# The English Pokémon card rarity guide

**URL:** <https://www.elitefourum.com/t/the-english-pokemon-card-rarity-guide/39762>\
**Category:** Articles\
**Tags:** supply, wotc, rarity, resource\
**Created:** [February 18, 2023, 5:19pm UTC](https://www.elitefourum.com/t/the-english-pokemon-card-rarity-guide/39762 "2023-02-18T17:19:39Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
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**Author:** ![sturzflugbombardieru](https://efour.b-cdn.net/user_avatar/www.elitefourum.com/sturzflugbombardieru/32/2178_2.png) [@sturzflugbombardieru](https://www.elitefourum.com/u/sturzflugbombardieru)\
**Post date:** [November 25, 2023, 10:13am UTC](https://www.elitefourum.com/t/the-english-pokemon-card-rarity-guide/39762/119 "2023-11-25T10:13:25Z")

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**Legendary Treasures**

Though officially a “regular” set and sold in booster boxes, this set has in common with “special” or “holiday” sets that the odds of pulling a “hit” - in this case a Pokémon-EX, Full Art (from the Radiant Collection sub-set) or secret rare, or even just a holo - are much higher in total than for other sets.

Let’s look at the pack composition first. Each pack contains 4 commons, 2 uncommons, a reverse slot, a rare slot, and 2 cards from the Radiant Collection subset, of which the first is either an uncommon or an ultra rare (Pokémon-EX or full art) and the second is always a common.

The reverse slot contains either a reverse or a holo, with each option being equally likely, i.e. a box should on average contain 18 holos. (Side note: At some point I might make a post on how boxes went from very reliably containing a specific number of holos, Pokémon-ex etc. in the WotC and early TPCI eras to showing more variance for recent sets.)

The rare slot contains either a rare, a Pokémon-EX or a secret rare (gold Reshiram an Zekrom); there are no full arts in the regular set. The pull rates, based on the sample of YouTube videos, seem to be 6 Pokémon-EX per box, 1 secret rare in every third box, and thus 29.67 rares per box.

Here is the rarity table for the set:

 ![image](https://efour.b-cdn.net/uploads/default/original/3X/3/2/32ee171f71e621965797261bd4fc5b1d49b4957e.png)

The first thing that strikes my eyes is that the reverses are quite rare - not surprising as they are only 1 in every 2 packs. I will also note that to my knowledge this set, unlike a lot of special sets, does not contain any reverse basic energy cards, though I didn’t go so far as to re-watch any YouTube footage of pack openings to verify this. If I am mistaken, I would greatly appreciate correction.

There isn’t much to say about the holos, rares, Pokémon-EX and secret rares. The raw data for these cards is as follows (dashed lines indicating where the transition from H5 to H4, etc., would occur; secret rares not shown as they likely both have the same exact rarity):

 ![image](https://efour.b-cdn.net/uploads/default/original/3X/4/5/4523ec4b8073ee2b4aa06a35a31b83d12bb60be7.png)  
 ![image](https://efour.b-cdn.net/uploads/default/original/3X/1/a/1a23595cb4cd1952d130385531c566295c3cbbb6.png)  
 ![image](https://efour.b-cdn.net/uploads/default/original/3X/4/1/418c40779709ea5594aeb5cb9f966ba72ebd0065.png)

As to the Radiant Collection, the fact that the common is always the second card of the two in the pack indicates that two separate sheets were used for printing them. I am assuming the commons sheet is a 11x11 sheet since there is no reason it shouldn’t be - no cards have illustrations going all the way to the edge. The raw data for this sheet I labelled SPb is unremarkable:

![image](https://efour.b-cdn.net/uploads/default/original/3X/c/0/c046be22850a48fcaa94448a7faf8a55889b0a73.png)

The Radiant Collection uncommons and ultra rares are more interesting. The sub-set has 9 uncommons, 1 “regular” Pokémon-EX (Meloetta EX) and 5 full arts, of which 4 are Pokémon-EX and 1 (Reshiram) is not. A photo showing part of the sheet can be seen at [Uncut Sheets](https://pokemuseum.weebly.com/uncut-sheets.html). Importantly, so can the complete uncut sheet for the uncommons and ultra rares from the second Radiant Collection, that in the Generations set. The latter is a 10x10 sheet. Looking at the Legendary Treasures sheet, particularly the Shaymin EX in the bottom row, it is clear there is some spacing between the cards, so I would assume the uncommons/ultra rares sheet from the first Radiant Collection is also a 10x10 sheet.

The visible part of the sheet contains 48 (69.57%) uncommons and 21 (30.43%) ultra rares. The raw data showed 71.85% uncommons and 28.15% ultra rares. The sample size is not nearly large enough to conclude what the exact ratio is, so I will be assuming each of the 6 ultra rare is printed 5 times on the sheets (in total 30) and the 9 uncommons are printed either 7 or 8 times on the sheet (in total 70). I like this model better that a 28 to 72 ratio as it gives all the ultra rares the same pull rate. Here is the raw data:

 ![image](https://efour.b-cdn.net/uploads/default/original/3X/7/7/772ab945b53360e4c24b0ed10a912a1580874f3c.png)

This concludes the Black & White series. In my next post, I will give an introduction to the XY series, and look into the question whether the “sequence length” - the maximum number of packs after which the pattern of cards inserted starts to repeat - of 6 boxes (1 case) I have been postulating still fits the raw data, or whether a different sequence length ought to be used.

I am also thinking about covering the Sun & Moon series and subsequent sets, though there are still some questions I need to delve into before I can do so.

Edit 2024/02/11: I slightly edited the model as to the ratio between Radiant Collection uncommons and Radiant Collection ultra rares (SPa sheet).

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