Not an apples to apples comparison since it’s 30 days in April vs 29 days in May, but interesting information nonetheless. This data includes all Japanese sets as well, but probably not as many Japanese promos as the OP’s data.
If anything I think the chart @rainbow supplied reflects the continued ascent of the market. You have the volume of sales down by almost 40% but the total value of sales down 7%. That shows a dramatic increase in prices. If the prices suddenly became identical to early April prices, we would likely begin to see equal or higher sales volume. I think @rainbow is right that you could interpret this as ‘softening demand,’ but I think only with a major caveat: that the prices have risen dramatically.
The bottom line is: every market experiences resistance when there’s a dramatic surge in prices. I have a bridge to sell anyone who expected the sales volume to stay flat as prices continued to grow exponentially. We’d see a rebound in sales volume if prices suddenly dropped. I find rainbow’s data fascinating, and I encourage him/her to continue posting it. But I think the characterization of the market as currently experiencing ‘softening demand’ is pretty misleading.
Interesting. Just to add context to this, the fact that Japanese set cards (from any era) and modern English cards are so much easier to grade as 10s explains a lot of this data. The numbers would look quite different if you kept it strictly WOTC, for example.
Really interesting – from Terapeak, I’m assuming? This data illustrates what really appears the be happening: sales volume is down due to higher prices. There’s only a slight decline in revenue but a substantial decline in sales volume. My interpretation (which is by no means authoritative) is that the higher prices are, more or less, sticking. People are spending almost as much but receiving less for it.
This data also puts into perspective just how small the market cap is. Obviously, this is only PSA cards, but it still shows just how niche the market still is. It’s expanding, but still not nearly as large as it has the potential to be – especially with the near-universal appreciation for the Pokemon franchise among 20-35 year olds (in America, at least). As the discretionary income of the this age range increases (as it almost assuredly will), I wouldn’t be surprised to see a dramatic increase in the market cap over the next few decades (if, of course, the hobby remains healthy and active, which all signs indicate it will).
I agree with this take, but keep in mind that the data presented only captures a fragment of the actual money being spent. Pokemonprice.com misses a ton of the sales on eBay, not to mention all the sales that occur off of eBay.
The data is better for measuring how sales change over time rather than using it as a measure of the total value of the Pokemon TCG market.
Oh, is this data from Pokemonprice.com? I assumed it was from Terapeak, which is literally owned by eBay and has all of its sales data. Just did a quick search of “PSA Pokemon” on there:
