The English Pokémon card rarity guide

Flashfire

For Flashfire, as mentioned in the introductory post to the XY series above (“Introduction to the XY Series - Which Sequence Length Should I Use?”), I am going with the hypothesis that the secret rares (Mega Kanghaskhan EX and the two Mega Charizard EX) are printed on the same sheet as the regular Pokémon-EX, as the card stock and holofoil pattern seem the same. As mentioned in that introductory post, I am assuming 7.1 holos, 3.5 “regular” Pokémon-EX/secret rares and 1.4 full arts per box on average, which is also my guess for the box ratios in the next set, Furious Fists. As to how many secret rares were printed on the (likely 10x10) Pokémon-EX sheet, the raw data suggests secret rares are about one in every third box, as with most Black & White Series sets, so I am assuming each secret rare is printed 3 times on the sheet. The rarity table thus looks as follows:

The raw data for the holos, rares, Pokémon-EX/secret rares and full arts as given below, the dashed lines indicating where the transition from H16 to H15, etc., would occur:

image



image

Druddigon is a very good candidate for the H16 card. The two rares featured as holofoil cards in the theme decks (Meowstic and Heliolisk) don’t appear rarer than the other rares - unlike how the case seams to be in XY base set.

I reconstructed the reverse set, and the 30 RE2 cards are all commons. It looks as follows:

† Spritzee, Krokorok, Roselia, Startling Megaphone, Pineco, Barbaracle, Bergmite, Floatzel, Buizel, Ultra Ball, Sentret, Pokémon Center Lady, Flabébé (Aromatherapy), Litleo (Fire Mane), Avalugg, Geodude, Furfrou, Shinx, Protection Cube, Pidgey, Fiery Torch, Spheal, Shiftry, Duskull, Maractus, Luxio, Goomy, Blacksmith, Dusknoir, Caterpie, Weavile, Lysandre, Skrelp, Pyroar, Scraggy, Rapidash, Helioptile, Magnetic Storm, Buneary, Florges, Stunky (Smokescreen), Skuntank, Seedot, Floette (Flower Veil), Milotic, Flabébé (Razor Leaf), Torkoal, Pidgeotto, Stunky (Collect), Feebas, Carbink, Ponyta, Scrafty, Binacle, Dragalge, Sneasel (Icy Wind), Dusclops, Litleo (Combustion), Miltank, Roselia, Espurr, Druddigon, Spritzee, Forretress, Litleo (Fire Mane), Pidgeot, Sandile, Graveler, Fletchling, Shinx, Trick Shovel, Spheal, Pineco, Sentret, Durant, Scraggy, Buizel, Metapod, Bergmite, Pal Pad, Fletchinder, Goomy, Luxray, Skrelp, Goodra, Caterpie, Snorlax, Pidgey, Nuzleaf, Duskull, Geodude, Sealeo, Stunky (Collect), Heliolisk, Binacle, Butterfree, Helioptile, Furret, Stunky (Smokescreen), Roserade, Litleo (Combustion), Flabébé (Razor Leaf), Luvdisc, Sandile, Meowstic, Seedot, Qwilfish, Buneary, Lopunny, Floette (Petal Blizzard), Espurr, Sneasel (Scratch), Feebas, Sneasel (Icy Wind), Sacred Ash, Golem, Fletchling, Walrein, Pokémon Fan Club, Ponyta, Sliggoo †

Edit 2024/03/24: Changed sequence length from 216 to 360. This slightly affects pull rates for holos as well as full arts.