossil, Slaking, Torchic, Gothitelle, Battle Reporter, Jaw Fossil, Makuhita, Weepinbell, Clauncher, Hitmontop, Gothita, Sparkling Robe, Leafeon, Noibat, Golurk, Energy Switch, Korrina, Poliwag, Accelgor, Electabuzz, Mienshao, Super Scoop Up, Clefairy (Moonlight), Victreebel, Shroomish, Magmortar, Pancham (Bad-Influence Evolution), Pancham (Comet Punch), Mienfoo, Skorupi, Scraggy, Combusken, Tool Retriever, Cubchoo, Blaziken, Bellsprout, Politoed, Tyrunt, Strong Energy, Golett, Pikachu, Lickitung, Poliwhirl, Training Center, Eevee, Poliwrath, Shelmet, Glaceon, Scrafty, Slakoth, Patrat, Breloom, Noibat, Amaura, Herbal Energy, Trapinch, Clawitzer, Magmar, Beartic, Clefable, Makuhita, Clauncher, Hariyama, Plusle, Raichu, Drowzee, Scraggy, Machamp, Torchic, Aurorus, Klefki, Electabuzz, Minun, Landorus †
The choice which reverse commons appear only once on the sheet is hardly a coincidence: the two Clefairy, Pancham of which there is a second, uncommon, variant in the set, and Plusle and Minun.
Edit 2024/03/24: Changed sequence length from 216 to 360. This slightly affects pull rates for holos and secret rares.