It appears that the total sales for items with “PSA” and “Pokemon” in the title on eBay was almost $2.4 million over the past month. Of course, the actual amount is more because of private sales – but I have to imagine that the vast majority of sales are happening on eBay.
This data is from ş̵̨̧̛͈̗̪̦̝͇͓̯̹̰͖̬̳̖̞̗̟̹̂̍́́̉̒̽̔̋̈́̏̀̉͐͆̋́̀̓̒̀͒̾̅̉̅̾̋̇͒̎̃͗͂́̆̈́̽̎̓̑̽̈̿̒̕͘͘͘͘̕͠͝͝͠͝ͅę̸̛̤͍̩͔͚͔͕̱̩̫̼͕̯͇̫̫́́̔̐̀͗̃͌̀͌͐̿̀̆̆͗̅̑̆̽̄̇͂̋̒̇̐́͌̃̋̋̆̓̈́͛̒͌̈́͗̒̏̂̈́̇̄̊̇̓͛̋̓̕̚̕͘͜͠͝͠ç̶̡̡̡̡̧̢̲͓͕̟̭͇̫̘̖͚̲̬̞͉͙̼̲̼̜̳̝̮̪̪͕̺͍̰̼̗̤͈͉͉͙͚͚̠̩̣̻̥̜̮̮̫̭͖͉̓̈́͜͜͝ͅr̴̨̨̢̨̧̨̢̧̧̡̨̛̛̺̦̺̖͈̮̰͉͉̲̤̦̭̼̻̥̹̳̘̣̬̰̼̪̱̟̭̜͎̗̙̼̗͎̖̟̣͍͓̙̠̭̀̌̂̀͑̈́̓̒͊̍͗̈́̎̈́̃̓̀̈́́̅̒̾̏͐͐͛̅̍̌̐́̀̓́͝͝ͅͅë̶̡̨̢̢̨̧̧̡͍͇̼͍̲̜̟̮̼̜̦̣͕̮̻̱̞͍̝̜̙̬̭͚͍̪̗̻̬̰̥͕̪̼̜͎̗̬͚͇̳́͛̈́͆̀͌̽̈̋̀̈́͌̃̇́̾͛͒̿̃̈́́͗̿̈͋̇̀̾̒͊̽̍̌̋̏͆̍̔̋̚̕͠͝͝ͅͅt̵̨̧̧̧̢̛̛̛͇̣̦͍͍̺͚̝̳̹̦̼̟͕̺̝̦͇̦̹̝̮̘͎̫̳̝̹͔̦̬͔̝̳̫͔̮̣̪̜̼̠͉͙͍̜͎̍͊̈́͌͌͌͂̔̈̈́̍͊͆̋̔̄̽͆̂͗̆̓̃̽̅̃̈́̉̍̓̓̌̐̕͜͜͜͝͝ͅ ̸̧̢̧̢̧̛̛̛̛̛̤͇̣̱̪͕͙͕̲̞͔̜͓͕̥̹̲͎͔̳̬̤͖̤̰̯̟̪̦͖̳̲̮̮͎̭̲̺̯͈̭͚̹̤͈̥͖̝̺̩̰͙͍̭̹͖̤͓̖̰̇͌̓̇̓̀̑̎̎̏̍̉́̔̐́́͑̃̈́͊̈́̂͊̋̏̓̇͂̋̌̄̓̆͒̓͋͒́̓͂̇͗̋͒̎̀̃̃͆̆̈̈́́̕͘̕͘̚͘̕̚̚͜͝͝ͅͅś̶̢̧̨̧̢̨̡̛̛̟̻̤̜̼̭̗̺͙̼̱͖̝͚̱̠̗̥͎̗͙̣̼͚̙̫̠̺̭͈̫͈̜͍͇̪̲̹̭͒̒̈́̓͌̾͋́̂̊͊͑̈́̋̐́̂͊̾̊̀̈͌͊̈́̈́͑̀̀̍̈̈̓͂̒̒́͑̏͋̽̈́̏̊̉̅́̇̎̿͐̿̓͊̃̆͘̚͝͝͝o̶̧̱͕̹͖͔͂̾́̊̌̇̅̆͌͐̿̈́̇̏̈́̆̾͛̂̈̒̿̊̇͝u̷̧̡̡̢̳̣̱̩̖͉̗̠̳̱̠̱͍̬͇̙͕̲̰̲̜̣̹̠͍͍͈̻̝͖͕͍̪̻̟̫̦̙̘̭͎̪̼͙̝̼͍̣̮̣̤͙̫̩̐́̓͐̀̉́̈̓́̈̇̈́͊͊̇͗̔̋̂̿̐́̈͒͌͑͋̽͗̈́́͂̑̂̈͒̐̀̀̊̔̔̎̋̿̐͑̚̕͘̚̚͜͜͝͠͝͝r̷̨̨̧̧̡̥̻̖̙̟̤̹̪̣̮̯̩̞̺̩͈̜̙̫̰͙̲͖͉̳̹͙͙̣̩̠̫͍̘̫͖̖̳͙̮̺̱̟͕̩̻̖̪͙͈̖̣̝̦̋̽̏̾̈̇͒̃̓̂̈̿̌̎̆̌̆̓͛́̑̉̽̓͑̽̆̎͛̀̿̍̚̚͘͜͜͝͠͝͠ͅč̸̢̡̧̢͈̺͓̤͈͈͉̱̯̘̪͕̙̖̗̝͎̺͉̩̼̹̜̫͔̼̟͇͉̣̋͋͊͌̀͊̈́̃̾̓͒̋̒̏͂͊̋̊͗͗͌̾́̓̎̆̎̓̇̈́͑̈̓͒̿͑͑̓̐̿̆̀͂́͐́̈́̐́̈́̋̄͆͆̄̾̽̿̈́̏͋́͘̚͘͘͜͜͝ę̸̡̬͓͙̬̫̟̖̲͔̖̩̫͖͍͉̖͖̼̼̤͙̣͇̀̀̾͌͒̀̊̔̑̒͌͐̈͌̈́̓͋̂͐͂̈̀́͋̾̊̃̈́̀̂͗́̈́͆̑̂̍͂̀͌͂̋̀̏͋̋̏̚̕̕̚͝͝͠͝
Exactly. The actual presented numbers aren’t useful because it quantifies only an unsubstantiated subset of the actual sales market - what is interesting is the trend line in general. I appreciate the OP for sharing the graph I just hope people take it for its visual representation rather than the actual numbers.
Sorry to poop on the party after you guys have already discussed the data in that graph but the scraping for the previous month doesn’t complete until a few days after the month ends as there’s so many cards to go through … soo that graph in the OP has changed
Also take into account most japanese shops on ebay stopped listing anything new or put themselves on vacation. The fact that sales count is still up from pre-covid and sales volume is nearly still as strong as the biggest month of all time for pokemon is kind of a huge deal especially when you consider the lack of supply from Japanese sellers which were doing quite well before.
Edit: oh i just saw pierce’s post. Thats hilarious. I think Im gonna go buy a jump to conclusions mat.
Come on, there are plenty of options for cards right now:
Buy the PSA copy that’s priced so high it will still be sitting there during the NEXT pandemic
Buy PSA the copy that’s priced right but you almost drop your mouse when you look at the back pictures
Hope to get lucky with saved searches and fast clicking
Buy the raw card from the guy with low feedback, bad pictures and the description, “card is in good condition”
I kid, but the inventory does seem really thin out there. There are many cards I need where I can’t find any decent copy no matter what I would be willing to pay. And it even feels like the raw cards are getting lower in quality. or when they’re not they’re being bid like graded cards per a convo in another thread.
